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Biden steps aside
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take on the back of a staggering announcement that President Biden is no longer standing for reelection. No one thought that President Biden should have stood for reelection after he won the first time. Certainly, nobody believed that he was going to be able to serve a full four years of a second term.
That was becoming increasingly obvious to Biden himself, because he saw what rank and file members of the Democratic Party were saying, how they were pulling. The internal polls that the White House has been getting over the last 48 hours were devastating for Biden, not just a loss, but a landslide that would have led to the Democrats getting wiped out in the House and Senate as well, would probably lead to the Republicans ending the filibuster. Biden ultimately a lot later than a lot of people wanted, but nonetheless ultimately standing down, standing aside, strongly endorsing Kamala Harris, his vice president, for the presidential nomination, and to defeat Trump come November. It is certainly a very long way to go. People were saying it's late. We have 107 days to go left in this election.
That's an eternity in US politics. It is longer than most elections in democracy actually occur for the entire campaign. And so, I mean, if you look at that, look at just how much might happen in a race where Trump and Biden have been historically both very unpopular, both seem to be far too old and unfit to serve as president for another term. Biden, the last numbers we saw in that were 74% of American voters saying that he was unfit to serve for another four years because of his age and increasing frailty. 49% of Americans said that about Trump. Now it's worse for Biden. But if Biden wasn't in the race, for Trump, that would be the worst that we'd ever seen.
And of course, now Biden isn't in the race and Trump is, which means that his age, his frailty, his incoherence when he makes statements, that is suddenly a big issue. It is immediately his largest vulnerability, even after the extraordinary ability of Trump to stand up and put his fist in the air and say, “fight, fight, fight” after an assassination attempt, a huge thing, but suddenly yet another piece of unprecedented history in the US.
This one in favor of the Democrats. I'd like to say this is a good day in US politics in the sense that it shows a level of selflessness from President Biden that he was unwilling ultimately, to put himself personally and his ego ahead of that of the country, and he recognized that this was going to be a disaster. No one had the ability to force him. They pressured him. They embarrassed him. They showed him facts. But ultimately, if Biden decided that he wasn't going to go, no one could have forced him. And of course, that's exactly the case for Trump as well. And, you know, you'll remember that after the 2020 election, when everyone in the Republican Party was saying, “you got to stop this, you got to stand down.” That's absolutely not what Trump was prepared to do. He puts himself above the party, above the country, and has done so consistently. I mean, you know, if you think about, the vice presidents in these cases, the 45th President Trump, threatened the life of his vice president in a last ditch effort to hold on to power, back on January 6th in 2021. The 46th president ended his campaign and strongly endorsed his vice president for the good of the country.
It would be hard to see a more dramatic contrast between two old white men in political power in the United States, one, America’s Nero, holding on for himself no matter what the consequences. The other, America’s Cincinnatus. They are not the same. And as a consequence, the US now has a much more competitive political race. I do believe that over the next month, the Democrats will not just dominate headlines, and they've done that a lot with Biden's unfitness, but also have energy and enthusiasm, and that they have not have and they haven't had for a very long time.
That is certainly an advantage for them. I think that Kamala Harris will do much better if the election nomination process is at least somewhat competitive. Now, I personally don't think that Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, who are, you know, seen to be the most well-known and competitive candidates, potential candidates outside of Kamala Harris. I don't think they'll run, with Biden now having endorsed, fully endorsed his vice president, with Kamala wanting that endorsement, I think that they will wait, they’ll bide their time. They will support Harris, and they'll wait themselves until 2028. But I do think that others will decide to declare, I don't know who they'll be, but I think there will be some. And I think it's interesting that former President Obama did not endorse Harris. He said very strongly positive things about Biden. But he said that the process needs to be open and play out.
And I think that that is not just a knife to Harris. Not at all. I think it is a Obama recognition, that for all of her advantages, she has vulnerability and she will benefit from a process that doesn't look like the political machine has just decided that they're going to anoint her, that there's not going to be a primary process. So there needs to at least be some level of competition, a race that she has to show that she can win. And, you know, conceivably she could implode during that process. And then maybe she isn't the nominee, though I would bet a lot at this point that she is going to be. Where do we go from here?
We're in unprecedented times. As much as this is a better day for US democracy and there haven't been many, it is also true that this is a democracy that remains in crisis. We were less than a second, a fraction of a second away from former President Trump getting killed, getting assassinated, and if that had happened, I have no doubt that we would have had George Floyd-style riots across the country, but with a lot more guns. And I think that there is a lack of appreciation of just how close this country was to a level of political chaos, social instability and violence. And we have three more months plus before this election, where both the Democrats and the Republicans still believe that if the opponent wins, that it is going to be the destruction of democracy.
