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What We're Watching: Omicron sparks fear and restrictions, Honduras' elections, Modi plays politics with farmers, EU calls for migrant pact with UK, Kyiv on alert
The omicron wars: Can we really afford to lock down again? In response to the new omicron variant first discovered by South African scientists, many countries have reintroduced pandemic travel restrictions that we thought were long behind us. Israel and Morocco have banned all foreign visitors, while tougher rules on quarantining and travel have also been enforced in the UK, Australia, Singapore and parts of Europe. Meanwhile, travelers from southern African countries have been banned from entering almost everywhere. Scientists say that it is still too early to say how infectious the new variant is, or how resistant it might be to vaccines. This disruption comes just as many economies were starting to reopen after more than 20-months of pandemic closures and chaos. The new restrictions are already triggering a fierce debate: some say that we are now in the endemic stage of the pandemic and that it is both unsustainable – and economically and psychologically harmful – to keep locking down every time a new variant surfaces. Others, like Israel's PM Naftali Bennett, say we are in the throes of a new "state of emergency," and that we can't afford to take any chances. What do you think?
Honduras braces for post election upheavals (again). Leftist opposition candidate Xiomara Castro jumped out to a sizable early lead in Sunday’s Honduran presidential and legislative elections, but her rival is also claiming victory in a vote already marred by fears of violence and several confirmed cyberattacks on voting systems. Castro’s main opponent is businessman and capital city mayor Nasry Asfura, candidate of the ruling center-right National Party. If Castro wins, she would become the Central American country’s first female president, and the first leftist to hold power since her husband, Manuel Zelaya, was ousted in a coup 12 years ago. The stakes are high for Honduras, which has been wracked by gang violence, sky-high murder rates, and poverty for years. Widespread irregularities in the 2017 re-election of current president Juan Orlando Hernandez led to days of deadly violence, and Hernandez himself has since been placed under US investigation for ties to drug traffickers. Outside of Honduras both Mexico and the US will be watching closely — hundreds of thousands of Hondurans have fled instability in their home country in recent years, traversing Mexico to seek opportunity in the USA: after Mexicans, Hondurans are currently the second most common nationality apprehended at the US southern border.
Modi plays politics with farmers. The Indian government's recent climbdown on three agricultural laws was a rare concession from Modi, a popular, strong-willed nationalist who came to power in 2014 and has refused to back down on contentious and oft-criticized policy issues – like decimating India's cash money supply, revoking Kashmir's autonomous status, or amending the country's citizenship laws to effectively exclude Muslims. Now, farmers unions seem to smell blood in the water. While many are indeed thrilled that Modi has done away with the farming reforms, which would no longer have guaranteed minimum prices for crops, giving more power to big business, many see this concession as a shrewd political move. Early next year elections will be held in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state and an agricultural stronghold which traditionally backs Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party. But the BJP has lost support there in recent months because of the agricultural laws. Still, Modi hasn't won over farmers just yet: farm unions want the government to write certain "minimum support prices" into law, and to expand the number of crops that are given these government price protections. But a law like that won't be popular with powerful agriculture corporations. Will Modi do it anyway?
EU calls for fresh migrant pact with UK. Just days after 27 migrants died trying to cross the English Channel from France to the UK, officials from four EU states met Sunday to call for a fresh migration policy agreement with the UK. That came after days of overt acrimony between London and Paris: PM Boris Johnson published a letter — on Twitter, no less — that called for joint patrols and faulted the French for the tragedy. Unsurprisingly, France objected to that, and promptly disinvited the British from the Sunday meeting on migration. The EU pledged to step up aerial patrols of the Channel but said that a border framework with the UK is urgently needed. With this much post-Brexit bad blood flowing across the Channel, is that even possible?
A coup in Kyiv? "I have received information that a coup will happen in our country on 1 December." So said Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky during an extraordinary news conference last week. The plot, according to Zelensky, involves one of Ukraine's wealthiest men with the backing of sinister (presumably Russian) forces. The accusation comes at a time of high anxiety in Kyiv as Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops along Ukraine's borders for reasons that Russia hasn't clearly explained. What's happening here? We've already written that Ukrainian and Western fears of a Russian troop invasion of Ukraine are highly exaggerated. Russia would win any battle fought with Ukrainian forces, but a war and occupation of Ukrainian territory would come with big costs and risks for the Kremlin. But there's also no reason to believe that Ukraine's military or population would tolerate, let alone support, a Russian-backed coup in Kyiv. Tensions are high and likely to run higher, but war and revolution remain highly unlikely outcomes.
