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Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a campaign rally.
How will Marcos 2.0 rule the Philippines?
The Marcoses are back in power in the Philippines.
What seemed unthinkable just months ago became reality on Monday. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator, is on the cusp of winning the presidential election by a landslide. What's more, he's the first candidate to get more than 50% of the vote in the single-round race since his family was chased out of power in 1986.
This decisive triumph is the culmination of a decades-long quest by the most famous and polarizing dynasty in modern Philippine politics to restore its legacy and return to Malacañang Palace. But will Marcos govern like his autocrat dad or deliver on his vague promise of "unity" to appease Filipinos with bitter memories of his father’s iron-fisted rule and kleptocracy?
A second Marcos presidency will put the country’s democracy on life support, argues Aries Arugay, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman.
"Philippine democracy has been rapidly eroding under [current President Rodrigo] Duterte by all metrics," says Arugay. He doesn’t believe the democratic system will collapse under Marcos but rather move toward "the most minimal procedural definition of democracy” — elections that can easily be manipulated by the state.
In any case, Arugay expects the broader illiberal trend to continue. It’s only a matter of time, he fears, before Marcos resorts to populist-authoritarian strategies to consolidate power — such as removing presidential term limits — because winning an absolute majority gives him a blank check.
But maybe Marcos will be the unifier he claims to be, says Antonio Contreras, professor of political science at De La Salle University and a Marcos supporter. Marcos, he argues, will show Filipinos he can succeed where previous presidents failed by charming his critics.
"He's not going to be confrontational," explains Contreras. "He's going to try to do a lot of diplomacy by talking to people who are against him” — including those who remain suspicious of his motives because “they cannot separate the son from the father."
Still, Marcos’ wide margin of victory suggests that many Filipinos are nostalgic about the strongman rule of his dad, which may have prompted them to vote for Duterte six years ago.
"There is still that memory, that longing, that nostalgia," says Contreras. Post-1986 democracy, he points out, has failed to deliver in the eyes of many Filipinos because it neither transformed society nor proved to be any better than the “old regime.”
Indeed, the Marcos campaign has successfully pushed the "golden era" narrative on social media. His army of bots targeted Gen-Z'ers with viral disinformation videos on TikTok, and the strategy worked: the 64-year-old's "base" is Filipinos under 40, which account for more than half the electorate.
Once he takes over, Arugay expects Marcos to follow in Duterte's footsteps by weaponizing social media to keep cultivating his image and protect his regime against critics.
"Given the pernicious polarization the country is in right now, this disinformation network is needed to rally the troops, target enemies, and hide the possible incompetence and mismanagement of his government," he says. "It’ll be a lean and mean propaganda-spewing machine."
One area where Marcos would be wise to follow his dad's playbook is foreign policy. The elder Marcos was a master at leveraging the Philippines' strategic value for the US war in Vietnam to get things from Washington, which supported him almost until the end and granted his family exile in Hawaii.
Now, his son faces a similar challenge with his country caught in the crossfire of the US-China rivalry.
"It's going to be a balancing act," says Contreras. While the Philippines has a longstanding relationship with the US, Duterte moved the country closer to China, and Beijing is eager to retain influence over Manila due to its interest in the disputed South China Sea. It would thus be "suicidal" for Marcos to “put all his eggs in one basket” like Duterte did with China.
Arugay agrees. If he's well-advised, Marcos will hedge on US-China like (most of) his predecessors did. But if the Americans push him too hard, he might double down on Duterte's approach and embrace China more — which a majority of Filipinos will surely resent.Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a campaign rally.
Dynasty + disinformation = Philippine democracy
The Philippine presidential election is a week away, and two uncomfortable characteristics of modern democracy in the country — dynasty and disinformation — are expected to shape the result.
Leading the polls by a wide margin is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator. The elder Marcos ruled the Philippines for 21 years, including eight years under martial law, before he was overthrown in 1986 by the so-called “People Power” uprising against his kleptocracy.
