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Russian ship in the arctic
Alarm raised over Russian Arctic oil shipments
Russia has begun using tankers designed for southern waters to ship oil to China through icy Arctic waters off its northern shores, which has worrying environmental and security implications, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Russia moved about a dozen tankers through the passage in the last two months and is beginning to use tankers without so-called ice classification — stronger hulls designed for shipping in icy waters. Because of Western sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow is increasing oil exports to China, and the northern route is shorter than the trip through the Suez Canal.
Why is this concerning? Because it appears to herald a new era of Chinese presence in the Arctic – and because a spill in these treacherous northern waters would be disastrous, spreading oil beyond Russian territory.
“I think it’s safe to say that a Russian oil spill in the Arctic would have catastrophic consequences given the fragility and remoteness of the ecosystem, which would hamper containment and clean-up efforts when that oil inevitably spread beyond Russian waters,” says Graeme Thompson, a global macro senior analyst at Eurasia Group.
The closer relationship between Russia and China is opening the door to more Chinese military activity in the Arctic. This has worrying implications, particularly for Canada, which has little capacity to monitor its vast northern waters. Last year, the Canadian military found Chinese monitoring buoys in Canadian waters, but it’s unclear how much activity Canada is able to surveil. A report from the country’s auditor general last year said that Canada has significant gaps in its ability to detect or track ships in the Arctic.
Canada has agreed to spend $4.6 billion over the next decade on upgrades to northern air defenses, but Canada has never spent the kind of money necessary to have a bigger presence in its Arctic waters, meaning this region is its weakest security link.
The thawing of Arctic ice is opening up northern waters to foreign shipping, both civilian and military, which ought to motivate policymakers to wake up to threats from a new frontier. But Canada is not moving to close the gap by boosting its spending to 2% of GDP – the level NATO guidelines recommend for military readiness. In fact, quite the opposite: Ottawa is looking for $1 billion in savings from its current budget.
“I think it’s pretty clear that Canada is largely dependent on the US for defense and surveillance in the far north,” says Thompson. “Although Ottawa is a critical security partner for Washington, its capabilities and capacity – both on the sea and in the air – to contribute to Arctic defense are not what one might expect from a country with such a large territory and coastline north of the Arctic Circle.”
“In some ways, this works fine for both the US and Canada – Washington takes the lead, and Ottawa is happy to let them – although that de facto arrangement could become more fraught as geopolitical competition heats up in the north.”
Scientists ride their snowmobiles near Kronebreen glacier through the arctic landscape in Norway.
Norway takes helm of icy Arctic Council
On Thursday, Norway became the chair of the Arctic Council, the leading forum for intergovernmental cooperation in the region. The transition has been muted, but the stakes are high: It’s taking over from none other than Russia.
As the Arctic heats up as a geopolitical theater (China has called it one of the world’s “new strategic frontiers”), managing it well is top of mind for Arctic states like Canada and the US.
What is the Arctic Council? It was created in the 1990s to facilitate cooperation on issues like sustainable development, environmental preservation, and search and rescue, though notably not on security. The council is made up of the eight Arctic nations (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the US), plus reps from the region’s Indigenous Peoples and observer states like China. Leadership rotates every two years, and Russia was halfway through its term when it invaded Ukraine last year.
Until the invasion, the Council was a solid example of post-Cold War cooperation.
Even after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, it remained a unique space for friends and adversaries alike to find common ground.
Not so these days. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the other Arctic nations froze their Council work with Moscow, leaving a third of the body’s 130 projects on hold.
Icing Russia out could compromise the Council’s viability. Over half of the Arctic’s coastline and almost half its population are Russian. Real progress in fighting climate change and managing a growing international interest in the region with only half the picture? Good luck.
Norway gets that. “Probably, the most important outcome of our time as chair will be that we make sure that the Arctic Council survives," Norway’s Senior Arctic Official Morten Høglund said.
Failure to advance a meaningful agenda for circumpolar affairs and sustain the council’s viability “would be a major blow to multilateral efforts to grapple with issues like climate change, which has an outsized impact on Indigenous peoples in the fast-warming Arctic region,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Graeme Thompson.
Could Norway invite Russia back into the fold? Høglund has pledged to restart communication, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre recently said that “there may come a time to move forward again. And I would warn against … cutting Russia out of the map as if it is no longer there. It is.”
And don’t forget about China. Beijing says it hopes Norway can restore the council’s cooperative work and is vowing to “play a constructive role.”
As it took the helm on Thursday, Norway offered to host a council meeting in 2025. All members would be invited, which means Russia might soon come in from the cold.