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The Autocrat's Curse
Thrilled to announce that GZERO has won the Bronze Telly Award for general history for this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer (which was originally published online May 2, 2022.)
Two months ago, Joe Biden said invading Ukraine would cost Russia and Vladimir Putin dearly.
Since then, not much has gone Putin's way. But can he climb down without a win he can sell back home?
While the Russians focus on the Donbas, the US now seems to think it can make Russia lose — which could trigger an escalation if Putin feels he's out of options.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to political scientist Ivan Krastev, who believes Putin has the autocrat's curse: his back is against the wall because he can't be perceived as weak.
Krastev unpacks many of Putin's mounting problems, including his long-term fear of a shrinking Russian population, his miscalculations about the war, and why his biggest blunder has been to misread Ukrainians.
Bonus: What do people in America's largest Russian-speaking community think about the war? We visited "Little Odessa" in Brooklyn, where most have distanced themselves from Russia, support Ukraine and condemn the war itself — but there are still tensions below the surface.
- Putin past the point of no return - GZERO Media ›
- Putin, Ukraine, and the Rat Story - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: The casualties of the Ukraine war - GZERO Media ›
- Is the war in Ukraine a fight for democracy itself? - GZERO Media ›
- The dangers of Russia losing badly - GZERO Media ›
- Putin has "mummified" Russia: Ivan Krastev On the Putin Effect - GZERO Media ›
- "Patriots" on Broadway: The story of Putin's rise to power - GZERO Media ›
Beginning of Putin's end
On May 9, Vladimir Putin marked the 77th anniversary of Russia's Victory Day in World War II by co-opting its narrative to justify invading Ukraine and paint itself as a victim of Western aggression.
Russia, it seems, hasn't moved on much since 1945 — and still hangs on to perceived outside threats — like Finland and Sweden joining NATO. But if the West goes too far, there's a much bigger risk: World War III.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Michael McFaul, who knows a thing or two about Russia and Putin from his days as the former US ambassador in Moscow.
"There is not a single economic actor in Russia that thinks this is good," notes McFaul, who speaks to Russians frequently. "My sense is that this is a pretty catastrophic failure."
McFaul says that Putin signaled in his nothing-burger speech that Russia is ready to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine in the Donbas region, and explains why that gives Ukraine a stronger hand at the negotiating table. Also, he believes that the US needs to change up its sanctions game and keep quiet about sharing intel with the Ukrainians, and debunks the overwhelming support for the war claimed by the Kremlin.
Also on GZERO World: the West thinks this is a fight for democracy itself, but some pretty big democracies beg to differ.
- Putin punishes Ukraine to avoid looking weak - GZERO Media ›
- Putin, Ukraine, and the Rat Story - GZERO Media ›
- Risks of Russia losing: Putin, Ukraine, and potential for escalation ... ›
- Putin miscalculated on Ukraine, misled by post-Cold War worldview ... ›
- How to avoid World War III - GZERO Media ›
- Putin isn't winning in Ukraine, says US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan - GZERO Media ›
Putin miscalculated on Ukraine, misled by post-Cold War worldview, says Ivan Krastev
For political scientist Ivan Krastev, Vladimir Putin miscalculated in Ukraine — but in a much deeper way than how the invasion is playing out so far.
Why? Krastev offers three explanations in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
First, Putin never accepted that the Soviet Union collapsed because communism did.
Second, he thought the West is in such decline that he'd get away with it.
Third, Putin wants to fix all Russia's problems in his lifetime.
So, how does the Russian leader feel about the war so far? Krastev believes he's definitely not happy with what's going on on the ground, but views himself fighting a longer and more consequential battle with the West.
Watch the GZERO World episode: How Putin created Ukraine’s determination to resist