Two scions team up. Marcos has partnered with VP hopeful Sara Duterte, daughter of the outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, who was ahead of her running mate in the surveys before she opted to run for the second-highest office instead. Although she has maintained a distance from her father, the Marcos-Duterte combination is a potent one that spans the country’s geography and demography, allying the northern districts loyal to Marcos with the deep south, where the Dutertes are most powerful.
Both have enjoyed the privilege of power under their respective fathers’ rules. Marcos entered politics as a vice governor in 1981, when his dad was still in power, and until recently Duterte was mayor of her hometown of Davao City, her father’s old job.
All in the family. Dynasties, a longtime staple of Philippine politics, have tightened their grip on power in recent years. Research by online news site Rappler shows that so-called "fat" dynasties – where several members simultaneously hold elected posts — now occupy 29% of local offices, 80% of governorships, and two-thirds of seats in Congress.
To prove the point, Duterte’s two sons are eyeing congressional and mayoral seats in the upcoming elections, and Marcos’ son is also being prepped as an heir-apparent.
Laws that are supposed to curb the influence of political families don't work — hardly surprising given that they've been passed by politicians who themselves belong to dynasties. For instance, many posts are limited to three consecutive terms, but the trick is to get a spouse or child to keep the seat warm for one term, and then run again.
Still, being a Marcos also comes with serious baggage because it’s perhaps the most polarizing name in Philippine politics.
Marcos’ ascent is a divisive subject and opens up the wounds of the past. However, where some see the entrenched power of dynastic politics and patronage, propelled by a slick PR campaign that has done a remarkable job of whitewashing the family’s sins, a new generation sees vindication.
Indeed, Marcos has found his edge in demographics. The majority of Filipinos who’ll vote for president on May 9 are under 30 years old. They didn’t grow up under his father’s martial law regime, under which 70,000 people were detained, 34,000 tortured, and over 3,000 killed.
The younger Marcos’ carefully crafted rise to presidential frontrunner status is the culmination of a years-long, sophisticated social media disinformation strategy pushing his father’s rule as a golden era. He’s also been careful to avoid debates so he doesn’t have to talk about what his family did, and he lets big-name local politicians campaign on his behalf.
Meanwhile, his main rival, Vice President Leni Robredo, has been the target of a constant barrage of online disinformation, much of it about her and her family’s sex lives, by pro-Marcos supporters.
When the likes of Facebook, Twitter and Wikipedia have taken action against his trolls, bots, spam and manipulation, and even the powerful Catholic Church rejected the online “historical revisionism,” the Marcos campaign responded by pivoting to newer platforms like TikTok to appeal to the Philippines’ massive vote bank of Gen-Z’ers, converting teenagers and influencers who are far removed from the trauma of martial law to sympathize with the Marcos dynasty.
Can anyone beat the dynamic dynastic duo? Of the other candidates, the only one with a shot — albeit a long one — at being a spoiler for the Marcos-Duterte ticket is Robredo, also the lone female presidential candidate.
Robredo, who beat Marcos for VP in 2016, has carved out a reputation as a fierce critic of Duterte's strong-arm tactics. Although she trails Marcos by double digits, her campaign is experiencing a late surge in numbers attending her vibrant, proudly feminist rallies in a political culture that’s as misogynistic as it is dynastic.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and French President Emmanuel Macron. February 8, 2022.
Macron in Kyiv, Philippine vote, Haiti assassination probe
Macron does the rounds. French President Emmanuel Macron is on a diplomatic tour to find a solution to the Ukraine crisis. On Monday, he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two chatted for five hours, with Macron reporting he had “secured an assurance there would be no deterioration or escalation.” But Russia later said Macron’s version was “not right,” and pushed back against reports that Putin had agreed to withdraw troops from Belarus. Was Putin lashing out because Macron left the Kremlin to fly to Kyiv where he reaffirmed Europe's commitment to Ukraine? Either way, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who’s set to meet with Putin in Moscow on Feb. 15, will be taking note. Tellingly, Macron appeared less sanguine in Kyiv, saying the stalemate could continue for months.
