WRESTLING WITH FOREIGN POLICY

WRESTLING WITH FOREIGN POLICY

Last month, your Friday author heard an excellent speech from Gillian Tett of the Financial Times in which she recounted, among other things, observations from Naomi Klein's book No is Not Enough on President Trump's personal history with American professional wrestling and its impact on his political style. Tett wrote on the subject here.


If you've seen an American wrestling match, you'll recognize the atmosphere at many Trump rallies: the pumped-up, angry crowds, the chanting, and the emasculating nicknames wrestlers use to belittle one another. It's a chaotic (carefully choreographed) spectacle.

As Klein points out, it's also an audience and a ritual that liberals and the wealthy in the US tend to ignore. That makes it harder for them to recognize the fears and needs of many people who feel completely overlooked in American society. President Trump understands this.

But professional wrestling also presents a "morality play." When warriors enter the ring, every spectator knows which one is the hero and which is the villain. There can be no heroes without villains. It's the villain that defines the hero.

Trump is hardly unique in his search for useful foils. This is an element not only of the political arena but of human nature. But given his business and personal ties with professional wrestling and its most successful promoters, its influence is revealing for understanding his foreign policy—and the adversaries he's most likely to cast as villains over the coming (very challenging) two years.

Which baddies does the Trump crowd boo with greatest gusto?

China: There are good reasons why the US—and other governments—demand changes to Beijing's economic, trade, and investment policies. But China is especially well cast as a bad guy for Trump's audience because many of his most loyal supporters see that country as the threatening power on the rise, one that has "stolen" large numbers of US manufacturing jobs.

Mexico: Last month, Trump told Plitico: "I will tell you, politically speaking, that issue [of halting immigration across the US-Mexican border] is a total winner." The president's midterm election strategy made clear that, whether Trump's supporters see would-be border-crossers as jobseekers or gang-bangers, they want to keep them out of the US. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico's leftist new president, has promised to help Central Americans escape hardship. For now, Trump and Lopez Obrador have a few things in common, but that relationship looks likely to head south.

Iran: Many of Trump's voters are older—in fact, old enough to remember the national humiliation many felt when Iranian revolutionaries held 52 Americans hostage inside the US embassy in Tehran for 444 days from November 1979 to January 1981. But Trump supporters also tend to prioritize support for Israel's security. Iranians, more than their Arab neighbors, are apt to publicly threaten Israel.

These aren't the only villains Trump supporters want to see him throw from the ring, but they're the most reliable of his political bad guys—and there are more than enough areas of real disagreement with these governments to fuel many a fight in months to come.

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Iran has vowed to avenge Sunday's attack on its Natanz nuclear facility. Tehran blames Israel, which — as in the past — has neither confirmed nor denied it was responsible. And all this happens just days after indirect talks on US plans to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal resumed in Vienna. What the Iranians do now will determine the immediate future of those negotiations, a Biden administration priority.

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Watch the episode: Vaccine nationalism could prolong the pandemic

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Welcome to your week and I've got your Quick Take and thought I would talk a little bit about where we are with Iran. One of the Biden administration's promises upon election was to get the Americans back into the JCPOA, the Iranian nuclear deal. As of last week, negotiations are formally restarted, and pretty quickly, in Vienna, they're not direct. The Americans and Iranians are both there, but they're being intermediated by the Europeans because they're not yet ready to show that they can talk directly to each other. That's Iran being cautious in the run-up to their presidential election coming this summer. But the movement is there. So far the talk has largely been about sequencing the Iranian government, saying that all of the sanctions need to be removed before they're willing to go back into the deal, because the Americans after all, unilaterally withdrew from a deal that the Iranians were indeed adhering to, and the inspections did confirm that.

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Ukraine is once again in a tough spot.

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Andean aftermath: Two big weekend elections in South America produced two stunning results. In Ecuador's presidential runoff, the center-right former banker Guillermo Lasso upset early frontrunner Andrés Arauz, a leftist handpicked by former president Rafael Correa. Lasso will take power amid the social and economic devastation of the pandemic and will have to reckon with the rising political power of Ecuador's indigenous population: the Pachakutik party, which focuses on environmental issues and indigenous rights, is now the second-largest party in parliament. Meanwhile, in a big surprise next door in Perú, far-left union leader Pedro Castillo tallied up the most votes in the first round of that country's highly fragmented presidential election. As of Monday evening it's not clear whom he'll face in the June runoff, but three figures are in the running as votes are counted: prominent neoliberal economist Hernando De Soto, rightwing businessman Rafael López Aliaga, and conservative Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the country's imprisoned former strongman. Meanwhile, in the congressional ballot, at least 10 parties reached the threshold to win seats, but there is no clear majority or obvious coalition in sight.

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A controversial new World Health Organization report on the origins of the coronavirus that suggests it likely originated from a bat but transferred to humans via an intermediary animal. Could the virus have emerged from a Chinese lab, as former CDC Director Robert Redfield recently suggested? That's the least likely scenario, says the WHO's chief scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan. "The betacoronaviruses are very, very common in bats and there's a lot of genetic similarity between the SARS-CoV2 and many of the viruses in the...bat species," Dr. Swaminathan told Ian Bremmer in an interview on GZERO World, airing on US public television stations starting April 9. Check local listings.

Watch the episode: Vaccine nationalism could prolong the pandemic

2.8 billion: Chinese regulators fined e-commerce giant Alibaba a record $2.8 billion — about four percent of its 2019 revenue — for abusing its dominant market position and forcing merchants to operate exclusively on its platform. Alibaba founder Jack Ma has fallen out with Beijing in recent months after the billionaire publicly criticized China's regulators for stifling innovation in technology.

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