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What We’re Watching: Russia & Ukraine talk grain, US talks fish
Russia and Ukraine get granular, finally
The two countries at war on Wednesday agreed in principle to a UN-backed plan to resume exports of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat and cooking oils, but the war has crippled those shipments, inflaming food prices globally and undercutting food security in dozens of emerging market countries. Under the UN plan, Ukraine would clear mines from its ports, Russia would allow safe passage for grain boats, and Turkey would provide safe shipping corridors. But Kyiv is wary about Moscow using the de-mined sea lanes to launch a fresh naval offensive, and Moscow insists on the right to inspect any boats for weapons. The two sides and Turkey are set to ink an official deal next week. For complete coverage of the growing global food crisis, be sure to see our Hunger Pains project.
US fishes for friends in the Pacific
We’ve written about France and the UK fighting over fish(ing rights) in the English Channel. But what about using fish to reel in friends? That seems to be what US Vice President Kamala Harris tried to do this week with Pacific island leaders at a regional forum that, till now, had raised eyebrows mostly for Kiribati dropping out, allegedly at the behest of China. Via video link, Harris announced $60 million worth of American aid to help 14 Pacific countries catch more tuna. It may not sound like a lot of dough, but illegal fishing is a huge problem in this part of the world, where China's dark fleet has been accused of depleting fish stocks. The announcement comes weeks after China first signed a controversial security pact with the Solomon Islands that Western allies fear will allow Beijing to establish a military base there. Most Pacific countries notably turned down China's offer to make a similar region-wide deal. The Americans, along with the Aussies and Kiwis, have long neglected the remote and sparsely populated Pacific, but fears of China gaining a foothold have lured them back into action.What We’re Watching: Iran wants back in nuclear talks, post-Brexit fishing drama, RIP Facebook
Iran to resume nuclear talks — but it might be too late. Iran's top negotiator says that his country is now ready to rejoin talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. Those negotiations have been on ice since June, when a hardline new Iranian president was "elected." But hopes for a breakthrough are slim. For one thing, Iran and the US still disagree about who should do what first: Tehran wants the toughest US sanctions lifted immediately, while the Americans say no way until Iran stops steaming ahead with its nuclear programs. (For a good primer, check out this Puppet Regime.) The other big obstacle now is that since Donald Trump ditched the deal in 2018, Iran has made immense progress in enriching uranium, breaking through all the limits set by the original agreement. Reviving that pact would now entail forcing the Iranians to give that all up, which Iran's hardline leadership is very unlikely to do, while Washington certainly won't want to write up a new deal that accepts Iran's recent nuclear activity — in fact, the Biden administration is under pressure to impose fresh sanctions. Fresh talks are good, but things don't look promising.
Nous gardons ton bateau!France and the UK have spent months trading barbs over post-Brexit fishing access in the English Channel. But now the French have upped the ante by seizing a UK trawler because it didn't have the proper EU-mandated paperwork. Although details of the seizure remain murky, it's a clear shot across the bow by Paris, fed up about lack of progress in talks over post-Brexit fishing rights. (Fishing rights was one of the final sticking points of Brexit trade negotiations, an emotive political issue for many Britons who say that they got a subpar deal when the UK joined the EEC in the 1970s.) What's more, France has issued an ultimatum: its customs agents will take their time inspecting all UK goods entering the country until London grants more fishing licenses to French vessels. This comes after a massive flare-up in May, when France amassed dozens of fishing boats near the Channel Islands, threatening to block British access to their ports and cut them off from power that comes from French submarine cables (spoiler: Paris backed off.)
What We're Ignoring
Facebook goes Meta. After weeks of teasing, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced Thursday that the company has a new name: Meta. The company says the name change reflects its increasing focus on the metaverse, which for you lay people refers to stuff like virtual and augmented reality. But the irony is palpable. A quick Google search reveals that the etymology of meta is Greek, and means "after" or "beyond." While Zuckerberg, Sandberg and co may be hoping that a major shift in branding will usher in a new era for the tech giant that has has experienced a brutal wave of publicity in recent weeks, it'll take more than a PR exercise to recast the company's image as a suppressor of hopes, dreams… and democracy.
UK & France fight over fishing rights & why Scottish elections matter
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:
What's going on between the United Kingdom and France over fishing rights?
Yes, good question. Why on earth are they sending the Royal Navy to chase away some French fishermen from the island of Jersey? Fishing rights is very controversial. It was one of the key issues in the Brexit negotiations. Extremely divisive. Fishermen are fairly determined people but sending the Royal Navy to handle the French fishermen was somewhat excessive. I guess it played rather well with the English nationalists for Boris Johnson in the local elections, though.
How important are the Scottish elections for the future of the UK?
They are very important. If there is a solid pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, they will press for a new referendum. Will they get a new referendum? Well, sooner or later, I guess they will, the one way or the other. It might not be imminent. Will they win that referendum? Well, that's much too early to say, much too early to say. But it's going to be a very divisive issue for the United Kingdom. And they have a problem with Northern Ireland as well.
What We’re Watching: Mali’s “imam of the people,” Chinese fishermen busted, Bulgarian PM clings to power
We need to do something about... Mali: The leaders of 5 West African countries are in Mali, negotiating a solution to the country's worsening political crisis. It's quite an impressive show of regional mediation force, but will it be enough to force President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita to step down? For weeks, thousands of protestors have been saying they are fed up with rampant corruption, election fraud, a military incapable of stopping rising jihadist attacks. The key player in this crisis is Mahmoud Dicko, an immensely popular Muslim cleric who still supports the president — although his followers don't. Dicko says, for now, he would rather Keita stay in power and address the people's grievances. But outside parties like the UN and the powerful Economic Community of West African States are worried that continued unrest in Mali could further destabilize a region where jihadis are gaining a foothold, and they want Dicko to take over and restore stability fast.
China's illegal fishing armada exposed: A "dark fleet" of almost a thousand Chinese fishing boats has been operating illegally in North Korean waters since at least 2017, together catching over $440 million in squid alone, according to satellite data in a new study. If they paid for legit licenses to fish from North Korea, that would be a violation of a UN embargo on most activities that would allow North Koreans to earn foreign currency. Japan and South Korea also have some beef with China here, as the previously unidentified vessels could explain why squid stocks in their own nearby territorial waters have declined over 80 percent since 2003. And to make matters worse, China's "dark fleet" is now also being blamed for chasing away hundreds of North Korean fishing vessels boats that later washed up as "ghost ships" on the coast of Japan, likely after they became stranded and the crews jumped overboard after running out of scarce fuel, facing inclement weather or having engine trouble.
A Turkish kingmaker in Bulgarian politics: After surviving a no-confidence vote in parliament, Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov has reshuffled his cabinet in hopes of putting an end to the worst anti-government protests the country has seen in almost a decade. Young Bulgarians have recently hit the streets to demand that Borissov step down over graft scandals, including the allegation that he gave Ahmed Dogan, a businessman and political ally, private control of a public beach on the Black Sea. Perhaps it's just a coincidence that Dogan's Movement for Rights and Freedoms, a party that represents ethnic Turks in Bulgaria, is an essential part of the prime minister's coalition. The opposition has pooh-poohed Borissov's new cabinet, arguing that the changes are cosmetic and that the prime minister himself must face the music over Dogan's preferential treatment. Thirteen years after joining the EU, Bulgaria remains the bloc's poorest and most corrupt member state — is there an opportunity to change that now?