Will the Marcos family rise again? Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., son of the late dictator, is the frontrunner to succeed outgoing Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. Marcos, alongside VP running mate Sara Duterte — whose father is ineligible to run due to term limits — is polling well ahead of his rivals. Marcos has a massive social media presence, but he remains a polarizing figure due to his dad's legacy of kleptocracy and martial law. He recently beat a disqualification petition against him over an old tax conviction, but several more are pending. While the cases make their way through the courts, expect a campaign dominated by personalities and political dynasties in a country where name recognition is the only game in town. The official race kicked off this week, and the election will be held on May 9.
Haiti assassination plot thickens. Haitian President Jovenel Moïse was killed at his home in Port-au-Prince last summer, and former Colombian military personnel arrested in connection with his assassination have claimed they were set up. But now a bombshell CNN report says Prime Minister Ariel Henry, a doctor who has served as interim leader since Moïse’s murder, was involved in the plot and has tried to thwart the murder investigation. What’s more, Henry, who heads large swaths of the justice department, has been accused of firing prosecutors and judges who sought potential charges against him. While some observers have criticized the US for not pressuring Henry to step down, American officials are likely wary of anything that could lead to more upheaval.The other big elections of 2022
A few days ago we previewed five major elections to watch in 2022. Here are some others we'll be paying close attention to in the months ahead.
South Korea (March). South Korean voters will choose between two very different options to replace Moon Jae-in, the term-limited incumbent. The candidate from the ruling center-left party is Lee Jae-myung, a former civil rights lawyer and governor known as the South Korean Bernie Sanders because he backs a universal basic income. Lee’s rival and center-right hopeful is Yoon Seok-youl, a former prosecutor who helped convict former president Park Geun-hye of abuse of power in 2016.
On foreign policy, Lee wants warmer ties with China, more control over US forces in South Korea, and to play nice with North Korea. For his part, Yoon wants to push back more against China, bolster the US alliance, and deploy US tactical nukes on South Korean soil to deter Pyongyang. Yoon is ahead in the polls, yet not by much. Lee is more experienced and popular with young voters, who could decide the outcome if they turn up in high numbers.
Australia (by May 21). Australians will go to the polls before the end of May. It's a legislative election, so the party that gets a majority of seats in parliament will pick the next prime minister. The approval rating of the current PM, Scott Morrison of the right-leaning Liberal Coalition, is now at its lowest in 18 months due to frustration over one of the world's longest and strictest pandemic lockdowns, which has pummeled Aussie businesses.
Still, the Coalition remains neck-and-neck in the polls with the opposition Labor Party, struggling to capitalize on Morrison's unpopularity. The main campaign issues will likely be climate, but perhaps more COVID and the economy. On foreign policy, both parties want to maintain close ties with the US, support the AUKUS regional military alliance, and have similar views on China — although Labor doesn't want Australia to be in complete lockstep with America as it says Canberra has been under Morrison.
The Philippines (May). Philippine elections have always been deeply polarizing, and next year's will be no different. The current frontrunner in the race to succeed term-limited President Rodrigo Duterte is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator. Marcos, a staunch Duterte ally, has the president's daughter as his running mate, and right now more than half of Filipinos would vote for him.
But Marcos is reviled by other Filipinos, who remember how his strongman dad embezzled up to $10 billion in his 21 years in power (which the Marcoses deny). With boxer-turned senator Manny Pacquiao polling in the single digits, the anti-Duterte and anti-Marcos opposition has pinned all its hopes on VP Leni Robredo, who beat Marcos in the 2016 Veep contest but at the moment is a long shot.
Kenya (August). Although President Uhuru Kenyatta cannot run for a third term, he will loom large over the 2022 election. Last May, the country's top court junked Kenyatta's planned constitutional referendum in order to make Kenyan politics less tribal in exchange for more executive power. The verdict was a big win for William Ruto, Kenyatta's deputy and current presidential frontrunner.
Ruto — the first candidate not from a political family with a shot at winning the top job — is leading the polls over Raila Odinga, the scion of a prominent dynasty and Kenyatta’s former enemy turned ally. Promising to fight both wealth inequality and political dynasties, the president’s number two styles himself as a "hustler" to appeal to the three-quarters of Kenyans aged between 18 and 35. But he needs to get young people to actually show up at the ballot box, and so far the ongoing registration drive isn’t going well.A woman holds a placard during a protest following the vice presidential bid of Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, for the 2022 national elections, at the Commission of Human Rights, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, November 14, 2021.
