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Odessa grain terminal on fire from Russian airstrike
Grain warfare: Russia escalates the conflict
In the wake of Russia withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal on Monday, the Kremlin announced on Wednesday that it will consider all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports as hostile vessels, escalating tensions at sea and further impeding Ukraine’s ability to export grain.
Russian forces will deem all Ukrainian-bound ships as potential carriers of military cargo, making commercial vessels potential targets. Moscow also suspended conventional safety guarantees to sailors in the areas where Ukraine’s main Black Sea ports are located. The threat will deter many commercial ships from exporting anything from Ukraine’s ports, even grain that many countries – especially in the Global South – depend upon.
Hours after pulling out of the deal, Russia began a bombing campaign targeting Odessa’s grain terminals that continued into Wednesday. The strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain, injured civilians, and sent a message to the world: Putin is not afraid to weaponize the world's food supply.
Ukrainian grain is a major stabilizer of global prices. Wheat prices had already risen 5% this week, thanks to Russia’s decision to pull out of the deal. They are expected to climb higher as the Black Sea becomes too dangerous for commercial shippers. Under the grain deal, 63% of Ukraine's grain exports were being shipped via Black Sea ports. Without those ports, exporters will have to use land routes, raising transportation costs by 38%.
Ukrainian flag is covered with grains.
What We’re Watching: Lavrov meeting UN chief Guterres, Biden hosting South Korea’s President Yoon
Playing chicken with grain again
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will meet UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Monday in New York for talks on renewing that crucial Ukraine grain export deal.
To rewind, last year, with the Ukraine war contributing to soaring global food prices, the UN and Turkey brokered an agreement for Russia to lift a naval blockade that was preventing Ukraine from exporting its huge grain harvests to the world. At the same time, the UN also agreed to help Russia boost its own massive exports of grain and fertilizer, which had fallen because of financial sanctions against the Kremlin.
By tamping down global food prices, the deal helped prevent more than 100 million people from falling into extreme poverty, according to the UN. But Russia says it hasn’t seen enough progress on its own grain and fertilizer exports, and Moscow is threatening to ditch the grain deal altogether when it next comes up for renewal on May 18.
Let’s see whether Guterres and Lavrov can separate the wheat from the chaff on this to grind out an agreement.
Beyond that, expect some diplomatic fireworks as Lavrov chairs two meetings of the UN Security Council, where Russia currently holds the rotating presidency. How does, say, Ukraine feel about that? See our recent interview with Kyiv’s UN envoy Sergiy Kyslytsya.
South Korean president’s jam-packed US agenda
President Yoon Suk Yeol lands in Washington, DC, on Monday for a busy week of political engagements to coincide with the 70th anniversary of South Korea’s alliance with the US.
On Wednesday, he will be honored by President Joe Biden at a state dinner, making him the second world leader after France’s Emmanuel Macron to be given the distinction. Yoon will also address a joint session of Congress, which could be sort of awkward given that last year Yoon was caught on a hot mic calling Congress members “idiots” if they didn’t allocate funds for global public health.
A White House state dinner is a big honor for a world leader, but the events come at a tricky time in US-South Korea relations. That’s because a recent intelligence leak revealed that Washington has been spying on Seoul. Controversially, the cables revealed that the South Koreans were considering whether to send lethal arms to Ukraine – creating a political hurricane for the government at home.
Yoon’s agenda is vast. Amid growing concern about North Korea’s bellicose behavior, he aims to get reassurance from Washington that it has its back. This comes after a recent survey found that 54.2% of South Koreans think the US would not risk its safety to defend South Korea from a nuclear attack by Pyongyang.
While in Washington, Yoon will largely be playing for a domestic audience. Facing a disapproval rating of 75% and increasing antipathy back home, he hopes to convince voters that he can effectively advocate for South Korea's foreign policy interests. This includes addressing Seoul’s concerns over the US Inflation Reduction Act, particularly provisions on electric vehicles that South Korea says violate international trade rules.
