Then and Now: Colombia, ISIS, Yemen

Then and Now: Colombia, ISIS, Yemen

Three Months Ago—Colombian rebels started rearming

In June we noted that just two years into the historic peace deal between the Colombian government and the rebels of the FARC, several thousand dissident fighters had opted to take up, or keep, their weapons.

That problem has gotten worse since then.


In late August, a former FARC leader formally called for a return to armed struggle. The current leadership of the FARC, which is now a political party, remains committed to the deal, despite misgivings from Colombian president Ivan Duque that it goes too soft on former rebels accused of grave crimes.

It remains to be seen how many fighters will heed the new call to arms, but the government's slow implementation of the economic and social justice aspects of the deal – in particular measures to speed land reform and provide alternatives to coca cultivation – have left the future of peace in doubt. Ending a war that killed 200,000 and displaced 7 million was one thing: securing the peace is proving to be quite another.

Six Months Ago—ISIS Plots a Resurgence

Six months ago, when American-backed forces pushed ISIS from its last sliver of territory in Syria, we considered how the group might continue to exert influence. Trump hailed a total defeat of the Islamic State, a claim he continues to push. But that doesn't fully match up with what even his own military says. So where do things currently stand?

Territory: The group has mostly been pushed to rural and remote areas. It's taking advantage of the porous frontier between Iraq and Syria, where security services are scarce and fragmented, to mobilize small groups and wage attacks. But the prospect of ISIS reclaiming anything close to its former territory – once the size of Britain– is negligible: ISIS' manpower has been severely reduced as a result of military defeats earlier this year. And American and international forces have kept the remaining fighters away from urban areas.

Recruitment: The Al Hol camp for displaced persons in northeast Syria, which hosts 70,000 people including ISIS family members, has become a breeding ground for terror recruits. Lax security at the tent-camp has allowed ISIS ideology to spread like wildfire, a boon for new enlistments, according to the US military. ISIS affiliates have also taken root in other countries spanning Africa and Asia, presenting a potent threat. Meanwhile, non-Middle East countries have mostly opposed ISIS fighters returning home, but the risk of ISIS inspired terror attacks remains. Many have flowed into other countries in the Middle East, joining sleeper cells.

Takeaway: Despite the collapse of its self-proclaimed caliphate, ISIS' strength and adaptability cannot be overlooked. And don't forget: the Islamic State still has millions of dollars stashed in the region. ISIS lost its territory, but it still has a real and deadly reach.

Nine months ago — Hopes For Yemen Ceasefire Dwindle

Back in December, we wrote about the UN-backed ceasefire in Yemen's port city of Hodeidah, which prompted hopes for broader peace talks between the Iranian-backed Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition, and an end to the war. Both sides agreed to halt fighting in that city so that food aid, the lifeline for 80 percent of Yemenis, could flow in. Deadlines came and went and much of the deal failed to take hold.

Why did the ceasefire fall apart? The ceasefire was supposed to roll out in stages, allowing for al UN takeover. While initially the withdrawal seemed to be on target, both sides reported renewed clashes and continued to wage attacks. While some humanitarian aid managed to get through, there's been a huge drop in the arrival of supplies through the port, with shipping companies citing violence in the city as a major deterrent, according to the UN.

What's happened since? Houthi rebels escalated attacks on Saudi cities – refusing to heed a key demand from Riyadh – raising fears of a spillover deep into the Gulf region. Meanwhile, a widening schism between Saudi-backed government forces and UAE-backed secessionist groups in Southern Yemen – allied against the Houthis but otherwise driven by competing priorities – opened a new front in Yemen's war that threatens to further fragment the fragile state.

What now? According to a recent report from the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration plans to hold direct talks with the Houthi leaders in Oman in an effort to broker a ceasefire. While the US hopes to get the Saudis to participate, it's unclear if they've agreed. Details remain mostly hush hush. Meanwhile, a humanitarian conflict that's already the worst in the world continues to deteriorate.

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In the lead-up to this year's COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, much of the attention has been focused on last summer's wildfires across the US and Europe, and more recently skyrocketing European energy prices. But what about Asia, the world's biggest and most populated region, which also has the highest share of global carbon dioxide emissions that cause global warming? Asia has unique climate risks but also many opportunities for solutions, and whatever happens at COP26, Asian countries led by China and India are primed to lead the world in the struggle to make the planet greener before it's too late. In a live discussion moderated by Shari Friedman, Eurasia Group's Managing Director of Climate and Sustainability, global experts discussed these and other topics during the first of a two-part Sustainability Leaders Summit sponsored by Suntory.

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We're just days away from COP26, the landmark global climate conference that's been dubbed the last chance to get the climate crisis in check. In the lead-up to the event in Glasgow, dozens of countries have released new ambitions to reduce their future carbon footprints. For years, climate activists and experts have called on governments to introduce carbon pricing schemes – either through taxes or emissions-trading schemes. So who's heeded the warning? We take a look at the top ten carbon emitters' share of global emissions and details about their respective national carbon pricing schemes.

Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center, Eurasia Group senior advisor and former MEP, discusses trends in big tech, privacy protection and cyberspace:

Do cryptocurrencies make it harder to enforce foreign policy sanctions?

Well, that is exactly what the Biden administration worries about. As part of growing concerns of whether unregulated currencies undermine a whole host of policies, sanctions and foreign or trade policy should be a priority area. And just like others who wish to evade tracing of their wealth or transactions, the very states or their sanctioned entities should be assumed to resort to all options to evade restrictions while continuing to do business. So having cryptocurrencies undermining the ability to enforce strategic goals logically raises eyebrows in Washington.

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Back in August, when the Taliban took over, we asked whether anyone in the international community would recognize them. Now it looks like things are heading that way.

This week, the Kremlin hosted a summit with the Taliban that was attended by China, India and Pakistan, as well as all five Central Asian Republics.

The domestically-focused US, however, wasn't there. The US continues to maintain that the Taliban can't be trusted. But does it matter? In 2021 does a Taliban-led government even need American recognition to function and thrive?

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For Kevin Rudd, former Australian PM and now CEO of the Asia Society, the science on climate change is pretty much done, so the only unresolved issues are tech and — more importantly — lack of political leadership. He can't think of a single national political leader who can fill the role, and says the only way to get political action on climate is to mobilize public opinion.

Rudd joined for the first of a two-part Sustainability Leaders Summit livestream conversation sponsored by Suntory. Watch here and register here to watch part two Friday 10/22 at 8 am ET.

Taking place on October 21 and 22, the Sustainability Leaders Summit will go beyond preexisting narratives and debate priorities for governments and industries ahead of COP26. Placing the spotlight on Asia's role in the global sustainability agenda, the event will address whether Asian countries and companies can achieve shared sustainability goals, and what is needed to help get them there. The summit will be co-hosted by Tak Niinami, CEO of Suntory Holdings, and Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. We will address three key questions: How can Asian countries, with the help of the private sector, achieve shared Sustainability Goals? Why does this matter? And what are the policy changes needed to bring it about?

Attendance is free and open to the public. Register to attend.

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The minutiae of supply chains makes for boring dinner table talk, but it's increasingly becoming a hot topic of conversation now that packages are taking much longer to arrive in the consumer-oriented US, while prices of goods soar.

With the issue unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, right-wing media have dubbed President Biden the Grinch Who Stole Christmas, conjuring images of sad Christmas trees surrounded by distraught children whose holiday gifts are stuck somewhere in the Pacific Ocean.

It hasn't been a good run for Uncle Joe in recent months. What issues are tripping him up?

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