Philippine presidential election: “All in the family”
Philippine elections have always been, Filipinos will candidly admit, a bit of a circus. Come campaign season, politicians fan out across the country, showing off their best tricks to lure voters into giving them their support.
So, what does it take to get elected president? Not coherent programs to cut widespread poverty and rampant corruption. Everyone knows those promises will surely not be kept.
The holy grail of Philippine politics is name recognition. Yet it's not enough to simply be famous. The golden ticket is to belong to a well-known political family.
Even better, join forces with another powerful dynasty — which is exactly what the two biggest names in Philippine politics today have done to win the May 2022 presidential election.
One half of that duo is Ferdinand Marcos Jr. If that name rings a bell it's because he's the son of the late dictator who ruled the Philippines with an iron fist for 21 years. The elder Marcos and his famously shoe-obsessed wife Imelda are believed to have plundered as much as $10 billion from the state's coffers before they were chased out of office — and the country — by the "People Power" revolution of 1986.
Aries Arugay, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines-Diliman, says that Marcos' presidential bid is the culmination of a decades-long quest by his family to regain power after narrowly losing the VP race in 2016.
The other half is none other than VP pick Sara Duterte. If that name rings a bell it's because she's the daughter of Rodrigo, the current president with aspiring dictator vibes of his own.
The Duterte scion has followed her dad's 2016 election playbook to a tee: tease a run for president, turn it down to remain mayor of your hometown, and finally change your mind at the eleventh hour to file your candidacy "reluctantly" because you just can't disappoint your fans. And don't forget to throw in some family drama too.
Right now, the Marcos-Duterte tandem looks like it could easily run away with the election. With the president's daughter by his side, Marcos is now the clear frontrunner, polling at an impressive 47 percent. The couple also faces weak opposition at the moment in the boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao and Leni Robredo, the competent yet low-key vice president.
Part of the twist here is that the Philippine electoral system for president is warped: it's a one-round contest in which whoever gets a plurality wins. Presidents have been elected with barely a quarter of the vote. Candidates often only need to lock in one or two vote-rich regions outside Manila, as Marcos and Duterte both can, to secure victory.
What's more, the Marcos-Duterte campaign is dominating social media — a silver bullet in a nation rife with online disinformation and fake news, where nearly half the population gets their news from Facebook. And guess who Facebook helped win the last time?
Rodrigo Duterte himself, who's become an unexpected thorn in the side of Marcos and the younger Duterte. Until the last minute the term-limited Duterte senior flirted with the idea of running for VP, even against Sara, but ultimately decided to seek a Senate seat right on the buzzer.
Perhaps upset that his daughter ignored his advice to go for the top job, Duterte is now endorsing another candidate instead of his ally Marcos, with his daughter as vice president (the Philippines elects presidents and VPs separately).
Arugay says not having a single ticket is a problem for both Duterte and Marcos. For one thing, it'll split the pro-Duterte vote, not to mention confusing voters. For another, Marcos will have to walk on eggshells with the notoriously thin-skinned president because the Supreme Court, which may hear a disqualification case against Marcos over tax evasion, is packed with Duterte appointees.
What is this all so bad for Philippine democracy? For Arugay, this election is a "new low." It's turned voting for president into an "all in the family" affair because dynasties rather than parties have determined the candidates.
When political parties are created overnight and can implode just as quickly, elections are mere popularity contests. Without sound debate about ideas and policy, the country's many problems will never get fixed.
Unfortunately, as long as those who have the power to reform the Philippine political system are the same politicians who cause the problems in the first place, any hope of progress remains a very long shot.
Rodrigo Duterte, President of the Philippines, and his daughter Sara arrive at the Imperial Palace to attend the enthronement ceremony in Tokyo on October 22, 2019.
