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2023's biggest winners and losers in global politics
THE WINNERS
Putin
To be fair, things aren’t great for Vladimir Putin – NATO is still stronger, and his economy is weaker than it’d be if he hadn’t invaded Ukraine. But from a low bar, 2023 was a clear winner for the Russian strongman. Ukraine’s vaunted counteroffensive failed to impress, Western attempts to cap the price of Russian oil faltered, and even an insurrection by his warlord-in-chief only seemed to make him stronger. Putin heads into 2024 happily watching the US Congress squabble over further aid for Ukraine, and who knows, next Christmas might just come early for the Kremlin if Donald Trump can win the US election in November.
Trump
Speaking of which, at the top of this year, the twice-impeached Teflon Don looked like he’d be getting fitted for a prison jumpsuit rather than filing campaign papers. But the bevy of state and federal legal cases against him – some of which were hard for non-lawyers to make sense of – only fired up his base. As a result, he’s not only miles ahead of any GOP challengers for the 2024 nomination, some polls also show him outright leading Joe Biden, who has suffered with voters because of perceptions of his age, inflation, a migration crisis at the southern border, and his controversial handling of the Gaza war.
India
This year, India eclipsed China as the world’s most populous country, defended its title as the fastest-growing major economy, and even landed a spacecraft on the moon. At the same time, PM Narendra Modi used his country’s 2023 presidency of the G20 and his deepening ties with the US to position himself as a vitally important diplomatic bridge-builder between the wealthy G7 countries and the developing nations of the so-called Global South. Popular at home, increasingly influential abroad, and with a flag on the moon to boot, Modi – who faces elections in 2024 – has guided his country to a winner of a year.
Nicolás Maduro
It was a feliz 2023 indeed for the strongman of Caracas. Most of the world quietly stopped supporting his erstwhile rival Juan Guaidó (remember him?), and rising global oil prices forced Washington to rethink its financial stranglehold on Caracas, offering oil sanctions relief in exchange only for some spotty promises that Maduro will hold a free and fair presidential election next year (fat chance.) By the end of 2023, an emboldened Maduro was even feeling frisky enough to threaten to invade his neighbor Guyana.
People willing to play Golf in Saudi Arabia
At first, it seemed inconceivable. Surely the whispers about Saudi Arabia offering golfers hundred-million-dollar contracts to defect to the desert were just fairway gossip, right? But Riyadh made it real when the Saudi-backed upstart LIV Golf absorbed the 107-year-old PGA Golf Tour in June. Critics said the Saudis were just “sportswashing” away an awful human rights record, but supporters said it was time to bust the PGA’s stuffy old monopoly. Meanwhile, the greens look even greener as prize money grows, and even the last-place finishers in LIV tournaments can take home $120,000!
THE LOSERS
AI Cassandras
In March, Elon Musk and a group of artificial intelligence leaders published an open letter warning that AI systems posed “profound risks to society and humanity” and called for a “public and verifiable” six-month pause in “the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.”
It didn’t happen. Increasingly complex and powerful AI systems may indeed pose existential dangers for the human race (alongside their tremendous benefits), but a global pause in any form of technological progress – let alone one this pervasive, powerful, or flat-out entertaining – is impossible to enforce. For the Ancient Greeks, it was Cassandra’s fate to be ignored. But wasn’t it also her destiny to be correct? 2024 will be a huge year for AI.
Benjamin Netanyahu
The wily rightwinger returned to power in Israel late 2022 despite his ongoing legal troubles, but it’s been downhill since. All summer, he faced massive protests over his plan to weaken Israel’s courts. Then, the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust occurred on his watch, prompting fierce domestic criticism of the failures of intelligence and strategy that enabled Hamas to attack on Oct. 7. Israeli society broadly supports Bibi’s stated aims of defanging Hamas and bringing home the hostages (two goals that may in fact be in conflict), but a majority of Israelis still want him to resign.
Migrants on the move
This year the political winds began to shift swiftly against migrants and asylum seekers seeking new lives in the world’s leading economies. In the EU, the number of migrants neared levels not seen since the Syrian refugee crisis in 2016, boosting anti-immigrant politicians and forcing the EU to tighten asylum rules in a long-debated migration policy reform. Meanwhile, in the US, record numbers of undocumented migrants crossed the southern border, empowering Republicans in Congress to hold up funding for Ukraine for tighter border policies. Expect tough talk on migration to play well in the EU Parliament elections next June and the US presidential election in November.
