– By Lindsay Newman
As his second term came into view, US President Donald Trump put the world on notice that the administration many had been preparing for may not be the one it would be getting. Promising a “golden age of America,” Trump laid out an ambitious agenda. “America First” would no longer be an isolationist story, but an aspirational one. As he surveyed the globe – looking for deals and angles – his neighborhood, Europe, and anywhere in the world could face scrutiny.
Early signs were hard to miss. As president-elect, Trump suggested the US should buy Greenland, even though its leaders said it's not for sale. On his first day in office, Trump said the US should “take back” the Panama Canal, and threatened to tariff some of his closest allies and largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico. Beneath it all hovered a major question: What does it mean to be a friend of the United States during the second Trump administration? As the months unfolded, and the US zigzagged in its support for Ukraine, the answer grew more complicated.
Now, with the release of its National Security Strategy, the administration has telegraphed how the US intends to engage with allies, and what it expects from them.
Charting a new course
When it comes to engaging with other countries, the NSS embraces “the nation-state” as the fundamental political unit of this geopolitical landscape. “Sovereignty-sapping” international institutions are out; new, transactional “burden-sharing networks” are in. Allies are expected to shoulder more responsibility, and use economic tools to align incentives.
In this landscape, of sovereign nations acting in alignment, the US will deploy a new “soft power.” Although not defined, the document suggests that soft power replaces a heavy reliance on foreign aid with trade and investment-focused relationships. This is already taking shape – from the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund Agreement and the US’ pledge of £150 billion ($204 billion) in inbound investment for the United Kingdom, partially paused this week over US concerns of a lack of progress by the UK.
The NSS also redraws the global map. The Western Hemisphere finds itself at the top of the list of priorities, complete with the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine. By contrast, other regions, including Europe, have been given second billing.
That shift has landed hard in Europe. The narrative that has settled is that Trump hates Europe, the US is closing shop, and the continent is on its own. This bad news comes at a moment when Europe views itself as being on the frontlines of global trends that will loom large in 2026: populism, migration pressures, untenable fiscal burdens and resource constraints. European leaders will say that they are doing the best they can amidst an adverse set of circumstances, and the existential threat of Russia that has dominated headlines for nearly four years.
Even as it holds up the weight of the world, facing as NATO Secretary Mark Rutte said last week “the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured,” Europe finds itself being chastised: first by Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference and now by the NSS itself. Years from now, European diplomats and government officials will recall where they were when they first heard the phrase “civilizational erasure.” It was a bell that tolled and echoed again and again, the sound of Europe losing its most trusted friend.
A US prescription for Europe
Like many first impressions of the Trump administration, not everything may be as it first seems. The message the US has sent to Europe is not one of abandonment, but an expectation to get with the program. The strategy’s view is that Europe’s problems run deeper than declining GDP share and security risks. According to the NSS, Europe has introduced policies that undermine political liberties and national sovereignty. Open-border migration has put governments under strain. Censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, demographic pressures, and too much regulation have made Europe “unrecognizable.”
Yet each of these conditions should be very familiar, at least to the US audience. Trump is diagnosing Europe with the same “ailments” he claims to be treating at home. Just like the so-called “course correction” the Trump team is administering for the US, Europe needs to correct course, too.
The Trump administration’s prescription for Europe is to be more like the US. Close your borders, defend your national culture, back innovation, and encourage patriotic parties. Do that, the NSS argues, and the US will remain a committed partner – so long as it also advances US national interests. As the documents says plainly: “Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a strong Europe to help us successfully compete.”
The ongoing negotiations over a Ukraine peace plan are a test of how Europe will respond to America’s new posture. As the US looks to achieve an “expeditious cessation” of the conflict and to reestablish regional stability, including with Russia, Europe faces hard choices. Will it demand a central role? Will it accept Trump’s brand of transactionalism over idealism? The US has sent its message. Over to you, Europe.
