Who wins and loses from Trump's new Syria policy?

In a major and unexpected reversal of longstanding US policy, the White House has given Turkey a green light to send its forces into northern Syria, an area currently controlled by US-backed Kurdish militias who have been fighting ISIS. US troops are pulling back. Turkey is delighted. The Kurds are dismayed. Even ISIS might have something to smile about now. By Monday evening, Turkish forces had already waged attacks against American-backed Kurdish forces, which are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).


Here's a rundown of what this means for the key players:

Turkey: Thrilled. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants two things here. First, to create a "safe zone" within Syria where he can send some of the increasingly unwelcome 3.6 million Syrian refugees currently living in Turkey. Second, to prevent Syrian Kurdish groups – whom Ankara considers terrorists linked to Kurdish militants inside Turkey – from being able to set up any kind of autonomous Kurdish polity in Syria that's right on Turkey's border. Now Erdogan gets to kill two birds with one invasion. But will he go further?

The Kurds: Ghosted. Few peoples in modern history have been as repeatedly and spectacularly betrayed by outside powers as the Kurds, the Middle East's largest ethnic group without an independent country. The 60,000 fighters of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) played a key role in the destruction of ISIS' worldly caliphate, and control of much of northwestern Syria. Now Washington is basically cutting them loose. As they prepare for an onslaught from Turkey, they'll doubtless look for alliances with other key power brokers – whether that's the Syrian government, which will want to push back against Turkish incursions, or the Russian and Iranian forces also active in the country.

US: Unmoved. Trump, who campaigned on disentangling the US from foreign wars, has been trying to get US troops out of Syria for months despite Pentagon concerns that this will open up a vacuum for other powers (such as Russia, Iran, or even ISIS) to fill. As he faces an impeachment inquiry at home, he seems even more fixated on making good on that campaign promise. While earlier US administrations have anguished over the fine line between support for Kurdish groups and the US relationship with Turkey, a NATO ally, Trump is far less conflicted about all of this, even as he comes under fire from some of his strongest Republican allies. Trump has made perfectly clear that he sees little strategic value in Syria. Removing US troops and throwing the problem into Turkey's hands is a win-win from his perspective.

ISIS: Freedom!? SDF-run prisons in Syria currently hold more than 10,000 ISIS fighters from Iraq and Syria, and about 2,500 from elsewhere in the world. If the SDF is at war with Turkey, these fighters might make an easy escape. The White House appears to be giving Ankara wide latitude to do what it wants with any ISIS detainees, but it's unclear what Turkey's plan is. It's worth noting that when former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis left his post last December, he and a host of Pentagon officials had cautioned about precisely the risk of ISIS fighters finding a path back to the battlefield.

Russia: It's too easy. Moscow has had its ups and downs with Turkey in recent years (since almost going to war several years ago they've cultivated a deepening relationship based on shared grievances with "the West"). But the Kremlin will be very pleased to see a scarcer US presence in Syria, the country that Vladimir Putin has made into the keystone of his strategy to reassert Russia's clout in the Middle East.

Imagine losing your child in their first year of life and having no idea what caused it. This is the heartbreaking reality for thousands of families each year who lose a child to Sudden Unexpected Infant Death (SUID). Despite decades-long efforts to prevent SUID, it remains the leading cause of death for children between one month and one year of age in developed nations. Working in collaboration with researchers at Seattle Children's Research Institute and the University of Auckland, Microsoft analyzed the Center for Disease Control (CDC) data on every child born in the U.S. over a decade, including over 41 million births and 37,000 SUID deaths.

By pairing Microsoft's capabilities and data scientists with Seattle Children's medical research expertise, progress is being made on identifying the cause of SUID. Earlier this year, a study was published that estimated approximately 22% of SUID deaths in the U.S. were attributable to maternal cigarette-smoking during pregnancy, giving us further evidence that, through our collaboration with experts in varying disciplines, we are getting to the root of this problem and making remarkable advances.

Read more at Microsoft On The Issues.

A job is a job right? Not really. Full-time work generally offers more stability and financial security than part time jobs. Those full-time jobs tend to be more accessible in richer countries, but in every part of the world, regardless of a country's economic output, there is still a wide gap between the full-time employment of men and women. Globally, 36 percent of men are secure in a full time job, compared to just 21 percent of women. Here's a look at how each region fares.

After a months-long investigation into whether President Donald Trump pressured Ukraine's president into investigating his political rivals in order to boost his reelection prospects in 2020, House Democrats brought two articles of impeachment against him, charging him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Click here for our GZERO guide to what comes next.

In the meantime, imagine for a moment that you are now Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority leader and senior member of Donald Trump's Republican Party. You've got big choices to make.

More Show less

After a months-long investigation into whether President Donald Trump pressured Ukraine's president into investigating his political rivals in order to boost his reelection prospects in 2020, House Democrats on Tuesday brought two articles of impeachment against him. They charge Trump with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

So, what are the next steps?

More Show less

Trump gets his deal – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that Democrats will back the USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Crucially, the bill will also have support from the nation's largest labor union. This is a major political victory for President Trump, who promised he would close this deal, but it's also good for Pelosi: it shows that the Democrats' House majority can still accomplish big things even as it impeaches the president. But with the speed of the Washington news cycle these days, we're watching to see if anyone is still talking about USMCA three days after it's signed.

More Show less