Imran Khan
The hugely popular former Pakistani Prime Minister – who was ousted in a no-confidence vote in 2022 – went from looking like he might sweep back to power in elections this year to being locked up in prison, forced to use an AI replica to get his message out. He was imprisoned in August on corruption charges that he and his followers say are bogus, and the elections that were supposed to return him to power were postponed until next year. His legal troubles may keep him off the ballot entirely. Still, he remains an immensely potent force in Pakistani politics, making a 2024 comeback impossible to rule out.
People who opposed coups in Africa
On the heels of coups last year in Mali and Burkina Faso, this year saw governments deposed in both Niger and Gabon. Niger’s democratically-elected government was overthrown by soldiers from the presidential guard in July. Similarly, Gabon military officers seized power in August, unseating the longtime president shortly after he was declared the winner of a contested election. The recent coups come amid a larger trend of increasingly frequent coups in the region – nine over the past three years – which have harmed economic well-being and raised concerns about regional security.
The very biggest losers: Anyone who didn’t subscribe to the GZERO Daily Newsletter
A no-brainer right here. Anyone who wasn’t getting the Daily in 2023 lost out on the best daily dose of global politics that’s out there – delivered right to your inbox with insight, kindness, and humor. The good news is you can still subscribe – sign up here, and you’ll already be a 2024 winner before the year has even begun!
Afghanistan’s cricketers inspire nation with World Cup dream
The streets of Kabul erupted in joy Monday night as Afghans celebrated their national team’s massive upset victory against Pakistan in the Cricket World Cup. It’s a brief moment of elation amid the crushing crises that have immiserated millions since the US withdrawal.
The stunning eight-wicket win against one of the sport’s most celebrated sides put Afghanistan in a four-way tie for a knockout stage berth. They face an uphill climb for a shot at the trophy, though: The mighty South African and Australian teams are sure to put Afghan bowlers and batters through their paces, and they’ll have to beat both Sri Lanka and the Netherlands as well. If they manage to pull it off, waiting in the knockout stages is thus-far undefeated India, playing at home to roaring crowds.
Intimidating, but cricket is a game that rewards resilience, a trait Afghans have shown they possess in spades over the trials of the last half-century. Many members of the Afghanistan Cricket Board fled the country after the Taliban takeover, and the team has since played home games in the United Arab Emirates and India.
Daily life for those back home teeters on the knife’s edge: The World Food Program is urgently calling for $400 million to keep the country fed through winter as the families that can afford food report spending 91% of their incomes to buy it. Women are shut out of public life so totally that 90% of the victims of recent earthquakes near Herat were women and children, stuck indoors during the day.
That’s just a taste of the pressure the Afghan players will feel to bring a little joy and hope into the darkness when they take on Sri Lanka next week. If this sounds like must-see TV to you, read this cricket explainer for Americans, brew up some coffee, and we’ll see you at 4:30 a.m. on Monday.The Graphic Truth: The NHL is no longer dominated by Canadians
Tuesday was the happiest day of the year for many Canadians: NHL opening night! Canadian fans may notice, however, that there are fewer and fewer Canadian players – part of an ongoing trend. In fact, the last time more than half the league hailed from Canada was 10 years ago, as ever-greater contingents from the US and Europe filled NHL rosters.
It’s a far cry from the early days of the league when the NHL was an all-Canadian affair. Nearly a century ago, in 1924, the Boston Bruins joined the NHL as the first American team. Even then, the number of Americans was tiny – less than 5% for most of the 1940s and 50s – and Europeans hardly even registered.
That all started to change in 1967 when the NHL added six new American teams. It opened slots for more American players, and a trickle of talent from Sweden, Finland, and later Czechoslovakia found its way to the New World as well.
But the biggest changes came after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Long Canada’s fiercest rival at Olympic-level hockey, the fall of the Iron Curtain coincided with a major influx of Russian and other former Soviet players.
But as our graphic above shows, these days the share of European players is falling, and Americans are the fastest-growing demographic in the league.
