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Ukrainian servicemen attend a training to use drones in Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukraine tries to wreck Russian morale
Ukrainian drones reportedly hit a Russian super bomber at the Soltsy-2 base outside St. Petersburg, which is a significant 400 miles (650 km) from the Ukrainian border. The Soviet-era bomber, used to carry long-range missiles, has been used throughout the war to flatten Ukrainian cities.
While this lone attack is unlikely to alter Russia’s air capabilities, it is a boon for Kyiv for a few reasons.
First, it reinforces Ukraine's ability to strike the Kremlin’s military targets well inside Russian territory. Importantly, it comes amid reports that US officials are increasingly pessimistic about the state of Ukraine’s counteroffensive – and occurs just weeks before President Joe Biden will need Congress to renew a funding package for Ukraine. Kyiv, for its part, needs to continue to prove that the vast investment is worth it.
What’s more, images of Russia being hit at home give more ammunition to the hardline military bloggers who continue to criticize the Russian military leadership for incompetence and for not hitting Ukraine hard enough. Undercutting Russian morale to destabilize Russia’s armed forces and political echelon has proven to be a key tactic for Ukraine in recent months. Still, Kyiv will need to sow deeper divisions and chaos to wreak havoc within Russian military units in a way that will truly impact the battlefield.
A damaged office building following a reported Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow.
More drone strikes on Moscow
Early Tuesday, a drone struck a Moscow skyscraper that houses Russian government ministries. It was the second drone attack on that building in just 48 hours. Ukraine’s government has not yet acknowledged responsibility, but its military is suspected for obvious reasons.
Though Ukraine has no way of matching the intensity and destructive power of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, there are several reasons why these drone strikes matter.
They demonstrate that authorities in Kyiv, once reluctant to speak publicly about attacks inside Russia, have become less concerned about Putin’s threats of retaliatory escalation. In recent days, senior officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have said publicly that targeting “symbolic centers and military bases” inside Russia is “inevitable, natural and absolutely fair.”
The attacks also make it more difficult for Vladimir Putin’s government to persuade Russians that its “special military operation” in Ukraine will impose few costs and no risks for Russian civilians. They grab the attention of Russia’s political and business elite by hitting targets close to their offices. They undermine confidence in Russia’s military by underlining its repeated failure to prevent attacks on the heart of the capital, which may have been launched from hundreds of miles away.
Finally, they signal that despite stepped-up Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, Ukraine’s government and military are only becoming more aggressive.
A sign prohibiting drones flying over Red Square is on display near the State Historical Museum and the Kremlin wall in central Moscow, Russia.
Are Ukrainian fighters hidden inside Russia?
According to a CNN report on Monday, unnamed US officials say Ukraine has assembled a network of trained agents inside Russia and is providing them with drones and other weapons to carry out attacks on various Russian targets. These officials say the saboteurs have links to Ukrainian intelligence services, and that President Volodymyr Zelensky has established guidelines for what they can and can’t do, though he doesn’t personally sign off on every operation.
If true, this could explain the assassination last year of the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist and/or recent drone attacks inside Moscow. If these attacks continue and intensify, they raise several important questions. Might successful sabotage attacks in the heart of Russian cities finally push Putin toward some form of escalation we haven’t yet seen? Would the attacks undermine or strengthen Putin’s hold on power?
Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ambitious man prone to increasingly provocative comments, has now claimed the right for his private army to operate inside Russia without the permission of Russia’s military leaders. He’s limited himself so far to the possible defense of a Russian border area repeatedly raided by Ukrainian irregular forces. But might more successful attacks finally bring rising tensions between Prigozhin and the Russian brass to a head?