Twelve days ago, a protest over Iran’s deteriorating economy began at a market in Tehran, in what were then estimated to be the largest demonstrations in the country since 2022.
Since then, they have spread dramatically. People in over 100 cities and towns across the country have taken to the streets to vent their anger over a plunging Iranian rial and soaring inflation. The unrest has turned violent in places, with demonstrators blocking roads and setting fires in the streets of Tehran. The authorities have responded with a heavy hand. Forty-five people have been killed, including two members of security forces, amid clashes, according to the Norway-based Iran Human Rights NGO, and thousands have been arrested.
“The protests that occurred Thursday night in Tehran is maybe the largest march that city has seen since 2009, since the Green Movement,” said Eurasia Group’s Iran and energy expert Greg Brew, referencing the mass demonstrations that followed what many Iranians saw as a fraudulent presidential election.
In an effort to quell the current protests, the government shut down the internet on Friday, preventing phone calls from reaching the country and causing airlines to cancel flights. The government has offered a proverbial carrot to the public, pledging on Monday to give citizens $7 per month to help offset rising costs, but the move did little to calm anger in the streets.
It’s not just the economy, stupid. “[The protests] are being driven by the economic situation,” said Brew, “but they’re also being driven by broad dissatisfaction with the regime, and growing signs that the regime no longer has any credibility with the broader population.”
That discontent with the regime was clear on Iran’s streets yesterday. Crowds chanted, “Death to the dictator,” a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled since 1989. Some demonstrators have called for the return of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former shah who now lives in the United States. Pahlavi himself urged Iranians yesterday to continue protesting against the current regime.
Why are these protests different? The Islamic Republic has faced several waves of protest since taking power in the late 1970s. But Iran’s problems today are more expansive. US sanctions have battered the economy. A water crisis has prompted President Masoud Pezeshkian to float the idea of relocating the capital from Tehran, saying resource challenges have made the city unlivable. Iran’s influence across the Middle East has dwindled since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel, after counterstrikes weakened Tehran’s proxy groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a key Iranian ally – has also eroded Tehran’s position.
What’s more, Israel exposed Iran’s security vulnerabilities during the 12-day war in June last year. At the same time, the US’s actions in Venezuela have added to uncertainty for all of Washington’s adversaries, and President Donald Trump reiterated his threat of intervention should the Islamic Republic “kill peaceful protesters.”
If the Islamic Republic did collapse, the fallout would reverberate across the Middle East. A power vacuum could emerge to replace Iran as a leading force in the region, and several Iran-backed groups would lose a vital source of support. Some, like the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, would survive, according to Brew, whereas others, particularly the paramilitary and political group Hezbollah that holds sway in Lebanon, have grown dependent on Tehran.
“If the Islamic Republic does in fact collapse, and is replaced by a new government, I think it’s very likely that support for regional proxies diminishes,” said Brew. He added that, even if the regime holds, it may have to pivot, and support for the proxies could still diminish.
Could the regime fall? Brew is skeptical, noting its control over the security force and the government’s united response to the protests. Tehran also has a potential off-ramp: they could accept the US offer for sanctions relief in exchange for giving up uranium enrichment and cutting support for regional proxies. Iran’s foreign minister said late last year that the country was not currently enriching uranium at any site in the country, after US and Israeli attacks on nuclear facilities, but maintains the “right” to enrichment in the future.
“Any sign that a deal is becoming possible would alleviate some of the economic concern, but it could also potentially blow back on the regime, and expose even greater weakness,” said Brew. “Things could go in a number of different directions at this point, so it would behoove us to wait and see what the next few days or weeks bring.”