What We're Watching: Duterte family drama in the Philippines
Duterte telenovela. The daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will run next year for vice president... while her dad will seek a Senate seat. The term-limited senior Duterte had threatened to run against her, but changed his mind again at the eleventh hour. (The president — who faces legal action over his bloody drug war unless his successor declines to prosecute him — was initially going to run alongside his daughter, but then dropped out because he said most Filipinos were against it.) Meanwhile, although the country elects presidents and VPs separately, Sara Duterte will be on a de-facto ticket with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the former dictator and allied with the Dutertes. Expect more drama during the campaign from the Dutertes and other big names in the Philippines, where politics is deeply personal and parties serve as mere vehicles for individuals with high name recognition. With boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao also running in a very crowded field, buckle up for an epic battle to replace Duterte in May 2022.
Philippine President Duterte attends the ASEAN Plus Three Summit in Singapore.
Will the Philippines’ next president uphold Duterte’s controversial policies?
With the US-China rivalry intensifying in Southeast Asia, the May 2022 presidential contest in the Philippines is shaping up as the most important election in years for the region's balance of power. President Rodrigo Duterte has pivoted the traditionally pro-US country toward China, but the one-term limit means he cannot seek reelection, offering the possibility of a reversal under a new president. Similarly, he/she may rein in a violent anti-drugs campaign that has drawn international condemnation. We talked to Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to get some sense of who Duterte's potential successors are, and how they might approach his controversial legacy.
Do we know yet who's running?
Nearly 100 candidates registered for the 2022 presidential contest ahead of the initial deadline of 8 October, though the vast majority of these will fade away and parties can change their candidates up until 15 November. Currently, there are six credible contenders for the top job: Bongbong Marcos, a former senator and son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos; Isko Moreno, mayor of Manila and a TV/film actor; Senator Manny Pacquiao, the world-famous former boxer; Vice President Leni Robredo, head of the opposition Liberal Party; Senator Ping Lacson; and Senator Bato dela Rosa, the last-minute pick from Duterte's party. The presidential contest is one round, with the prize going to whoever secures the largest share of the popular vote in what is already a crowded field.
Who are the frontrunners?
Marcos is leading the pack among those who've confirmed their participation so far, benefiting from strong support in much of Luzon, the Philippines' main island. He is less popular elsewhere, however, and is generally seen as a divisive figure who evokes memories of his father's brutal regime. And he trails Sara Duterte-Carpio, the president's daughter and mayor of Davao, in rankings of all potential candidates. Moreno and Pacquiao are also both very popular and would pose a stiff challenge for either Duterte-Carpio or Marcos by appealing to a broad range of voters, though their campaign machinery is not (yet) as strong. Nor should Robredo be written off despite her low poll ratings — her decision to enter the contest has been warmly welcomed by many who are eager to turn a page on the Duterte era; she has been one of the president's staunchest and most consistent critics.
Is Duterte-Carpio expected to eventually enter the race?
She continues to disappoint her legion of supporters — who have been using the hashtag #RunSaraRun to build momentum online — by ruling it out. Days before the last week's filing deadline, she registered to run for another term as mayor of Davao her father's old job. However, her denials should not be taken at face value; there is a tradition of Philippine politicians (especially in the Duterte family) not wanting to look overly eager for power, lest it turn off voters. Several parties have presented what are clearly "placeholder" candidates in the hope that Duterte-Carpio will use one of them as a vehicle to get to Malacañang Palace. She has consistently topped the polls of potential presidential candidates, though her lead has narrowed recently while Marcos's numbers have been rising. This Duterte brand may have been tarnished somewhat by the president's perceived mishandling of the pandemic and a recent corruption scandal — or perhaps because her strategy of delaying a decision is backfiring.
Will Duterte's endorsement be important?
While the president's approval ratings have dipped, they remain very high (75 percent in the latest poll), handing a significant advantage to whomever he backs. That does not, however, guarantee victory for his chosen candidate. The election will become much closer if both Duterte-Carpio and Marcos run for the top job, splitting the vote of supporters of the current president and potentially allowing a candidate such as Moreno or Pacquiao to slip through the middle. Similarly, the Duterte machine would be easier to defeat if they and anti-Duterte politicians fall in behind a single candidate. However, it seems Pacquiao, Moreno, Robredo and Lacson are, for now, determined to stay in the race.
Could Duterte still run for vice president?