A family tries to flee Khartoum.
What We’re Watching: US preps Sudan embassy evacuation, Kosovo election boycott, US abortion pill decision, Ukrainian grain curbs, Schumacher’s “interview"
US seeks to evacuate embassy as Sudan crisis deepens
One American has been killed amid the fighting in Sudan this week, the State Department said Thursday. With the security situation worsening, the US is preparing for a possible evacuation of roughly 70 embassy staffers by deploying troops to nearby Djibouti who could help with the operation.
But amid ongoing bombardments in Khartoum, the capital, Washington acknowledges that any evacuations will be hard to pull off – whether they involve embassy workers or the 19,000 US citizens living in Sudan.
This comes as two warring military factions, both linked to the country's former autocrat Omar al-Bashir, have been locked in a battle for almost a week that’s caused Khartoum’s 5 million residents to hide in their homes. Fighting has also prompted tens of thousands to flee into neighboring Chad. (For more on the causes of the conflict and regional implications, see here.)
Other states – including Japan and Germany – have already tried to evacuate their citizens but have been forced to stand down as Khartoum’s airfields remain closed due to heavy shelling.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating. After a tenuous ceasefire broke down Wednesday, the World Health Organization said that the death toll had surpassed 300. What’s more, Khartoum residents say they are quickly running out of food as the UN has suspended aid deliveries and many stores have run out of supplies.
Kosovo’s ghost elections
This Sunday, Kosovo holds municipal elections in northern regions of the country where tensions have flared between the local Serb majority and the Kosovan national government. There’s one big problem: The Serbs are boycotting the vote.
Local Serb leaders say they won’t recognize the national government until they’re permitted to form a long-promised, quasi-autonomous association of Serb municipalities. Kosovan authorities are setting up polling locations anyway.
The background? Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008. Serbia never recognized the move, and northern Kosovo – where many ethnic Serbs still consider Belgrade their capital – has been a tinderbox ever since. Last year, clashes even erupted over the introduction of Kosovan license plates, and violence has already caused this Sunday’s elections to be postponed once, from last December.
Kosovo and Serbia recently agreed to an EU-backed peace plan, but progress will be halting at best. Serbia’s president recently said Kosovo will “remain in Serbia” during his term. We’re watching the polls this Sunday, especially if no one goes to them.
See our Kosovo explainer here.
US’s abortion pill litigation battle
Abortion pill access in the US is still in legal limbo after the Supreme Court extended until midnight Friday a deadline on whether to uphold a lower court’s ban on the use of mifepristone, an abortion pill.
Justice Samuel Alito issued a terse statement Wednesday saying that the deadline had been extended by 48 hours. Some analysts took this as a sign that the court, which gutted the landmark Roe v. Wade decision last summer, is struggling to reach a decision, though that remains speculation.
This development comes after a federal judge in Texas recently banned the use of the drug, approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in 2000, before a federal appeals court then ruled that mifepristone can remain on the market until the Supreme Court decides. Still, the appellate judges stripped back some provisions introduced in 2016 to enhance access to abortion pills, including allowing them to be sent by mail.
Whatever happens Friday, the litigation will continue as the Justice Department, representing the FDA, and drug makers, continue to pursue legal cases to keep abortion medication – accounting for 50% of abortions nationwide – on the market.
EU steps in to rescue Eastern Europe from Ukrainian grain
The EU is implementing emergency restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports to five member states neighboring the war-torn country. The move comes after Poland and Hungary took unilateral actions to rescue their farmers from the influx of Ukraine’s cheap grain.
With Black Sea ports caught up in the fighting, neighboring countries have been the sole transit routes for Ukrainian exports. But the high costs of transporting grain this way (and the relative cheapness of importing it from Latin America) trapped millions of tons of grain in Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, and Slovakia. As local prices plummeted, countries implemented individual bans on Ukrainian imports despite warnings from Brussels.
