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Undated photo posted by Jack Teixeira\'s mother on Veterans Day Nov 11, 2021 on her Facebook page.
What We're Watching: Pentagon leaker suspect arrested, Gershkovich swap chatter, Uruguay’s free trade ambitions
And the suspected leaker is ...
On Thursday afternoon, the FBI arrested a suspect in the most damaging US intel leak in a decade, identifying him as Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard. Teixeira was reportedly the leader of an online gaming chat group, where he had been allegedly sharing classified files for three years. If convicted of violating the US Espionage Act, he could spend the rest of his life behind bars. Teixeira will appear in a Boston court on Friday.
We know that the chat group was made up of mostly male twentysomethings that loved guns, racist online memes, and, of course, video games. We don’t know what motivated the leaks, what other classified material the leaker had, or whether any of the docs were divulged to a foreign intelligence agency.
Arresting a suspect, though, is just the beginning of damage control for the Pentagon and the Biden administration. Although the content of the leaks surprised few within the broader intel community, many might not have realized the extent to which the US spies on its allies.
Uncle Sam obviously would’ve preferred to have intercepted the message this scandal sends to America’s enemies: US intel is not 100% secure.
Russia is maybe considering swap for Evan Gershkovich
A top Russian diplomat suggested Thursday that Moscow could explore a prisoner swap with the US in order to release American journalist Evan Gershkovich, whom Russian authorities jailed earlier this month on espionage charges.
But first, said Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the trial against Gershkovich will have to play out in full. That could take as long as a year.
What might Russia want in exchange? Hard to say. Last year, the Kremlin swapped WNBA star Brittney Griner, convicted of a drug offense while traveling in Russia, for notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout. At the time, the Kremlin also reportedly sought the release of a Russian assassin from a German prison, but that swap broke down when the Kremlin refused to also release Paul Whelan, an American currently serving an espionage sentence in Russia.
A year from now, the world, and the Ukraine war, might look very different. But expect the Kremlin to throw the book at Gershkovich to maximize their leverage ahead of any talks about his release.
Meanwhile, elsewhere in Russia’s prison system, opposition leader Alexei Navalny — currently in solitary confinement — has suffered a fresh health crisis that his spokeswoman says is another attempt to poison him.
For context, see our recent interview with Daniel Roher, director of the Oscar-winning documentary Navalny.
Uruguay’s FTA dream
Uruguay's Foreign Minister Francisco Bustillo will soon meet with Chinese officials to take steps toward establishing a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. Uruguay has wanted an FTA for three decades, and the timing might finally be right as China seeks to increase its influence in South America.
Getting an FTA with China has been a priority for Uruguay’s President Luis Lacalle Pou's administration. The meeting will come on the heels of trade talks between Brazil and China, countries that saw their two-way trade hit a record $171.5 billion in 2022. Uruguay wants in on the action.
China has deepened its trade relationships in Latin America throughout the 21st century, beating out the US as the region's largest trading partner. Beijing benefits politically from these partnerships, gaining votes at the UN and support for Chinese appointees to multinational institutions, as well as the ability to implement technology standards into regional infrastructure.
But not all of Uruguay's neighbors are comfortable with China's swelling influence in the region, or with Uruguay flying solo. Uruguay is facing resistance from other Mercosur countries that favor negotiating regional trade deals as a bloc. Paraguay, which still recognizes Taipei in lieu of the government in Beijing, is leading the pushback – a conflict that could test one of the bloc’s few rules: a restriction on making preferential agreements with third countries.
Russia won Brittney Griner prisoner swap, Putin still losing
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, there. Ian Bremmer here. A Quick Take, wanted to opine for just a couple of minutes on Brittney Griner, who is back in the United States a free woman, and we're of course, happy to be able to announce that. But what do we think about this deal and what it means going forward?
Of course, we're happy whenever an American citizen is released when they've been unjustly held, in this case, essentially hostage for 10 months by an authoritarian Russian government with no rule of law. Yes, she had committed a crime. She brought in some hashish that she was vaping with, and that was a very stupid act in Russia. But the idea that she was going to get nine years in jail for it, no, absolutely not. This was, of course, the Russians making a point with an American celebrity and wanting to juice that orange for as much as they possibly could. And they did.
They got Viktor Bout, who was called the "Merchant of Death," certainly aging at this point, but has been held in the United States. One of the most notorious arms dealers in the world. Do I think this is a fair trade? No, of course I don't. Because the Americans care about the lives of their citizens much more than the Russians do, and it's unacceptable that we should have to negotiate with Russia. On the other hand, I'm glad she's back, and I also feel like the Americans are doing an awful lot to punish the Russians right now, irrespective the specifics of this individual deal. To wit, we're talking about massive military support for Ukraine, which is helping destroy the Russian arms space. Their military has been diminished radically on the back of military support that has been led by the United States, as well as economic sanctions being led by the United States that is taking billions and billions of dollars out of Putin's pocket, the pockets of the oligarchs that have supported him, and, of course, the Russian economy as a whole.
So, the reality is that's far more important than the back and forth of this individual hostage deal. And the fact that an exchange has been made and the Americans now have a citizen, a valued citizen, back in the country is a good thing. Having said that, Paul Whelan is an American citizen who's now been in Russia for over four years, also illegally detained a hostage, and he's not back. And we should not be happy about that. Biden clearly took longer on the Griner deal because he was trying to get Whelan freed, as well. Did not happen. They're clearly disappointed about that. No one more than Whelan's own family.
Also true, under two years of the Trump administration, there was interest from the State Department in securing Whelan's release. Did not happen. It wasn't a huge priority, and they weren't able to secure his release. That is the story here. The fact that Putin is not just a war criminal in Ukraine, but also does not believe in the human rights of, pretty much, any citizens around the world, is indifferent, and plays power politics whenever he has a small piece of leverage. And in this case, he has a couple of small pieces of leverage. But overall, of course, Russia is in very serious decline because of missteps that Putin has made and because of leadership by the United States and American allies in NATO and all over the world in responding to that unjust war.
So, that's where we are. Delighted to see Britney back in the United States. Still have more work to do on Paul Whelan. Still have a lot more work to do on this Russian regime. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.