Though he recently abandoned plans to run for the vice presidency in response to polls showing voters were lukewarm on the idea, he could throw his hat back in the ring if the polling improves, and if his daughter doesn't run. Among many possible permutations, Marcos or Duterte-Carpio could also sign on to another ticket as vice-presidential candidates. A ticket with either Duterte or Duterte-Carpio as running mate would be much more competitive, although the current frontrunner for VP is Tito Sotto, Lacson's running mate and with big name recognition as a former TV personality.
Is the next president likely to uphold Duterte's legacy on China and the anti-drugs campaign?
None of the main contenders would hug China as closely as Duterte has, though changes in policy would be more moderate under Duterte-Carpio, Moreno, and Lacson, while Pacquiao and Robredo would shift foreign policy more dramatically back toward a firm pro-US stance. Either way, the Philippines appears likely to become a geopolitical "swing state" in terms of the US-China battle for influence in the region. As for the anti-drugs crackdown, polls suggest it has been broadly popular in the Philippines thanks to a perceived reduction in crime, but it has always been tainted with concerns about extra-judicial killings. An impending International Criminal Court investigation will bring to light more evidence of human rights violations. Duterte-Carpio, Marcos, and Dela Rosa would likely maintain (perhaps with some nuances) a tough crackdown on drugs; other candidates would likely distance themselves more from Duterte's controversial campaign.
Peter Mumford is practice head for South and Southeast Asia at Eurasia Group.
What We're Watching: Brexit clashes, China stalking Taiwan, strongman's son for Philippine president
Bet you thought Brexit was over… it's not: The EU and UK remain at loggerheads over the future of the Northern Irish border. Brussels says that it won't renegotiate a part of the post-Brexit EU-UK trade deal that includes a symbolic border between the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, and Northern Ireland, part of the UK, threatening to increase tensions along this decades-long flashpoint. Though British PM Boris Johnson agreed in December to a nominal border that would essentially run through the Irish Sea, he has been dragging his feet ever since, and has even threatened in recent weeks to use a loophole to renege on the Northern Ireland clause altogether, which would only further infuriate the Europeans. Indeed, Johnson is facing extreme pressure from all sides: Northern Irish unionists are furious that the British PM ever agreed to a border in the first place, saying it undermines its place within the UK trade system, while Brussels is refusing to budge, saying that renegotiating Brexit would destabilize the whole continent amid ongoing supply chain disruptions. London's ultimatum expires in 10 days.
China stalks Taiwan: To mark China's week-long National Day holiday, Beijing celebrated in style, opting to fly a flurry of military jets over Taiwan. China sent more than 150 aircrafts over four days into the self-governing island's air defense identification zone, its biggest incursion to date. Taipei says that mainland China has been increasingly infringing on its airspace as a show of force. Beijing, for its part, has remained mum, but analysts say that since its successful takeover of the once-autonomous city of Hong Kong, Beijing has become more emboldened to use force to take control of Taiwan, which it sees as part of the People's Republic. Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen said that while she doesn't seek confrontation with China, Taiwan would "do whatever it takes to defend itself" — in other words, it needs Uncle Sam to boost arms sales ASAP. Meanwhile, as an act of support to Taiwan, likely at the behest of the US, the UK sent a warship through the Taiwan Strait on Monday for the first time in over a decade, which the Chinese were surely not happy about.
Dictator's son to run for Philippine president: Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late Philippine strongman, says he'll run for the presidency in the May 2022 election. Marcos, who narrowly lost the vice presidency in 2016, is a deeply divisive figure in the country due to the controversial legacy of his dad, who ruled the country with an iron fist from 1965 to 1986 — including eight years under martial law — and plundered billions of dollars. Still, the younger Marcos is now polling second for president in a crowded field that includes as frontrunners the famous boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao and Isko Moreno, a popular TV host-turned Manila mayor. Sara Duterte, daughter of current President Rodrigo Duterte, and VP Leni Robredo are also expected to throw their hat in the ring in a presidential race that was upended over the weekend when Duterte senior suddenly dropped his plans to run for vice president and announced his retirement. But given the history of Philippine political drama, there could still be more startling developments to come.