Biden's standing down did not change Trump's view of that or his supporters view of that. And the Democrats still feel the same way about Trump, and they feel the same way about Trump, even after his near assassination. There's been no unifying of the country on the back of that, and there'll be no unifying of the country on the back of Biden stepping down. But there may well be a lot more unifying of the Democrats, with perhaps a significant number of independents that show up. So very divided, deeply vulnerable over the coming months, we're going to be very busy. But it's nice on a Sunday to have something nice to say.
And I will certainly say that to President Biden, someone that I have criticized a fair amount over the past months, as he has deteriorated for not, doing the right thing in standing down, that you sir have my appreciation. as an American and more importantly, as a citizen of this little planet here, for doing something that the world can take a little bit of inspiration from, and thinking of someone beyond yourself for your legacy, which looks better today than it did yesterday. That's it for me.
And I'll talk to you all real soon.
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden.
The one good reason to watch the Biden-Trump debates
Well, if they want a geriatric cockfight then we, as a nation, shall have one.
After months of circling each other, Joe Biden and Donald Trump abruptly agreed this week to face off in not one, but two televised presidential debates. The first will be in late June, the second in mid-September.
Trump had been taunting low-profile Joe for weeks, holding rallies with an empty podium at his side, accusing the gaffe-prone commander in chief of ducking him.
But Biden suddenly flipped the script, coming out swinging on social media with the Dirty Harry dare (“make my day, pal”) and a “sick burn” about hearing Trump was “available on Wednesdays” — the one weekday when the former president’s hush money criminal trial isn’t in session.
It’s a lot of “come at me, bro” energy from two guys who are each almost as old as Mike Tyson and Jake Paul combined.
But this is 2024, and just about every political exchange is designed for audiences to yell “ohhhhh sh$&!” from the cheap seats. There will, of course, not be audiences at these debates. Biden, knowing that Trump thrives uniquely in a crowd, managed to corner his rival into accepting a debate without them.
Why — WHY — are they even doing this? Biden, down in the polls again, wants a fresh chance to draw a contrast between himself as a self-styled safe — if only occasionally unsteady — pair of hands to defend democracy against the 91-time-indicted, election-denying, abortion-threatening chaos agent at the other podium.
Trump, meanwhile, is looking to roast a very vulnerable Joe over immigration, inflation, and Israel. But even more than that, he’s hoping that either he himself, or the lights and cameras around him, can elicit a signature, campaign-defining Biden-really-is-too-old-for-this type of gaffe from the president. To be fair, it’s not a bad gamble if you’re Trump and you’ve got a free Wednesday to prepare.
Do either of these guys hope to change a large number of minds? Probably not. But with the election likely to come down to a few million voters in a handful of swing states, each sees it as a gig worth taking.
But what about us? Do we really want this debate? Do we need it?
On the one hand, no, absolutely not. We aren’t likely to learn much about either of these men that we don’t already know. This isn’t, say, 2020 when, at the very least, there was some intrigue about seeing them face off directly for the first time against the backdrop of a worldwide pandemic and nationwide protests.
But by now we know who these guys are. We’ve seen enough of each of them. As candidates. As presidents. As the aging, raging, defining poles of political possibility in America today.
In a country where 70% of voters say they wish we had new faces atop the tickets, these debates will simply remind us even more acutely of what we dislike about one candidate or the other.
You’re better off watching grass grow.
But before you go looking for a good lawn, here’s one reason why watching this awful Statler and Waldorf remix might actually be worth it — not only for you, but for America more generally: It will bring us together.
That may sound strange. What about a political cagematch between rivals who despise each other could possibly be unifying?
Well, at a time when Americans are hyperpolarized and deeply worried that the media will be biased, hoodwinked by misinformation, or out of touch with their concerns, a live debate like this will be the only time that we are all in the same room, together, with the two candidates. It will be the only chance we get to see and hear them, unmediated, unspun, at length, and in direct contrast to each other.
This is particularly true of the candidate from the “other side” (whoever that is for you). Be honest, you probably know his views almost exclusively as a patchwork of quips and clips curated by an algorithm that caters to your biases.
To get beyond that, even in some small measure, it’s worth tuning into the smackdown as it’s happening.
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President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Pullman Yards in Atlanta, Georgia, on March 9, 2024.
Biden vs. Trump redux is official
They did it again. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have mustered enough delegates in the primaries to secure their respective party nominations heading into this November’s presidential election — not that anyone expected otherwise.
For Biden, it was his win in Georgia last night that clinched it for the Democrats, while for Trump it was the GOP tally in Washington state. The rematch of 2020 comes despite both men’s unpopularity: Recent polling has Biden’s disapproval rating at 56.5%, while Trump’s unfavorable rating is nearly as high at 52.5%.
What’s next: The matchup that has looked inevitable for months is officially underway, but it’s unclear when, or whether, Biden will face off with his predecessor in debates. Trump has said, “I’m ready to go, ANY TIME, ANY PLACE!” Biden has appeared open to the idea, noting that it “depends on his behavior.”
In the meantime, expect plenty of campaign events and advertisements focused on both men’s ages, abortion, the economy, illegal immigration, and entitlements (more on that below).