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A Week of Rising International Risk

A Week of Rising International Risk

The most consequential story in international politics right now is the sheer number of potentially consequential stories. Here are ten of them.


A Brexit Crash

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson reacts during a speech on domestic priorities at the Science and Industry Museum in Manchester

A Brexit Crash: UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says Britain will leave the European Union, with or without a deal on the future UK-EU relationship, by October 31. A no-deal Brexit poses serious economic risks for both sides. What if Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn calls a no-confidence vote, triggering a two-week process in which parliament must form an alternative majority to prevent an early election? Leaked comments from Johnson advisor Dominic Cummings signal that, even if an alternative majority becomes apparent, the prime minister could refuse to resign… and call an election to be held after October 31. Imagine the resulting chaos.

The bottom line: None of these stories is fated to end in disaster for those exposed to them. But all of them look to be moving in the wrong direction.

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​Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Finland's President Alexander Stubb, Estonia’s Prime Minister, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and other European leaders visit memorial to fallen Ukrainian defenders at the Independent Square on the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 24, 2026.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Finland's President Alexander Stubb, Estonia’s Prime Minister, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and other European leaders visit memorial to fallen Ukrainian defenders at the Independent Square on the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 24, 2026.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS
Somewhere in the Donbas region, Ukrainian soldier Artem Bondarenko says he hasn’t slept through the night in months as he defends Eastern Ukraine. Explosions won’t let him. He is dodging drones and fighting in the freezing trenches in a war that turns four years old today. At the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, many experts gave [...]
​People inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Friday, in Bednayel, Bekaa valley, Lebanon, February 21, 2026.

People inspect the damage at the site of an Israeli strike on Friday, in Bednayel, Bekaa valley, Lebanon, February 21, 2026.

REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
Israel reportedly warns Lebanon about further strikesIsrael indirectly warned Lebanon that it would strike its northern neighbor hard if the Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah gets involved in any future US-Iran conflict, two Lebanese officials told Reuters. Israel damaged Hezbollah severely in 2024 as part of strikes on southern Lebanon, killing [...]
Graphic Truth: Russia’s declining fossil fuel revenues
Russia’s revenues from its fossil fuel exports, which account for huge chunks of the Kremlin’s incomings, have dropped significantly during the course of the war. They are down 27% from the year before the invasion, and dropped 19% over the last year, according to a report from the Centre of Research on Energy and Clean Air. The main reason for [...]
​Members of the Mexican army stand guard at a roundabout on a main avenue in Guadalajara, Mexico, on February 23, 2026.

Members of the Mexican army stand guard at a roundabout on a main avenue, following a military operation in which Mexican officials said cartel boss Nemesio Oseguera, "El Mencho," was killed in Jalisco state, in Guadalajara, Mexico, on February 23, 2026.

REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez
62: The number of people killed – including 25 Mexican National Guard members and 34 suspected gang members – in the nationwide chaos that erupted following a military operation that killed one of Mexico’s most powerful cartel leaders, Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera, on Sunday. President Claudia Sheinbaum deployed 2,000 troops to Jalisco state, [...]