The messy geopolitics of … golf
After years of legal wrangling in the golfing world, the decades-old PGA Tour is merging with LIV Golf, a breakaway league backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund that’s overseen by de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Under the deal, which also involves PGA’s European branch DP World Tours, the two operations will combine under one company (though officials said in a statement that this is not a merger, likely to create the impression that this is a deal between equals).
What is LIV? In recent years, the Saudis lured golf players with shorter tournaments and lucrative contracts that guaranteed their salaries regardless of performance, creating a large schism in the golfing world. The deal comes after a year of lawsuits over LIV continuing to poach PGA’s golfers, including its star player Phil Mickelson, which the PGA responded to by banning its players from participating in its competitor’s events.
Critics of LIV – and there are many – see the competition as a vehicle for Saudi “sportwashing” by allowing MBS to launder his reputation as a human rights abuser. But MBS claims that LIV is yet another cultural program – along with courting music festivals, lifting bans on cinemas, and even constructing a ski resort – aimed at drawing wealthy westerners and diversifying the Saudi economy away from fossil fuels.
Many see this as an attempt by the Saudis to seize control of a nostalgic American sport. But one person who likes it a lot is former President Donald Trump, who has hosted LIV events at his private estates. On Tuesday, Trump called it a “big, beautiful, and glamorous deal.”
What’s it worth to crush it at the World Cup?
Whether or not underdog Morocco beats France in the World Cup semifinals on Wednesday, one thing is sure: Becoming the first African or Arab nation to get this far in the biggest sporting event on the planet stands to get Morocco more than on-field glory in Qatar.
The Atlas Lions probably didn't expect to have such an amazing run, but their overperformance is no coincidence. It’s the fruit of decades of heavy investment by the kingdom in developing its players as part of Morocco’s broader sports diplomacy.
Hold up. What is sports diplomacy? It’s “when the acts of diplomacy — communication, representation, and negotiation — intersect with the sports world, whether it's in the arena or outside of it," says Lindsay Sarah Krasnoff, who knows a thing or two about sports diplomacy because she teaches it at NYU.
It can be formal, when carried out by governments or by an athlete representing a country, or informal — like the privately-run NBA’s push to make basketball a global game. But the objective is always the same: to get your country or sport noticed so you can "sell" it to the world.
Although success in sports ≠ success in politics, it does boost a national brand. A good example is Croatia, a country of less than 4 million that's only been independent for 30 years. Four years ago, it’s often said that France won the World Cup but Croatia won the hearts of fans around the world by making it all the way to the final of the tournament in Russia.
Its fairytale run put Croatia on everyone’s radar. According to one study, during the 2018 tournament visits to the tourism website soared by 250% — a big deal for a nation that makes 20% of its GDP from foreign visitors.
Symbolism matters, too. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Croatia's president at the time, went all in on showing her support for the national team in Russia. She won global praise for traveling in economy class with fans, gifting world leaders with customized jerseys, and braving a downpour to comfort the players after losing to France in Moscow. The president made her country look cool — exactly what you want to promote foreign investment and tourism.
(Unfortunately for Grabar-Kitarović, she became more famous abroad than popular with Croatian voters, narrowly losing re-election in 2020.)
Morocco is the Croatia of 2022. "It's fair to say there will be a marginal soft power benefit for Morocco. Their winning streak has generated a lot of excitement," says Eurasia Group analyst Sofia Meranto. "The Arab world and African spectators are united in backing them, and leaders across the region were quick to express their joy at the team making the semifinals. Many other fans now also see the Atlas Lions as the favored underdog."
The government is eager to cash in on the team's success to get the most bang for its sports diplomacy buck. A clear sign is the slick video from the Moroccan tourism board dominating halftime TV ads during the tournament across Europe.
This is a unique opportunity for Morocco to showcase itself to tourists. Before COVID, the country welcomed almost 20 million of them, with tourism accounting for more than 10% of GDP and 17% of the Moroccan workforce. The sector has recovered, but only at 80% of pre-pandemic levels — so Morocco would certainly appreciate a World Cup bump to get its tourism groove back ... and maybe even further develop its cash cow.
"It's great to make an imprint, but you want to do more than just enter the history books," Krasnoff explains. "You want to sustain that in order to get the maximum mileage out of your investment."
