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Will the DOJ hold Trump responsible for Jan. 6?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Now that Congress recommends charges against Trump, will the DOJ take action?
Increasingly, the answer appears to be yes, especially now that the attorney general has a special counsel on the case, and he has recused himself, that makes it a lot easier to proceed with charges. This is unprecedented territory. We've never seen a Congress actually refer criminal charges of a former president before. But of course, former President Trump was also pretty unique historically for the United States. Either way, he's considerably damaged much more so than he was after January 6th. You remember then Kevin McCarthy went down and was kissing the ring in Mar-a-Lago within a few days, that's not happening this time around. So it's a much bigger hole for him to dig himself out of, even though he's ostensibly running for the presidency already, we don't see much of that yet.
With Putin making a rare visit to Belarus, is further escalation ahead in the Ukraine war?
Yes, though I'd be very surprised if it's coming from Belarus. In fact, I expect that the big new counteroffensive is not coming from the Russians, but rather the Ukrainians, as soon as the ground is hard enough to easily get tanks through and the like. Which would probably be an effort to either take a Melitopol, Mariupol, one of those areas back that would sever the land bridge between Russia and Crimea. That is what it appears the Ukrainians are trying to do, and if they were to make it all the way down to the coast, then potentially Crimea is within HIMARS's range. That would be quite a significant escalation in terms of Ukraine's position and would be deeply concerning for Putin and for Russia. Watch this space over the coming weeks.
A "Paris Agreement for nature." More talk or are the biodiversity targets set at COP15 achievable?
They are achievable. It's interesting. A week ago, all the developing countries basically walked out to show they were angry that the West wasn't moving, the wealthy countries weren't moving in favor of progress at these talks. These are biodiversity talks that's very different from carbon emission talks. The big announcement is a commitment by everyone attending, which is pretty much the world, that 30% of the world's nature will be protected by 2030. It's a start. We're in a hole there as well, especially given that over half of the animal life on the planet in the last 50 years has already gone away. One of the most depressing statistics I've ever read. But it's nice to see that the world recognizes this and is starting to turn all of that around. It's taking too long. It's a little too late. But nonetheless, it is a hell of a lot better than not doing it at all.
Argentina's Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner holds a party rally
What We’re Watching: Argentina VP’s guilty verdict, NY goes after Trump, a Sudanese agreement, sex ban in Indonesia
Argentine VP guilty of corruption
In a verdict sure to deepen divides in an already highly polarized country, an Argentine court on Tuesday found Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner guilty of a billion-dollar graft scheme from during her 2007-2015 presidency. She has been sentenced to six years and banned from holding public office. It’s the first time a sitting Argentine Veep has been convicted of a crime. Kirchner – a formidable populist who is as despised by the right as she is loved by the left – has denounced the verdict as part of a political witch hunt by the media and the courts. The case has already prompted numerous street clashes between Kirchner’s supporters and opponents — at one of them, a man tried to kill her (the gun jammed). The big intrigue now? Kirchner has legal immunity since she is currently vice president, and she’s already pledged to appeal the verdict all the way to the Supreme Court. But a final decision from there is unlikely to come down before next year’s general elections, when she may just run either for Senate or, gasp, for president. Whatever the outcome, Kirchner’s fate will throw more gas on the raging fire of Argentine politics over the next year.
Trump Org convicted in Gotham
On Tuesday, Donald Trump’s real estate empire was found guilty of tax fraud and other financial crimes in State Supreme Court in Manhattan, a victory for the Manhattan district attorney who has long sought to nail the former president for alleged illegal business practices. The Trump Organization was found guilty on all 17 counts, including charges that the company doled out expensive gifts to top execs who failed to pay taxes on them. The case was more or less locked after Allen Weisselberg, the organization’s former chief financial officer and a longtime Trump buddy, flipped for the prosecution in August in exchange for a significantly reduced jail sentence. Importantly, Trump himself was not indicted in this case, though the prosecutor made several references to his alleged involvement in the scheme. Still, he isn’t out of the woods as he’s facing a slew of criminal investigations in other states as well as the ongoing Jan. 6 investigation. Though this outcome is damning for Trump, it’s unlikely to have much impact on voters ahead of 2024 because most Americans have dug in their heels on the Trump issue, one way or another.
A breakthrough in Sudan?
On Monday, Sudan’s military signed an agreement with an alliance of democracy groups to begin a process of transition toward civilian rule in this deeply unstable country. The deal has its skeptics – and for good reason. In 2019, protesters forced long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir from power in hopes of ending three decades of tyranny and corruption. The military quickly stepped into the resulting power vacuum, and advocates for democracy were then forced to negotiate with its leaders, who were closely aligned with the former despot. Expectations of a democratic transition were quashed in October 2021, when the army launched a coup to seize power. Many protesters were brutalized and jailed. This week, the generals appear to have done an about-face. This latest agreement may signal the military’s genuine, if reluctant, acceptance that order can’t be restored in Sudan without true power-sharing, in part because international donors and lenders have turned their backs on the regime. Those who shook hands with the generals this week argue that compromise is the only way to end political violence and give Sudan a chance at democracy and normalcy. But other pro-democracy groups have rejected the agreement. They insist the military can never be trusted to finally make way for civilian democratic rule. Time will tell who’s right.
Not married? Then no sex in Indonesia
Indonesia's parliament on Tuesday approved an overhaul of the colonial-era criminal code — including a ban on extramarital sex. Anyone convicted of the offense will now face up to one year behind bars, and the law will also apply to foreigners visiting the country. While some human rights activists warned that the law could be used to target members of the LGBTQ community, others hailed the fact that legislators removed an article making gay sex illegal. Still, the move signals that the country with the world's largest Muslim population is slowly moving away from the religious tolerance its leaders have long championed to become more like Aceh, a province in the country's north ruled by Islamists who enforce shariah law. Interestingly, the law was passed just weeks after President Joko Widodo won international praise for hosting a successful G-20 summit in party-loving Bali, a haven for unruly tourists, many of whom are unmarried and presumably like to have sex. Jokowi, as he's popularly known, was considered a moderate when he swept to power in 2014, but in recent years he's developed an authoritarian streak and gotten cozy with Muslim conservatives. And what about ordinary Indonesians? Don't be surprised if they come out in droves to protest — as they did in 2019 over an earlier draft of the same law that forced Jokowi to rethink the ban.Former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Why did the FBI raid Trump’s Florida pad?
The US Justice Department on Friday released part of the FBI affidavit used to search Mar-a-Lago, President Trump’s sprawling estate in Florida – part of its probe into alleged mishandling of sensitive government documents. The heavily redacted legal brief – used to convince a judge to authorize the FBI search on Aug. 8 – was released after a federal judge ruled it was in the public’s interest to view the document some two weeks after FBI agents searched the former president’s estate. Authorities carried away 26 boxes of documents, which reportedly included several marked as classified and one as top secret. The episode has led to an uptick in aggressive rhetoric and some violence, particularly targeting law enforcement. It is extremely unusual for an affidavit to be made public before charges have been handed down. Trump has not been charged with a crime in this case, but the courts acquiesced to arguments that it is in the public interest – amid increased talk of a Trump bid in 2024 – to see the document that allowed the search.