A TRANSATLANTIC TRUCE

A TRANSATLANTIC TRUCE

In a stunning turnaround, President Trump announced a pause in the growing trade fight between the US and EU on Wednesday. According to the agreement, the US administration will, at the very least, forgo new trade measures against the EU in return for an open-ended commitment to buy more American soybeans and liquefied natural gas.


But while the deal between President Trump and EU Commission President Juncker was sealed with a touching smooch on the cheek, the key question remains whether the two sides will now actually do what they’ve promised.

Here’s Gabe with some thoughts on what’s going on:

Why now? Trump understands the importance of picking his battles. With US midterms just months away, a deal to put off possibly damaging tit-for-tat trade measures with the EU is a smart political move. The conflict with China is already being felt in important red states targeted with retaliatory action. The EU commitment to buy up American soybeans could help mitigate some of that pain. Not to mention that far more Americans view China as the top global economic power today — 44 percent — than those who say the same about the EU — just 5 percent.

A new Trump tactic? But this week’s deal also signaled a possibly important shift in the US president’s strategy for dealing with all ongoing trade negotiations — demanding countries get rid of tariffs altogether, rather than simply reducing their deficits with the US. This approach was first floated by Trump at the G7 summit in Canada, and it could prove an effective tool for increasing US leverage in future negotiations. A push for zero tariffs, for example, on automobiles or agriculture would be tough sells for Germany and France, respectively, who Trump could then call out for hypocrisy.

Does this indicate a permanent shift on trade policy? No. In fact, it could enable the Trump administration to go after China more forcefully — unburdened by having to deal with the EU. On NAFTA, the administration has said it’s planning to have a preliminary agreement in place by August. Canadian and Mexican negotiators have long since agreed to the most important US demands, but Trump has prolonged the process because the fight makes for good politics.

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Learn more about Zoe and her story.

In the lead-up to this year's COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, much of the attention has been focused on last summer's wildfires across the US and Europe, and more recently skyrocketing European energy prices. But what about Asia, the world's biggest and most populated region, which also has the highest share of global carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming? Asia has unique climate risks but also many opportunities for solutions, and whatever happens at COP26, Asian countries led by China and India are primed to lead the world in the struggle to make the planet greener before it's too late. In a live discussion moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, global experts discussed these and other topics during the first of a two-part Sustainability Leaders Summit sponsored by Suntory.

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We're just days away from COP26, the landmark global climate conference that's been dubbed the last chance to get the climate crisis in check. In the lead-up to the event in Glasgow, dozens of countries have released new ambitions to reduce their future carbon footprints. For years, climate activists and experts have called on governments to introduce carbon pricing schemes – either through taxes or emissions-trading schemes. So who's heeded the warning? We take a look at the top ten carbon emitters' share of global emissions and details about their respective national carbon pricing schemes.

Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center, Eurasia Group senior advisor and former MEP, discusses trends in big tech, privacy protection and cyberspace:

Do cryptocurrencies make it harder to enforce foreign policy sanctions?

Well, that is exactly what the Biden administration worries about. As part of growing concerns of whether unregulated currencies undermine a whole host of policies, sanctions and foreign or trade policy should be a priority area. And just like others who wish to evade tracing of their wealth or transactions, the very states or their sanctioned entities should be assumed to resort to all options to evade restrictions while continuing to do business. So having cryptocurrencies undermining the ability to enforce strategic goals logically raises eyebrows in Washington.

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Back in August, when the Taliban took over, we asked whether anyone in the international community would recognize them. Now it looks like things are heading that way.

This week, the Kremlin hosted a summit with the Taliban that was attended by China, India and Pakistan, as well as all five Central Asian Republics.

The domestically-focused US, however, wasn't there. The US continues to maintain that the Taliban can't be trusted. But does it matter? In 2021 does a Taliban-led government even need American recognition to function and thrive?

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For Kevin Rudd, former Australian PM and now CEO of the Asia Society, the science on climate change is pretty much done, so the only unresolved issues are tech and — more importantly — lack of political leadership. He can't think of a single national political leader who can fill the role, and says the only way to get political action on climate is to mobilize public opinion.

Rudd joined for the first of a two-part Sustainability Leaders Summit livestream conversation sponsored by Suntory. Watch here and register here to watch part two Friday 10/22 at 8 am ET.

Taking place on October 21 and 22, the Sustainability Leaders Summit will go beyond preexisting narratives and debate priorities for governments and industries ahead of COP26. Placing the spotlight on Asia's role in the global sustainability agenda, the event will address whether Asian countries and companies can achieve shared sustainability goals, and what is needed to help get them there. The summit will be co-hosted by Tak Niinami, CEO of Suntory Holdings, and Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. We will address three key questions: How can Asian countries, with the help of the private sector, achieve shared Sustainability Goals? Why does this matter? And what are the policy changes needed to bring it about?

Attendance is free and open to the public. Register to attend.

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The minutiae of supply chains makes for boring dinner table talk, but it's increasingly becoming a hot topic of conversation now that packages are taking much longer to arrive in the consumer-oriented US, while prices of goods soar.

With the issue unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, right-wing media have dubbed President Biden the Grinch Who Stole Christmas, conjuring images of sad Christmas trees surrounded by distraught children whose holiday gifts are stuck somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.

It hasn't been a good run for Uncle Joe in recent months. What issues are tripping him up?

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