What is Vladimir Putin thinking? It’s certainly not the first time we’ve asked the question: for 25 years, the wily ex-spy has shown a penchant for testing geopolitical limits, wrongfooting his opponents, and craftily antagonizing his adversaries. The latest episode is taking place on the high seas, where a tanker laden with some 730,000 barrels of Russian oil appears to be steaming towards Cuba.
If so, that places that ship, and the Kremlin itself, on a collision course with the Trump administration, which has imposed a de facto blockade on fuel shipments to the Communist-run island since early January. That was when the US abducted and deposed the president of Venezuela, which was Cuba’s main source of oil imports for decades. In the months since, the US has choked off virtually all fuel shipments to Cuba as the administration seeks to pressure the regime in Havana into doing a “deal” with Washington.
Experts believe that the US will try to stop the Russian ship – set to arrive as early as Monday – if it seeks to deliver its cargo to Cuba. On Thursday, in fact, the US Treasury reiterated that Cuba is on the list of countries that it prohibits from receiving Russian oil.
Why on earth would Putin risk a fresh showdown of this kind with the Trump administration at a time when things are, generally, coming up aces for the Kremlin?
After all, just a month ago, Putin was in a tough spot: tighter US sanctions and lower oil prices were squeezing revenues and starving his war machine. Trump, meanwhile, was demanding progress towards peace in Ukraine.
The US-Israel war with Iran has changed all of that. Oil prices are now soaring. The US is loosening its sanctions. Russian coffers are filling up again. Meanwhile, attention to Ukraine has faded. Peace talks are suspended. Washington is even reportedly redirecting critical air defenses from Kyiv to US forces in the Middle East.
With so much going right, why risk something going wrong? Experts say there are a few reasons why Putin is taking this gamble.
For one thing, the need in Cuba, a close ally of Moscow’s since the Soviet era – is acute. Even before Trump’s latest pressure campaign, the island was in a deep economic crisis brought on by decades of economic mismanagement and US sanctions. The fuel-chokeout has pushed things to the brink. Cuba produces only 40% of its own oil needs. The rest – most of which came from Venezuela with a smattering from Mexico and other suppliers – has been effectively shut out since January. Blackouts are now occurring nearly daily. Shops are shuttered, and even hospitals are cancelling surgeries due to a lack of power.
The Russian oil would amount to barely 10 days worth of consumption, but even that would be a lifeline, showing that when push comes to shove, the Kremlin is willing to give support to old friends and allies.
But there are strategic considerations as well, says Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s top Russia analyst. The gambit in Cuba may be part of a wider strategy of selectively needling the West in order to create more leverage where he wants it: in Ukraine.
“You see this in the intelligence help for the Iranians, the cyber and sabotage campaigns in Europe,” Brideau says. “Russia is trying to leverage some of these actions to extract something from Washington.”
That something, he says, is more pressure on Ukraine where, from the Kremlin’s perspective, Trump still hasn’t brought Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky close enough to Russia’s demands.
Whether the strategy of works remains to be seen. It may be that the Russian boat stops before reaching Cuba, or that the Kremlin simply allows it to be interdicted by the US. But the gamble itself is worth it, says Brideau.
“Going about it the other way – staying out of the US’s way in Venezuela – hasn’t done anything to help either.”