The upcoming “preventative measures” seek to be a universal solution substituting for piecemeal bans that risk destabilizing the entire market. Brussels is also organizing convoys to transport the grain from the bloc to where it can be sent to countries in need.
The measures come along with €100 million ($109 million) worth of compensation for farmers who have been enraged by plummeting prices. But as Brussels pays to disperse the grain across the continent, farmers in Western Europe need to brace themselves for local prices to take a hit.
Fake Schumacher, real lawsuit
Ten years after suffering a severe head injury that left him incapacitated, legendary Formula One driver Michael Schumacher miraculously gave his first interview this week.
Or so it seemed. The exchange with German tabloid Die Aktuelle was actually generated by an AI program. Schumacher’s family is now planning legal action.
Frankly, we’re a little disappointed in Die Aktuelle. This isn’t like the AI-generated Drake/Weeknd song that blew up earlier this week. In that case, a computer actually mimicked the voices of those artists so well that millions of people thought they were listening to the real thing.
But with Die Aktuelle, it’s just … printed words, and flat ones like, “My wife and my children were a blessing to me and without them I would not have managed it.”
We’re not sure why the ‘zine went to the trouble of using an AI program rather than just making up fake quotes themselves. Can’t humans do anything anymore?
A protester with vanished nails in Iranian flag holds a portrait of Mahsa Amini.
What We’re Watching: 40 days of protest in Iran, Franco-German tensions, good grain news
On Wednesday, Iranian authorities fired tear gas and live ammunition at mourners in Kurdistan province as they marched to the grave of Mahsa Amini 40 days after her in-custody death. Thousands ignored road blockades and marched through a field to reach Aichi Cemetery to pay their respects to the 22-year-old, who was reportedly beaten when arrested for wearing her hijab “improperly.” Meanwhile, protests continued around the country, taking hold most notably in the traditionally conservative grand bazaar in downtown Tehran, where people chanted “freedom” and called for the ousting of the supreme leader. It’s been six weeks since Amini’s death energized a women-led movement in Iran that has galvanized students, labor unions, and oil workers who are calling for the toppling of the repressive Islamic Republic. Human rights groups say more than 200 protesters have been killed by Iranian forces since demonstrations began, including dozens of children. What’s more, thousands have reportedly been arrested, and warehouses have been converted into makeshift prisons to house them. The stakes for Iranians couldn’t be higher, and yet the daily protests persist.
A Franco-German rift
France’s President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz seemed chummy when they met on Wednesday at the Elysée Palace, but relations between Europe’s two largest economies are more strained than they’ve been in years. Macron, for his part, has made no secret of the fact that he feels Scholz, who came into office just before Russia invaded Ukraine, has snubbed France – and the broader EU – by adopting a go-at-it-alone approach in response to the war, which Germany denies. Paris was particularly peeved when Berlin implemented a 200 billion euro ($200 billion) program to subsidize gas prices while rebuffing a bloc-wide energy price cap scheme centered on burden sharing. Additionally, although Berlin finally agreed to up its defense spending in recent months, the French lament that Germany is buying up American-made hardware rather than French firearms and European equipment – in line with Macron’s vision of “European strategic autonomy.” Though both sides seem interested in mending ties, the relationship will be tested further as Scholz prepares to visit China on Nov. 3 to deepen economic integration with Beijing, a move France has cautioned against.
Good food news from ... Zimbabwe
While many African countries have struggled this year to produce enough food due to grain shortages from Russia's war in Ukraine, Zimbabwe is set to have its largest-ever wheat harvest: 380,000 tons. It's a big deal for Southern Africa's former breadbasket-turned-basket-case under the dismal agricultural policies of ex-strongman Robert Mugabe. So, what's the secret sauce? Go small. The government has empowered smallholder farmers by giving them irrigation infrastructure and hard-to-get fertilizer to grow wheat, a cash crop traditionally reserved for Big Ag. What's more, Zimbabwe plans to use its surplus wheat to build a strategic reserve of the grain as insurance against future supply shocks. But there are two caveats. First, the smallholder-grown wheat is considered "soft" and must be blended with imported hard wheat to make bread. Second, farmers warn that more intense bushfires and rains — thank you climate change — might dampen hopes of a wheat windfall.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
A WFP official looks on as UN-chartered ship carrying Ukrainian wheat docks in Djibouti.
