Will Japan rewrite its rules of war?
Fifty thousand demonstrators gathered in Tokyo on Sunday, the country’s Constitution Memorial Day, to protest Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's call for “advanced discussions” on revising Japan’s pacifist constitution. Since 1947, Article 9 has prohibited Japan from maintaining land, sea, or air forces and from waging war. It was reinterpreted in 2014 by Takaichi’s mentor, Shinzo Abe, to allow for “collective self defense,” but still prevents Tokyo from sending assistance to allies when Japan is not directly threatened. Takaichi cited the limitation in March when Japan declined to help the US in the Iran war. The revision would require both a two-thirds majority in Japan’s two houses of parliament and a simple majority in a national referendum, which Takaichi has vowed to hold “as soon as possible.” Polls show a range of opinions, setting up tests of Japan’s pacifism, attitudes toward the US, and Takaichi’s leadership.
Europe meets (again) to shape its own defense destiny
European leaders gather in Armenia today to discuss collective security options in a world where long-standing partnerships with US are now in doubt. The summit, which will include Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and NATO chief Mark Rutte, comes just days after the US announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, a reflection of President Donald Trump’s broader vision of forcing Europe to rely on itself more for defense. The location itself is also of note: Armenia, once a close ally of Russia, has fallen out with the Kremlin in recent years, especially after Moscow did little to help the Armenians when they were trounced by Azerbaijan in the final chapter of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2023. Ever since, Yerevan has increasingly been looking westward.
US to “guide” ships through Hormuz
The US Navy will show the way! Donald Trump announced on Sunday that American warships will escort vessels through the contested waterway. The mission, which will show ships through waters that are believed to be cleared of mines, is being framed as a “humanitarian” intervention to assist ships that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf for weeks. Trump has reportedly turned down, for now, a more aggressive Pentagon option to try to force open the Strait of Hormuz militarily, a sign that while he still wants to pressure Iran to relinquish its nuclear ambitions, he is reluctant to resume a full scale conflict that is deeply unpopular with the American public. But Iran, which has maintained functional control of the strait since the start of the conflict, sees even the guide mission as a violation of the recent ceasefire and has threatened to attack any ships that try to pass without permission. If they do, will the war be back on?
