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Graph of poll closures and voter ID laws in US states
Graphic Truth: The great poll closure
In 2013, the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act in the case Shelby v. Holder, fundamentally transforming voting in the US.
39,844 polling places have closed down in the years since, primarily in communities of color. Fewer places to vote means it is harder, and sometimes impossible, for voters of color, with disabilities, or low incomes to vote.
The Shelby decision: In 13 states with a history of racial discrimination, the Voting Rights Act required that any changes to election administration be reviewed to ensure they did not disadvantage minority voters. The Shelby decision took away this oversight.
The effects were immediate. Within 24 hours Texas, Mississippi, and Alabama implemented voting laws that had been previously ruled discriminatory.
Voter ID laws:Studies have found that strict photo ID requirements to vote depress turnout and disproportionately harm voters of color.
In Kansas, over 63,000 people were blocked from registering to vote after the state implemented its ID law, most of whom were eligible voters. In Georgia, an "exact match" law resulted in over 51,000 people being flagged, 80% of whom were Black, Latino, or Asian. Under the law, discrepancies like having “Tom” on a voter registration form, but “Thomas” driver’s license would be grounds for voter status to be suspended.
Poll closures: Without federal oversight, polls have been closed in communities of color en masse.
In Arizona's largest county, Maricopa – where four in ten residents are people of color – polling places were reduced by 70% after Shelby, leading to voters having to wait up to five hours in 2016.
In the absence of VRA oversight, communities of color who fear they are being disenfranchised have limited legal recourse.
Lessons from US midterm primaries in Georgia, Texas, and Alabama
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, discusses Tuesday's primaries.
What happened in Tuesday's primaries?
Several states held primary elections on Tuesday of this week with the most interesting elections in Georgia, Texas, and Alabama. In Georgia, two incumbent Republicans who were instrumental in certifying the results of President Joe Biden's victory in 2020 won the nomination for governor and secretary of state against two Trump-backed opponents. The sitting governor who Trump had been targeting for months over his role in the 2020 election won by over 50 points, a sign that while Republican voters still love Donald Trump, his hold over the party is not absolute. This is going to create an opening for challengers in the 2024 presidential election cycle.
In Alabama, a primary for who will take the seat of retiring Senator Richard Shelby is going to a runoff between Shelby's chosen replacement, his former chief of staff, and a very controversial House member who President Trump had endorsed but then unendorsed when he was thought to be too weak a candidate. He now has a shot at the nomination with a runoff election in June and if he wins, he will be one of the first full throated deniers of Joe Biden's election results to serve in the United States Senate.
In Texas, the most conservative house Democrat, who is a bete noir of progressive activists, again held off a challenge from a progressive activist running to his left. The incumbent had been endorsed by House leadership while his challenger had been endorsed by national progressives like Bernie Sanders. But she was unable to unseat the incumbent in a very Hispanic district. Elsewhere in Texas, a son of the Bush political dynasty lost his race for attorney general to the sitting attorney general, who has recently struggled with ethical problems.
Finally, one of the biggest stories of the night was turnout in Georgia, which broke previous records for midterm primaries, despite worries that had been pushed by Democrats about a new election law that they claim would suppress minority votes. We'll never know the counterfactual, how many people might have voted in the absence of this new law but the fact that the turnout was so high will take some of the political sting over accusations of voter suppression for a lot of new Republican laws that had passed and which several American corporations have reacted to very strongly in the wake of the 2020 election controversy.
Biden’s promise to name a Black woman to SCOTUS isn’t unprecedented
US President Joe Biden has gotten pushback from some Republicans for honoring his campaign pledge to nominate a Black woman to replace outgoing Justice Breyer on the Supreme Court.
But for Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Clarence Page, how is that different from when Ronald Reagan promised to pick the court's first woman in Sandra Day O'Connor?
"Biden isn't saying that just being black is enough, or just being a woman is enough. I think they've got to be qualified first," he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Page believes the three names that have come forth on the president's shortlist are all qualified. It's too bad, he says, that they can be stigmatized by those who think they will get the job because of their race.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Black voter suppression in 2022
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Critical race theory and Black voting rights
Did conservative backlash against critical race theory influence Republican-led US states to pass new voting laws restricting Black Americans' access to the ballot box?
Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Clarence Page thinks so, to a certain extent, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Anything that looks like Black history or that makes white children feel bad, he says, has been inaccurately labeled as critical race theory and presented as a danger, motivating a lot of voters to get rid of it — for instance through voter suppression.
For Page, it's ironic that some in the party of Abraham Lincoln are now fighting those old Civil War battles again as far as democracy is concerned.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Black voter suppression in 2022
The Supreme Court’s role on Black voting rights
When the 1965 Voting Rights Act was passed, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Clarence Page had just finished high school. This legislation changed the lives of Black people in America because Jim Crow laws had virtually prevented Blacks from voting in the South, he said in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
But in 2013, the Supreme Court gutted the law by taking away pre-clearance for states, which had blocked states — especially the former Confederate ones — from changing their voting laws based on racial discrimination.
At the time of the SCOTUS ruling, Chief Justice John Roberts said pre-clearance wasn't needed anymore. But many disagree.
Now, Page says Republicans tend to benefit from making it harder to vote, while Democrats want to make it easier.
"We're getting right at the heart of what democracy is all about, when we're at loggerheads over who should be allowed to vote and, and who shouldn't."
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Black voter suppression in 2022
Black voter suppression in 2022
Until the 1965 Voting Rights Act, Black people in America who wanted to vote faced impossible poll questions and literacy tests. But the Supreme Court gutted the law in 2013, allowing states to pass new voting legislation that progressives say restrict Black access to the ballot box.
The 2022 midterm elections will be the first major test of these laws — which Democrats in Congress are unlikely to be able to stop. How will this all affect Black turnout in November?
On this episode of GZERO World, Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Clarence Page tells Ian Bremmer that if Trump loyalists win in key states, their legislatures — not voters — may end up deciding the next US presidential race.What may happen in 2024 reminds him of 1876, when Page says the end of Reconstruction after the Civil War, along with a disputed presidential election, ushered in the Jim Crow laws that ended his ancestors' ability to vote in Alabama.
What's driving all this? For Page, part of the problem is the grievance narrative around critical race theory, which has made some Americans confused between being a Democrat and being democratic.
Still, he says you can't deny that Republicans want to make it harder to vote, while Democrats try to make it easier. That's a big problem because "we're at loggerheads over who should be allowed to vote and, and who shouldn't."
Page also compares President Biden's pledge to nominate a Black woman to fill Justice Breyer's seat on the Supreme Court to Ronald Reagan's decision to pick Sandra Day O'Connor. And as a bonus, Ian looks back at the history of Black women judges in America.
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Podcast: It’s getting harder for Black Americans to vote, warns journalist Clarence Page
Listen: Voter suppression is a front and center issue. But it’s not always black and white…or red and blue. Black voters continue to turn out in smaller numbers than white voters. How much of that is due to conscious efforts to make voting harder? Pulitzer Prize-winning Chicago Tribune columnist Clarence Page joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast to discuss the past and future of the struggle for Black voting rights in America. Page warns that if Trump loyalists win in key states, their legislatures — not voters — may end up deciding the next US presidential race.
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The history of Black voting rights in America
Until 1965, Black Americans who wanted to vote first faced faces unanswerable poll questions, and later equally tough literacy tests.
The Voting Rights Act banned these and other forms of overt voter suppression. But in 2013, the Supreme Court struck down a key provision of the law, requiring states to get prior federal approval to tweak their voting laws for racial discrimination.
The ruling has allowed dozens of states to pass increasingly restrictive voting laws targeting minority groups with measures like bolstering voter ID, eliminating polling places, and rolling back mail-in voting.
But things aren’t always so black and white, or blue and red, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World. Georgia is now ahead of New York on expanding early voting and no-excuse absentee ballots.
There are many reasons why Black voters turn out less than white Americans, and not all have to do with voter suppression. Still, progressive leaders worry restrictive laws will (further) widen the gap.
The upcoming 2022 midterm elections will be the first major test of these new voting laws. That is, unless Democrats pass new voting rights legislation — but the bill will die on the Senate floor.