Biden's Middle East visit buys time for diplomacy
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What do you expect to come from Biden's Israel visit?
A few things. First of all, I can't imagine the Israelis engaging in ground occupation of Gaza before he shows up or while he's there. So give us a couple more days for diplomacy. That's really important. Secondly, pushing really hard on opening humanitarian aid to get into Gaza, also critical both in terms of reducing the catastrophe that is going to be wrought on the Palestinian citizenry, civilians living there and also potentially getting some of the hostages freed. That is possible once humanitarian aid comes in those conversations happening with the Qataris. Also the fact that you've got a couple of carrier strike groups means that Biden's forceful visit with enormous support for Israel should hopefully make Hezbollah, make the Iranians feel like a second front war. Not the best idea in this environment.
How likely will Hezbollah be brought into the war with Israel?
I suspect if they were going to go all in, they would have done it in the early days when the Israelis were shocked and before they could actually shore up and defend their northern border. It would be a lot more costly for them to do so right now. And clearly, the consequences coming not just from Israel but from the United States. So skirmishing, you know, rockets being sent over in small numbers, incursions, I can see that, but not much farther.
Will Putin accomplish anything by meeting with Xi at the Belt and Road Initiative?
Not very much. Little bit more investment into the Russian energy infrastructure, little more Russian oil coming to China for cheap. But I mean, this is not the friends without benefits without limits. That was originally discussed by Xi Jinping. Foreign Ministry in China doesn't say that anymore. And by the way, the guy that came up with that formulation, the senior official was actually demoted a year ago. Interesting. Certainly, Putin is happy to be on stage with people that still talk to him in a constructive way. But this relationship is not about to become a military alliance. And that's really important for everybody's watching.