What We’re Watching: Iran wants back in nuclear talks, post-Brexit fishing drama, RIP Facebook
Iran to resume nuclear talks — but it might be too late. Iran's top negotiator says that his country is now ready to rejoin talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. Those negotiations have been on ice since June, when a hardline new Iranian president was "elected." But hopes for a breakthrough are slim. For one thing, Iran and the US still disagree about who should do what first: Tehran wants the toughest US sanctions lifted immediately, while the Americans say no way until Iran stops steaming ahead with its nuclear programs. (For a good primer, check out this Puppet Regime.) The other big obstacle now is that since Donald Trump ditched the deal in 2018, Iran has made immense progress in enriching uranium, breaking through all the limits set by the original agreement. Reviving that pact would now entail forcing the Iranians to give that all up, which Iran's hardline leadership is very unlikely to do, while Washington certainly won't want to write up a new deal that accepts Iran's recent nuclear activity — in fact, the Biden administration is under pressure to impose fresh sanctions. Fresh talks are good, but things don't look promising.
Nous gardons ton bateau!France and the UK have spent months trading barbs over post-Brexit fishing access in the English Channel. But now the French have upped the ante by seizing a UK trawler because it didn't have the proper EU-mandated paperwork. Although details of the seizure remain murky, it's a clear shot across the bow by Paris, fed up about lack of progress in talks over post-Brexit fishing rights. (Fishing rights was one of the final sticking points of Brexit trade negotiations, an emotive political issue for many Britons who say that they got a subpar deal when the UK joined the EEC in the 1970s.) What's more, France has issued an ultimatum: its customs agents will take their time inspecting all UK goods entering the country until London grants more fishing licenses to French vessels. This comes after a massive flare-up in May, when France amassed dozens of fishing boats near the Channel Islands, threatening to block British access to their ports and cut them off from power that comes from French submarine cables (spoiler: Paris backed off.)
What We're Ignoring
Facebook goes Meta. After weeks of teasing, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced Thursday that the company has a new name: Meta. The company says the name change reflects its increasing focus on the metaverse, which for you lay people refers to stuff like virtual and augmented reality. But the irony is palpable. A quick Google search reveals that the etymology of meta is Greek, and means "after" or "beyond." While Zuckerberg, Sandberg and co may be hoping that a major shift in branding will usher in a new era for the tech giant that has has experienced a brutal wave of publicity in recent weeks, it'll take more than a PR exercise to recast the company's image as a suppressor of hopes, dreams… and democracy.
What We're Watching: French and Brits fight over fish, Nigeria's insecurity, Duterte cozies up to China
Paris-London face-off at sea: France and the UK are at loggerheads in the high seas this week over post-Brexit fishing access in Jersey, an island off the English Channel. Furious at regulations that they say makes it harder to fish in these lucrative waters, dozens of French fishing boats amassed near the Channel Island, threatening to block access to the port. In response, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson deployed two naval vessels — a move critics say was an unnecessary escalation, and an attempt by the PM to flex his muscles and bolster the Tory vote ahead of Thursday's regional election. France, for its part, sent its own naval ship and threatened to cut off Jersey's electricity supply, 90 percent of which comes from French underwater cables. Fishing rights was one of the final sticking points of Brexit trade negotiations, an emotive political issue for many Britons who say that they got a subpar deal when the UK joined the European Economic Community in the 1970s. Though an UK-EU Brexit agreement was finally reached in December 2020, it's clear that there are still thorny issues that need to be resolved.
Nigeria's insecurity woes: Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has made tackling worsening insecurity in his country a political priority, but nothing seems to be making much of a difference: attacks and kidnappings by armed criminal gangs and Islamist militants have become a constant part of life in northern Nigeria, and have already claimed hundreds of lives this year alone. Buhari's new security chiefs, expected to bring fresh blood into an aging security apparatus, have so far failed to deliver on their promise to end the violence (including by Nigeria's often trigger-happy police against civilians). The situation has gotten so bad that members of the president's own party are now openly criticizing the leadership of Buhari, a former general who led a military junta that ruled Nigeria in the early 1980s before being elected as a civilian in 2015. Earlier this week, the armed forces came out in support of the president amid growing calls for Buhari to step down before his second term in office ends in two years time. But if the security situation continues to deteriorate, the generals could change their minds.
Is Duterte getting too cozy with China? Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has had a busy few days. This week alone, he has berated his top diplomat over an expletive-laden Twitter tirade against China, apologized for getting vaccinated with a Chinese-made COVID vaccine that hasn't yet been approved for domestic use in the Philippines, and said the 2016 arbitration ruling in favor of his country's claims in the South China Sea is not worth the paper it's written on. While Duterte cozying up to China's Xi Jinping is nothing new, this might be starting to have political consequences for him as support for China has plummeted among the Filipino electorate. While Duterte's popularity has not been tested in a major nationwide survey since October 2020, when it hit a whopping 93 percent, if current trends continue, the incumbent may have a hard time in next year's presidential election. Since he can't run for a second term, Duterte's allies want him to be a candidate for VP alongside his daughter so the family can stay in power. But will Duterte's infatuation with China ruin his chances?