What We're Watching: Africa got grain, Ukraine counteroffensive, CCP save the date
Ukrainian grain arrives in Africa
Finally, some more good food news. The first cargo of Ukrainian grain to Africa since the Russian invasion docked Tuesday in Djibouti en route to famished Ethiopia. The UN-chartered ship carries 23,000 metric tons of wheat, enough to feed some 1.5 million Ethiopians for a month. But the drought-stricken country needs a lot more, particularly amid an ongoing civil war in the northern Tigray region that’s caused a humanitarian crisis. What's more, neighboring Somalia and Kenya are also at risk of famine due to the Horn of Africa’s worst drought in 40 years. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, UN food agencies got three-quarters of their grain from Ukraine, so they've had to scale down their operations in the region right when food aid is most needed. The UN-brokered deal for Russia to resume grain shipments from Ukraine's Black Sea ports is slowly bringing down global food prices, which were soaring in part because until recently 20 million metric tons of grain meant for export were stuck in Ukraine. It also offers relief to African nations, many of which have been hit hard by rising food prices stemming from the war between the Sunflower Superpowers. Food shipments are coming, but they are slow — especially for the 22 million people across the Horn of Africa who are at risk of starvation.
Will Ukraine's counteroffensive succeed?
Ukrainian forces continued Tuesday their counteroffensive against the Russian military in the southern Kherson region, launching attacks inside Russian-held territory that Kyiv hopes will disrupt the enemy's supply lines and pin down its troops. The long-awaited assault aims to take back territory that Moscow captured at the start of the invasion, when Russian soldiers moved into southern Ukraine from Crimea. If the counteroffensive is successful, recapturing Kherson would serve the twin goals of boosting Ukrainian morale and severing Russia's land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula — right when the Kremlin is reportedly getting ready to hold a sham referendum to formally incorporate Kherson (with a population of 290,000 before the war) into Russia. Still, the campaign has only just begun, and hitting Russian targets with Western-supplied long-range weapons is only the prelude to what’ll be a tougher fight to retake urban centers. Meanwhile, an international team of inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency is on its way to check out the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe's largest. Heavy shelling there has raised fears of an accident in a nation still traumatized by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
Date set for China's 20th Party Congress
China's ruling Communist Party announced Tuesday that it'll hold its much-anticipated 20th Party Congress starting Oct. 16. At the event, which takes place every five years, the CCP will lay out its plans until 2027, with President Xi Jinping widely expected to secure a norm-defying third term as CCP secretary-general. But the gathering comes at a particularly bad time for Xi: China's economy is sputtering and will surely miss its 5.5% annual growth target due to the combined effects of an energy crunch, a property market slump, piling debt, and importantly, zero-COVID. (Indeed, millions of people were placed under lockdown Tuesday over fresh virus outbreaks in cities in Hebei province, a three-hour drive from Beijing.) Still, despite earlier rumors of him losing a bit of his grip on the party, after a decade in charge Xi has accumulated more CCP power than any Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping or Mao Zedong. One thing to keep an eye out for is whether the party signals its intention to start relaxing zero-COVID after the meeting.- "Lives at risk" in Sub-Saharan Africa due to rising food and fuel costs - GZERO Media ›
- Focus on Africa: hunger, energy, climate - and the path to growth - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Is Ukraine's counteroffensive failing, or is the tide about to turn? - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine's counteroffensive on the brink - GZERO Media ›