A TRANSATLANTIC TRUCE

In a stunning turnaround, President Trump announced a pause in the growing trade fight between the US and EU on Wednesday. According to the agreement, the US administration will, at the very least, forgo new trade measures against the EU in return for an open-ended commitment to buy more American soybeans and liquefied natural gas.


But while the deal between President Trump and EU Commission President Juncker was sealed with a touching smooch on the cheek, the key question remains whether the two sides will now actually do what they’ve promised.

Here’s Gabe with some thoughts on what’s going on:

Why now? Trump understands the importance of picking his battles. With US midterms just months away, a deal to put off possibly damaging tit-for-tat trade measures with the EU is a smart political move. The conflict with China is already being felt in important red states targeted with retaliatory action. The EU commitment to buy up American soybeans could help mitigate some of that pain. Not to mention that far more Americans view China as the top global economic power today — 44 percent — than those who say the same about the EU — just 5 percent.

A new Trump tactic? But this week’s deal also signaled a possibly important shift in the US president’s strategy for dealing with all ongoing trade negotiations — demanding countries get rid of tariffs altogether, rather than simply reducing their deficits with the US. This approach was first floated by Trump at the G7 summit in Canada, and it could prove an effective tool for increasing US leverage in future negotiations. A push for zero tariffs, for example, on automobiles or agriculture would be tough sells for Germany and France, respectively, who Trump could then call out for hypocrisy.

Does this indicate a permanent shift on trade policy? No. In fact, it could enable the Trump administration to go after China more forcefully — unburdened by having to deal with the EU. On NAFTA, the administration has said it’s planning to have a preliminary agreement in place by August. Canadian and Mexican negotiators have long since agreed to the most important US demands, but Trump has prolonged the process because the fight makes for good politics.

Legislators in 8 US states have recently passed laws to limit abortions, thrusting the contentious issue into the center of the country's political debate ahead of the 2020 presidential election. The bills are intended, in part, to force the US Supreme Court to revisit its landmark 1973 Roe v Wade decision, which gave women the right to choose to terminate pregnancy. Here's a look at how other countries around the world regulate abortion at the national level, as well as a region-by-region snapshot of how prevalent the practice is today, compared to 30 years ago.

Last week, as trade tensions continued to rise between China and the US, the Trump administration landed one of the heaviest blows yet on Beijing, moving to severely restrict the Chinese tech and telecoms giant Huawei's ability to do business with American firms.

What happened? Two things: The Trump administration formally banned sales of Huawei telecoms equipment in the US. More importantly, it also prohibited American firms from selling their technology to Huawei without a special license.

Why? It's complicated. Technically, Huawei was blacklisted from acquiring US technology due to alleged violations of US sanctions against Iran. But the US is also concerned that Huawei could allow Beijing to spy on or disrupt data flowing across the next-generation 5G data networks of the US or its allies. President Trump may also believe the moves will give him extra leverage in his broader fight with Beijing over trade and technology.

The fallout is already starting to hit. Here's where:

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An Austrian politician got drunk with a Russian woman in Ibiza a few years ago and said some things that have now broken up his country's government.

That's right, over the weekend the German press released a video secretly recorded on the Spanish resort island just before Austria's 2017 elections, in which Heinz-Christian Strache, the leader of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), tells a woman posing as the niece of a Kremlin-connected Russian oligarch that if she donates money to his party, she'll get lucrative government contracts.

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Direct(ed) Democracy In Russia – After thousands of people protested the construction of a new cathedral in a nice park in Yekaterinburg, Russia's fourth largest city, President Putin weighed in to stop construction until a popular referendum can be held. What does that tell us? Well, for one thing, Putin is probably a little more sensitive to public unrest after seeing his approval rating pummeled by a botched pension reform last year. But more to the point, this is a nice illustration of how democracy works in Russia: the new tsar orders accountability to happen when and where it suits his interests.

The Size of Modi's Election Victory – Eight different exit polls released over the weekend show Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP party comfortably ahead in the country's 6-week national election. Voting ended on Sunday, with final results due on Thursday. How big will the BJP's margin be? In 2014, the party won the first outright parliamentary majority in India in 30 years, but after mixed economic results and rising concerns about sectarian tensions, the BJP went into this election on shakier ground. We're watching to see if Modi heads into his second 5-year term emboldened with another majority, or if he's forced to cobble together an unwieldy coalition of parties in order to govern.

What We're Ignoring: Cash for Peace and a Southern Switcheroo

The Deal of the Millennium – President Trump has a plan to secure peace between Israel and Palestine. That plan is: buy it. The administration announced over the weekend that it will hold a "economic workshop" in Bahrain in late June to get Gulf and other Arab states to funnel aid to Palestine, in exchange for which the Palestinians are expected to drop their long-held demands for an end to Israeli settlements, the designation of East Jerusalem as their capital, and (some form of) formal statehood. We're skeptical that cold cash will solve one of the most intractable conflicts on earth. Also, it's not a great sign that the Palestinians themselves don't even plan to attend.

Don't Cry for Veep, Argentina – With her country in crisis (yet again), Cristina de Fernández Kirchner, the controversial left-wing populist who ran Argentina between 2007 and 2015, is increasingly well-positioned to return to power in elections later this year. But over the weekend she pulled a surprise move, announcing that she'd be running only as vice president, allowing former aide Alberto Fernández, whose politics are seen as somewhat more moderate than hers, to top the ticket. We get that it's an electoral strategy meant to broaden Kirchner's appeal among centrist voters, but let's be serious: if the ticket wins, only one Fernández will really be running the country – AND SPOILER: IT'S NOT GOING TO BE ALBERTO.