In his latest "ask ian," Ian Bremmer says the Iran ceasefire has fallen apart, but the region has not yet returned to all-out war.
President Trump is signaling a renewed confrontation with Iran, including a potential blockade of Iranian ports and threats of tolls on ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Ian says the US can apply pressure, but it cannot make the strait safe by declaration alone.
Iran does not need to fully close the strait to create global disruption. It only needs to make shipping dangerous enough that crews do not want to go and insurers are not prepared to cover the risk. That is why oil prices are rising again. Hormuz is not closed, but it is becoming less reliable, and that has consequences for energy, petrochemicals, fertilizer, food, and supply chains.
“Neither side can get to a deal alone,” Ian says, noting that both Washington and Tehran can prevent the other from getting what it wants.
