Is US President Donald Trump going whole hog for the farm vote?
Today, Trump is expected to announce two new efforts designed to help the agriculture industry: new guidance on farm equipment and an expansion of government loan guarantees.
It’s his second overture to the farm sector in three months. In December, he announced a $12 billion aid package to offset the impact of his trade war on foreign demand for American agricultural products, notably corn, soybeans, wheat, and beef. At the time, Trump claimed that the funds came from tariff revenues on imports – funds that may be jeopardized by the Supreme Court’s decision last month, which dealt a blow to his tariff strategy. Now, with the Iran war pushing up the cost of fuel and fertilizer that farmers depend on, Trump is looking to mend fences before November’s midterm elections.
A tough year on the farm. Several of Trump’s signature policies have rattled the American agricultural sector. Trade tensions with China in 2025 hurt farm product exports before a trade deal between the two countries brought partial relief. But the volatility persists. When Trump announced earlier this month that a planned summit with China, the largest export market for US soybeans, would be delayed, it sent soybean prices tumbling.
At the same time, the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown has caused labor shortages by deporting migrant workers on whom much of the agricultural sector depends. This led the administration to amend the H-2A visa program last October to make it cheaper to hire temporary foreign farmworkers.
Now, the Iran conflict is compounding the pressure. Tehran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is strangling exports of urea, the most common source of nitrogen. Half of the world’s urea exports transit through the Persian Gulf, and since the conflict began, prices have spiked by close to 30%. The Fertilizer Institute, a Virginia-based advocacy organization for the fertilizer industry, warns that US farmers will be short some 2 million tons of urea this spring. The region also accounts for 50% of the world’s production of sulfur, a key ingredient in phosphate fertilizer.
Harvesting the farm vote. With the spring planting season approaching, the timing is politically fraught for Republicans already facing stiff headwinds in their bid to retain control of Congress come November. In 2024, Trump received an average of nearly 78% of the vote in farming-dependent counties, and carried all but 11 of 444 farming-dependent counties nationwide.
That rural support proved decisive in the 2024 election. In Wisconsin, Trump won the state’s rural vote by more than 22 percentage points, helping flip the battleground state despite Democratic strength in counties around Milwaukee and Madison. In Pennsylvania, he expanded his margins in rural counties while Democratic turnout sagged in major cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, a combination that helped deliver the state.
Where farmers stand. So far, farmers don’t appear to have beef with Trump. Last May, a survey of 400 US agricultural producers found that 70% believed that tariffs would strengthen in the long term. Forty-three percent thought tariffs would hurt their earnings this year, down from 56% the previous month. No recent polling suggests an erosion of that support.
Trump also retains the strong backing of his base, despite low approval ratings among the general public. Polling last week showed 81% of self-identified MAGA voters supported his strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader and targeting nuclear sites.
Still, cracks are emerging. Mike Stranz, vice president of advocacy at the National Farmers Union, called last December’s bailout a “lifeline, not a long-term solution.” Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association, urged Trump against imposing new tariffs, and Minnesota Farmers Union president Gary Wertish said earlier this month that farmers “need policies that don't require bailouts,” framing the aid as a political gambit.
If fuel and fertilizer costs keep rising and tariffs continue to bite, patience could wear thin. Farmers don’t need to switch sides to hurt Trump politically. They just need to stay home, and let Republicans’ margins wither in the fields.
