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Flags of China and Canada are displayed next to the logo of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Canada mulls AIIB withdrawal
While Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s been busy trying to stabilize US-China relations, Canada has temporarily frozen its relationship with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, citing possible infiltration from the Chinese Communist Party. The allegations, which China denied, came from the bank’s former global head of communications, Bob Pickard.
What is the AIIB? It’s a sometimes-rival, sometimes-partner of the Asian Development Bank with a pledged capitalization of nearly US$100 billion (a third comes from China; roughly $1 billion comes from Canada). It has over 100 members, including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. But the US — which controls the ABD along with Japan — opted not to join in 2015 under pressure from Congress and over concerns about China’s geopolitical goals. The Obama administration, seeing the AIIB as a regional rival, also tried but failed to keep its allies from joining.
Canada is investigating Pickard’s claims that the CCP infiltrated the bank – an allegation that seems obviously true and consistent with the practice of mega-world powers dominating multilateral institutions. Politically, Trudeau’s government has to react to the allegations – after all, this is playing out amid a Canadian public inquiry into alleged election interference by China.
But in a world increasingly marked by realpolitik, Ottawa also has to leave room for all sides to save face. Canada has no interest in falling too far out of step with the US-China relationship, and with Blinken’s ongoing efforts to stabilize relations with Beijing, Canada can’t alienate itself from China.
This is why, despite the freeze, Canada’s ambassador to Beijing is insisting that Canada and China are not adversaries … and why we don’t expect much to come from the AIIB investigation.Image of Xi Jinping in the background of a performance during the 100th anniversary of China's Communist Party in Beijing.
What makes Xi Jinping tick?
Later this week, Xi Jinping will get a precedent-shattering third term as secretary-general of China's ruling Communist Party. He's the most influential CCP leader since Deng Xiaoping and has elevated himself to the same stature as Mao Zedong. Xi now has virtually unfettered power in the world's most populous country and second-largest economy.
Yet, we know surprisingly little about him. China’s leader is not on social media, gives few interviews, and his bland public statements and carefully curated official biography offer few clues about what’s on his mind. Although Chinese kids study Xi Jinping Thought, he remains a black box for anyone outside of the CCP elite and those who know him personally.
So, what makes Xi tick? "He's motivated by power, by his understanding of Chinese history, by his sense of entitlement and privilege, and by China's future," says Sue-Lin Wong, former China correspondent for the The Economist and host of the podcast "The Prince" about all things Xi.
Xi's background is more complex than you'd think. On the one hand, he's the son of Xi Zhongxun, a revolutionary who fought alongside Mao in the Civil War and later became his chief propagandist and vice premier. Like most of China's current leadership, Xi is CCP royalty and benefited from his dad's street cred in rising to the top of the party.
On the other hand, the elder Xi was also one of many CCP senior officials who were purged by the Red Guards in the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976), when his entire family was exiled to the countryside and had to live in a cave. But instead of blaming the party for his hardship, as some of his peers did, Xi’s takeaway was that such chaos must never, ever happen again.
"He believes that the party lost control” during that time, says Wong. “And so as long as the party stays in control, everything will be fine.”
That explains why Xi was equally traumatized by the end of the Soviet Union. He will do anything to stop the CCP from crumbling like the USSR — which to this day haunts the Chinese Communists.
Still, Xi the control freak faces tough internal and external challenges as he cements his power amid turbulent times for China. Zero-COVID is doing such a number on the economy that China is sitting on its latest GDP growth numbers, and the property market is performing so poorly that Xi didn't mention it in his keynote speech on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Russia's war in Ukraine — started by his BFF Vladimir Putin — is making the geopolitical environment more uncertain than Xi is comfortable with. But even if Putin gets humiliated in Ukraine, don’t expect Xi to side with the West.
After all, Xi sees the US as the top obstacle to realizing his ambitions: America will do whatever it take to keep China down. In this sense Xi particularly resents US support for Taiwan, which the West views as a democracy heroically standing up to authoritarian China but Beijing regards as its 23rd province.
Xi's ambition and drive cannot be understated in his quest to make China strong, with him calling all the shots. "I don't think there are many world leaders who lived in a cave for seven years as a teenager and have risen through the ranks of the CCP, which is this incredibly brutal, angry political machine," Wong says.
Unlike his predecessors, who accepted term limits, Xi sees his one-man rule as the best solution for China. No wonder the party intends to officially give him the symbolic title of "Great Helmsman" like Mao, which carries great weight in CCP political culture.
For Wong, Xi thinks “he is the man to be steering that ship and to be navigating China through these stormy waters” of COVID, a slowing Chinese economy, the war in Ukraine, and growing tensions with the West.
But his determination to be all-powerful might hurt Xi in the long run. If he continues surrounding himself with yes-men over experts, few will want to give him bad news and he might start making the wrong choices. And refusing to appoint a successor is a huge gamble if he encounters a health problem.
“That could have terrible implications,” Wong warns, “not just for the whole of China, but for the rest of the world."
This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Visitors walk past an image of President Xi Jinping holding a ballot ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in Beijing.