But investing in sports diplomacy can also backfire. Over a decade ago, Qatar not only spent big to secure the right to host the World Cup but also launched BeIN, a global sports channel under the Al-Jazeera network, and purchased French soccer club PSG.
Since then, the Qataris have gotten blowback over the alleged bribes involved in their bid as well as their dodgy human rights record. BeIN has lost the rights to air many top competitions, and traditional European fans have soured on PSG for being nouveau riche. Money might lure mega-stars like Leo Messi to Paris, but it won’t buy the respect of romantics who just love the Beautiful Game.
So, who'll win the sports diplomacy World Cup in 2022? The stakes are very different for the host country and Morocco.
Off the pitch, uber-rich and regional soft power heavyweight Qatar can claim credit for organizing the World Cup that featured the best-ever run for an Arab team. It’s too soon to say whether the tournament put a dent in the country’s global standing or rather delivered precisely what the Qataris hoped for: lots of attention and future partnerships.
But on the pitch, less affluent and influential Morocco has captured the imagination of Arab and non-Arab fans alike — with none of Qatar’s political baggage.
Aaron Rodgers takes "Cheesehead" literally
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Happy start to your week. I'm going to talk about something completely different today, NFL football. Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay, lost to the inferior Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, 13-7. And do you know why? It's because their star quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, wasn't playing. He has COVID. And he was asked before whether he was vaccinated, he said, "yes".
Here's the video: "Are you vaccinated and what's your stance on vaccinations?" "Yes, I have been immunized."
Turns out he wasn't vaccinated. Now that's his right but he did not adhere to the required protocols for unvaccinated NFL players because he's a weasel. Now Aaron is saying, he's being demonized by the woke mob. He's done his research. He's listened to Joe Rogan. He took Ivermectin and a homeopathic immunization protocol, whatever the hell that is. And he's allergic to an ingredient in mRNA vaccines, which of course doesn't include J&J, which he doesn't talk about. No reason for that but nonetheless, he even sent 500 pages of research that he did to the NFL.
Stop this. Stop. I mean good Lord people, tell you what? Here I actually sent, I did my research today on the NFL, the X's and O's of football. Right here, five hundred pages of my research on football strategy. I sent today to the Green Bay Packers management. I printed it out for you, so you'd see it. Now, I assume that they're going to throw it away, which is exactly what you do when somebody that knows literally nothing about a topic like me on football or Aaron Rodgers on COVID. That's your response. I mean dammit Aaron, "Cheesehead" is supposed to be an aphorism. It's not meant to be taken literally and I know we don't really want to punish Aaron Rodgers. He's a superstar. I mean it's not like he illegally deflated footballs like Tom Brady and he's a white quarterback. This isn't calling Colin Kaepernick we're talking about. We don't really want to do anything.
And by the way, the Pack could go all the way this year. So, we need him back on the field. I get it. But when it comes to the pandemic, where the United States today is the lowest vaccination rate of all of the G7 countries, even though we created the best vaccines and we secured them. We bought them faster than any other country in the world. And you know why? It's because there are people that think that Aaron Rodgers is more knowledgeable than the doctors and the scientists. And so to you, Aaron Rodgers. I want to say that the Kansas City Chiefs salute you and the rest of the country would like you to shut up and grow a pair.
Thank you and I'll be with you real soon.Would athletes be exempt from a Beijing 2022 Olympics boycott?
Will Western nations boycott next year's Beijing Winter Olympics over China's human rights abuses in Xinjiang? Probably not, says the International Olympic Committee's Dick Pound. But some countries, he anticipates, may opt to only send their athletes — like his native Canada, which has a lot of diplomatic issues with the Chinese. Pound, a former Olympian athlete himself, spoke in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: Politics, protest & the Olympics: the IOC's Dick Pound
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Politics, protest & the Olympics: the IOC’s Dick Pound
With COVID rates rising globally, this year's Olympics faced some major hurdles. But the pandemic was only part of the picture. The Tokyo Games played out against a backdrop of mounting global tension surrounding gender equality, racism and human rights, leaving many people to examine the place of politics on the playing field and podium. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer looks at the long history of protest at the Games with Dick Pound, the longest serving member of the International Olympic Committee and a former Olympic athlete himself. Plus: the US Women's National Soccer Team is the most decorated team in the sport, but are they paid as much as their male counterparts? A look at what equal pay for equal play means.