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Ukraine dam sabotage: not enough evidence to speculate
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is the destruction of the dam in Ukraine Nord Stream 2 all over again?
We don't know, and I would wait until we have some evidence before we announce who's behind this. It's not going to make much of a difference for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, this is not where the land bridge is most easily broken. So that's probably not an impact. It's also going to affect both a lot of Ukrainians and a lot of Russians on the ground. Maybe the biggest catastrophe is for Russians if they lose all of the access to fresh water for Crimea. So maybe you'd say the Ukrainians had more reason to do it, but if the Russians felt like they were like in desperate shape, it's possible they'd sabotage. I don't have a strong view here and I think we should wait till we have some evidence, kind of like we needed to on Nord Stream.
Does the near-collision between US and China warships signal a new era of competition for dominance in the Asia Pacific?
Well, sure, in the sense that both warships and jet fighters were having more near accidents, both the Americans and Chinese trying to convince the other side to back down, and that's not about to happen, and that's absent any high level military to military diplomacy, we've got economic coordination happening. A lot more policy meetings there. That's not going to help you if suddenly a couple of ships bang into each other and people die.
What are the wider implications for the LIV-PGA merger?
Well, I think that this is basically complete rehabilitation for Saudi Arabia. They're now in the post Khashoggi era. Just a year ago, less than a year ago, the commissioner of the PGA said that, "Can you imagine golfers having to apologize for what league they're a member of?" Well, obviously he's not feeling that way anymore. This is the Chinese doing a deal between the Saudis and the Iranians, the American president traveling over there. I would say that from a perspective of the global economy, the Saudis have, at this point, completely rehabilitated their brand. How people feel about that is going to be different depending on who you talk to. But certainly this is a very, very big move for the KSA and a lot of money speaks very loudly.
The inaugural LIV Golf Invitational
The messy geopolitics of … golf
After years of legal wrangling in the golfing world, the decades-old PGA Tour is merging with LIV Golf, a breakaway league backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund that’s overseen by de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Under the deal, which also involves PGA’s European branch DP World Tours, the two operations will combine under one company (though officials said in a statement that this is not a merger, likely to create the impression that this is a deal between equals).
What is LIV? In recent years, the Saudis lured golf players with shorter tournaments and lucrative contracts that guaranteed their salaries regardless of performance, creating a large schism in the golfing world. The deal comes after a year of lawsuits over LIV continuing to poach PGA’s golfers, including its star player Phil Mickelson, which the PGA responded to by banning its players from participating in its competitor’s events.
Critics of LIV – and there are many – see the competition as a vehicle for Saudi “sportwashing” by allowing MBS to launder his reputation as a human rights abuser. But MBS claims that LIV is yet another cultural program – along with courting music festivals, lifting bans on cinemas, and even constructing a ski resort – aimed at drawing wealthy westerners and diversifying the Saudi economy away from fossil fuels.
Many see this as an attempt by the Saudis to seize control of a nostalgic American sport. But one person who likes it a lot is former President Donald Trump, who has hosted LIV events at his private estates. On Tuesday, Trump called it a “big, beautiful, and glamorous deal.”