What We’re Watching: China’s party congress, US-Mexico migrant deal
China's party is having a party
China's ruling Communist Party kicks off its 20th Congress on Sunday. By far the most-followed event in Chinese politics, the CCP will give itself, as always, a (glowing) report card and lay out how it'll govern China until 2027. All eyes will be on Xi Jinping, a shoo-in to get a precedent-shattering third term as CCP secretary-general, paving the way for him to become China’s leader for life. What's more, Xi is also expected to adopt the symbolic title of “Helmsman,” putting him at the same level as Mao Zedong. Perhaps even more importantly, by the end of next week, we'll know the composition of Politburo's elite Standing Committee, whose seven members — including Xi himself — have the final say on major political, economic, and social issues. If the bulk of them are Xi loyalists instead of technocrats, that'll be a signal that he prioritizes political control over the structural reforms China needs to fix its big problems. Finally, keep an eye out for the order in which the seven men step onto the stage of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. If none of them is in his mid-50s and stands close to Xi, that’ll mean he hasn’t picked a successor yet.
Biden to Venezuelans: Steer clear of Mexico border
Under a new US-Mexico agreement, undocumented Venezuelan asylum-seekers who are caught crossing into the US from Mexico will be sent back across the border. At the same time, however, Washington will now grant temporary residence and emigration flights to 24,000 Venezuelans who have applied for asylum from their home country and have a sponsor in the US. Since 2018, six million have fled political repression and economic collapse in Venezuela, making it one of the world’s worst refugee crises. Many of them have undertaken dangerous journeys on foot through Colombia, Central America, and Mexico. Until now, Washington has allowed Venezuelans to remain in the US while their asylum cases were reviewed. But with record numbers of undocumented migrants arriving at the US southern border, and midterms fast approaching, the White House is utilizing the controversial Trump-era Title 42 provision that allows officials to swiftly expel migrants who arrive without papers.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
A WFP official looks on as UN-chartered ship carrying Ukrainian wheat docks in Djibouti.
What We're Watching: Africa got grain, Ukraine counteroffensive, CCP save the date
Ukrainian grain arrives in Africa
Finally, some more good food news. The first cargo of Ukrainian grain to Africa since the Russian invasion docked Tuesday in Djibouti en route to famished Ethiopia. The UN-chartered ship carries 23,000 metric tons of wheat, enough to feed some 1.5 million Ethiopians for a month. But the drought-stricken country needs a lot more, particularly amid an ongoing civil war in the northern Tigray region that’s caused a humanitarian crisis. What's more, neighboring Somalia and Kenya are also at risk of famine due to the Horn of Africa’s worst drought in 40 years. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, UN food agencies got three-quarters of their grain from Ukraine, so they've had to scale down their operations in the region right when food aid is most needed. The UN-brokered deal for Russia to resume grain shipments from Ukraine's Black Sea ports is slowly bringing down global food prices, which were soaring in part because until recently 20 million metric tons of grain meant for export were stuck in Ukraine. It also offers relief to African nations, many of which have been hit hard by rising food prices stemming from the war between the Sunflower Superpowers. Food shipments are coming, but they are slow — especially for the 22 million people across the Horn of Africa who are at risk of starvation.
Will Ukraine's counteroffensive succeed?
Ukrainian forces continued Tuesday their counteroffensive against the Russian military in the southern Kherson region, launching attacks inside Russian-held territory that Kyiv hopes will disrupt the enemy's supply lines and pin down its troops. The long-awaited assault aims to take back territory that Moscow captured at the start of the invasion, when Russian soldiers moved into southern Ukraine from Crimea. If the counteroffensive is successful, recapturing Kherson would serve the twin goals of boosting Ukrainian morale and severing Russia's land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula — right when the Kremlin is reportedly getting ready to hold a sham referendum to formally incorporate Kherson (with a population of 290,000 before the war) into Russia. Still, the campaign has only just begun, and hitting Russian targets with Western-supplied long-range weapons is only the prelude to what’ll be a tougher fight to retake urban centers. Meanwhile, an international team of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency is on its way to check out the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest. Heavy shelling there has raised fears of an accident in a nation still traumatized by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
Date set for China's 20th Party Congress
China's ruling Communist Party announced Tuesday that it'll hold its much-anticipated 20th Party Congress starting Oct. 16. At the event, which takes place every five years, the CCP will lay out its plans until 2027, with President Xi Jinping widely expected to secure a norm-defying third term as CCP secretary-general. But the gathering comes at a particularly bad time for Xi: China's economy is sputtering and will surely miss its 5.5% annual growth target due to the combined effects of an energy crunch, a property market slump, piling debt, and importantly, zero-COVID. (Indeed, millions of people were placed under lockdown Tuesday over fresh virus outbreaks in cities in Hebei province, a three-hour drive from Beijing.) Still, despite earlier rumors of him losing a bit of his grip on the party, after a decade in charge Xi has accumulated more CCP power than any Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping or Mao Zedong. One thing to keep an eye out for is whether the party signals its intention to start relaxing zero-COVID after the meeting.- "Lives at risk" in Sub-Saharan Africa due to rising food and fuel costs - GZERO Media ›
- Focus on Africa: hunger, energy, climate - and the path to growth - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Is Ukraine's counteroffensive failing, or is the tide about to turn? - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink - GZERO Media ›