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Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting in Moscow.
Is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at risk of attack?
Kyiv has warned of an impending Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southeast Ukraine, raising fresh fears of a nuclear disaster in a region all too familiar with the risks of nuclear calamity (Zaporizhzhia is just 325 miles south of Chernobyl).
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in recent days that Moscow had planted explosive devices on the roof of the Zaporizhzhia plant, though that has not been confirmed by the UN’s nuclear watchdog, which has asked for expanded access to the facility.
Throwing a wrench in the works, Russia, which controls the plant, claims that it’s Ukraine that plans to attack it while blaming the Kremlin – a harder-to-believe move as it would wreak havoc on Ukrainian cities.
This comes amid new revelations that in a face-to-face meeting back in March, China’s President Xi Jinping warned Russia’s Vladimir Putin against using tactical nukes in Ukraine.
(For more on China’s perspective on the war, see here and here.)
Indeed, news of Xi’s earlier warning reveals two crucial things. First, that the Chinese aren’t convinced by Putin’s claim, made last October, that it wasn’t in the Kremlin’s interest to use nukes. Second, the leak, which must have come from the Chinese, suggests that Xi is keen to let interested parties – particularly the Europeans – know that he has been consistently telling the Kremlin behind closed doors that throwing tactical weapons into the mix would be a mistake.
This media leak puts Putin in a tricky spot. Even if the Kremlin wants to bomb the Zaporizhzhia plant and make it look like a Ukrainian hit job, it’ll be harder to pull off now given China’s not-so-subtle warning. After all, Moscow is relying on ongoing Chinese imports of Russian oil to keep its economy afloat.
Ukraine dam sabotage: not enough evidence to speculate
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is the destruction of the dam in Ukraine Nord Stream 2 all over again?
We don't know, and I would wait until we have some evidence before we announce who's behind this. It's not going to make much of a difference for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, this is not where the land bridge is most easily broken. So that's probably not an impact. It's also going to affect both a lot of Ukrainians and a lot of Russians on the ground. Maybe the biggest catastrophe is for Russians if they lose all of the access to fresh water for Crimea. So maybe you'd say the Ukrainians had more reason to do it, but if the Russians felt like they were like in desperate shape, it's possible they'd sabotage. I don't have a strong view here and I think we should wait till we have some evidence, kind of like we needed to on Nord Stream.
Does the near-collision between US and China warships signal a new era of competition for dominance in the Asia Pacific?
Well, sure, in the sense that both warships and jet fighters were having more near accidents, both the Americans and Chinese trying to convince the other side to back down, and that's not about to happen, and that's absent any high level military to military diplomacy, we've got economic coordination happening. A lot more policy meetings there. That's not going to help you if suddenly a couple of ships bang into each other and people die.
What are the wider implications for the LIV-PGA merger?
Well, I think that this is basically complete rehabilitation for Saudi Arabia. They're now in the post Khashoggi era. Just a year ago, less than a year ago, the commissioner of the PGA said that, "Can you imagine golfers having to apologize for what league they're a member of?" Well, obviously he's not feeling that way anymore. This is the Chinese doing a deal between the Saudis and the Iranians, the American president traveling over there. I would say that from a perspective of the global economy, the Saudis have, at this point, completely rehabilitated their brand. How people feel about that is going to be different depending on who you talk to. But certainly this is a very, very big move for the KSA and a lot of money speaks very loudly.
A general view of the Nova Kakhovka dam that was breached in Kherson region.
Dam disaster in southern Ukraine
A major dam in the Russian-controlled region of Nova Kakhovka in southeast Ukraine suffered a massive breach Tuesday, putting at least 16,000 people at risk of severe flooding on the Ukrainian west bank of the Dnipro River. Kyiv blamed Russian shelling for the dam breach, but the Kremlin, unsurprisingly, said it was the Ukrainians.
This is a big deal. The barrier that was hit maintains a crucial reservoir that supplies drinking water and water for Ukraine’s robust agriculture sector. Crucially, the body of water now flooding the region is also drawn from to cool the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe.
The UN’s nuclear watchdog said that lack of cooling water at Zaporizhzhia could frustrate the emergency diesel generators set up to prevent Ukraine from descending into darkness, though the group said that, at least for now, the situation appears to be under control at the plant.
Evacuations of residents in Ukrainian-held territory impacted by the floods have begun, but as water continues to gush, it could be a race against the clock.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant at risk of disaster, says top nuclear watchdog
Weeks ago, the head of the top global nuclear watchdog visited the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. He saw two big holes on the roof caused by high-caliber ammo that could have impacted the fuel.
On GZERO World, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi gives Ian Bremmer a first-hand account of the precarious situation there — and how close we came to "dramatic" consequences.
For Grossi, a major problem right now is that both the Russians and the Ukrainians consider the facility as part of the battlefield. He doesn't care who's doing the shelling now, whether it's Russians or Ukrainians, because his mission is to prevent disasters.
Although neither Moscow nor Kyiv have agreed to his safe zone, Grossi thinks he's getting through to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
They don't have to listen to each other, he clarifies, as long as they listen to him on protecting Zaporizhzhia.
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