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FILE PHOTO: Donald Trump dancing during the campaign rally for the Republican primary for the 2024 American presidential election. Manchester (NH), USA, January 20, 2024.
For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024
In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”
That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.
The view from China: The prospect of a friendlier – or at least more transactional – US administration might be good news for cross-strait relations in the short term. There's no point in rocking the boat in a way that might hurt either Trump’s prospects or what trust Beijing has built with the Biden administration over the last year (Joe Biden, after all, could win too).
Beijing isn’t alone in recognizing that a little patience could pay big dividends after November. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel would have carte blanche under Trump 2.0.
“Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas,” he said. “If Trump [were] in power, the US conduct would be completely different.”
The view from the Kremlin is just as rosy. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been arguing for months that Vladimir Putin is waiting for Trump to be re-elected to sue for peace in Ukraine because of how destabilizing another dose of Trump will be to NATO. Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daaldermade a similar argument last week. And Trump did tell European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO” in 2020.
GZERO also has its eye on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and Trump left it in a bad place after their whirlwind romance in 2018 … but who knows what another love letter might spark?
All Russians lose in Putin's war
Vladimir Putin claims overwhelming domestic support for Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.
Is that true?
Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, who talks to Russians almost every day, says what he's hearing is that there no winners inside Russia, where the war has hurt Putin politically.
Even the oligarchs are unhappy: "There is not a single economic actor in Russia [who] thinks this is good."
Why? Before the war, Russians had been richer than at any time in history, McFaul tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Many feel Putin threw it all away, and he'll never get back the credit he'd earned for brining stability to Russia.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Beginning of Putin's end
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Ukraine’s stronger hand and Putin’s missed opportunity
The Russian military is terrorizing local populations in in eastern Ukraine to force President Volodymyr Zelensky to negotiate after Russia has seized territory in the Donbas region.
Will it work? Perhaps, but Ukraine's objectives have changed, US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
A month ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky was willing to talk about Ukrainian neutrality and even the size of the country's military.
Now, McFaul says all of those issues are frozen because the Ukrainians' objectives have changed. They feel like time is on their side, while Putin missed an opportunity to get an agreement that's no longer on the table.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Beginning of Putin's end
Grading the US response to Ukraine
Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, is satisfied overall with how America has responded to Russia's invasion of Ukraine so far — with a couple of caveats.
First, the Biden administration needs to ratchet up sanctions so they don't pile up like parking tickets. And by that he means going after positions, not individuals, as well as offering a way a way to get off the list.
Also, the goal of the sanctions should be to stop the war, not hurt Russia beyond that, McFaul tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Third, the US should definitely share intelligence with Ukraine — but keep it under wraps.
"I'm militantly against talking about it," says McFaul, because it's illegal, doesn't serve the US national security interest, feeds into Putin's grievance narrative, and makes the Ukrainians look weak.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Beginning of Putin's end
Beginning of Putin's end
On May 9, Vladimir Putin marked the 77th anniversary of Russia's Victory Day in World War II by co-opting its narrative to justify invading Ukraine and paint itself as a victim of Western aggression.
Russia, it seems, hasn't moved on much since 1945 — and still hangs on to perceived outside threats — like Finland and Sweden joining NATO. But if the West goes too far, there's a much bigger risk: World War III.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Michael McFaul, who knows a thing or two about Russia and Putin from his days as the former US ambassador in Moscow.
"There is not a single economic actor in Russia that thinks this is good," notes McFaul, who speaks to Russians frequently. "My sense is that this is a pretty catastrophic failure."
McFaul says that Putin signaled in his nothing-burger speech that Russia is ready to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine in the Donbas region, and explains why that gives Ukraine a stronger hand at the negotiating table. Also, he believes that the US needs to change up its sanctions game and keep quiet about sharing intel with the Ukrainians, and debunks the overwhelming support for the war claimed by the Kremlin.
Also on GZERO World: the West thinks this is a fight for democracy itself, but some pretty big democracies beg to differ.
Podcast: The Ukraine war is destroying Putin’s reputation
Listen: Michael McFaul knows a thing or two about Russia and Putin from his days as the former US ambassador in Moscow. As Putin's Victory Day speech illustrated, Russia hasn't moved on much since 1945, McFaul tells Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast. But if the West goes too far, there's a much bigger risk: World War III. McFaul says that Putin signaled in his nothing-burger speech that Russia is ready to gobble up another chunk of Ukraine in the Donbas region, and explains why that gives Ukraine a stronger hand at the negotiating table.
McFaul also explains why the US needs to change up its sanctions game and debunks the overwhelming support for the war claimed by the Kremlin. He says he talks to Russians almost every day, and what he's hearing is that there are no winners inside Russia, where the war has hurt Putin politically. Even the oligarchs are unhappy: "There is not a single economic actor in Russia [who] thinks this is good."
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- Putin couldn't declare victory in Ukraine - so he changed the "war ... ›
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Putin couldn't declare victory in Ukraine - so he changed the "war" objectives
For Michael McFaul, Vladimir Putin's May 9 Victory speech was a "nothing burger."
But there was something in there that signals his intentions in Ukraine, the former US ambassador to Russia tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
McFaul says Putin changed the "phraseology" he's been using for the last two months when referring to the Donbas, where perhaps he now knows he can't prevail.
For the first time, Putin very deliberately talked about the Donbas and other contested parts of Ukraine as being part of Russian territory — and that means Russia will try to annex them.
"That is new. That is something qualitatively different than [...] the way he's been speaking about the war so far."
The Russians Are Proud of Their Operation
The Russians are "proud of their operation". Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia discusses the meddling in the presidential election on GZERO World. "That was a giant party in Moscow."