COVID is ravaging these countries: How are their leaders doing?

COVID is ravaging these countries: How are their leaders doing?

We're now six months into the worst public health and economic crisis most countries have seen in generations. But how is that affecting politics? We take a look at the leaders of the countries that currently have the five largest death tolls.


#5 UK: 41,000 deaths. At the beginning of the year, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was basking in the biggest Conservative election victory in 33 years, and preparing to play hardball with European Union trade negotiators over post-Brexit ties. Enter: coronavirus. After first downplaying the pandemic and suggesting a laissez-mourir herd immunity approach, he caved to science and imposed lockdowns.

But his dithering produced the worst of both worlds: Europe's highest death toll and its biggest economic downturn. Now EU talks are all but stalled, and no one knows how big the additional economic hit of Brexit will be. Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party is back in the game under popular new leader Sir Keir Starmer.

When current wage support schemes expire this fall, Johnson will have to decide whether to renew them (he doesn't want to) or risk the political fallout of soaring unemployment, particularly in UK regions that were key to his victory. And if there is a second coronavirus wave, can the once invincible-looking Johnson really make it to the next election?

#4 India: 60,000 deaths. From the very start, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi faced a difficult challenge: how to impose lockdowns in a country where a huge informal economy and sprawling urban slums make it impossible for hundreds of millions of Indians to work from home or practice social distancing.

His early move to impose a nationwide lockdown on short notice initially created chaos, but it also showed decisiveness and leadership that helped to keep his approval ratings high. What's more, Modi and his ruling BJP party have controlled the narrative well — both through traditional media outlets and a sophisticated social media game — amid the weakness of the opposition Congress Party.

Still, Modi is facing a huge economic challenge: growth was already slowing before COVID-19, and there's little relief in sight. Keep an eye on some of the state elections coming up for a barometer of how BJP/Modi are faring.

#3 Mexico: 61,000 deaths. When the pandemic hit Mexico, left-wing populist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) worried about the economic impact of lockdowns on the poor, so he told Mexicans that they should just go out to eat. Since then tens of thousands have died of COVID-19, while the economy has suffered a historic triple shock of falling energy prices, evaporating tourism, and lockdowns.

Polls show growing reservations about the government's response, but AMLO's own approval ratings overall have held broadly stable in the low 60s. In part that's because the opposition — the long-governing establishment parties whose monopoly on power he and his Morena party broke — is in disarray and besieged by bombshell corruption investigations.

But the going is about to get tougher for AMLO: the economy will shrink 10 percent this year but, strapped for cash, he's resisted shelling out more money on social programs that help the lower-income Mexicans who are his base. Next year's midterms will be a referendum on AMLO's handling of the virus and the economy.

#2 Brazil: 117,000 deaths. President Jair Bolsonaro ridiculed the disease even as it surged in Brazil. He lost two consecutive health ministers over it, and faced a bombshell obstruction of justice charge. As his polling plummeted and talk of impeachment swirled, he urged protests against Congress and the Supreme Court, stoking fears that a leader so openly nostalgic for the days of dictatorship might try to stage a coup.

But now, stimulus checks have helped his poll numbers to 37 percent, their highest mark on record (at least among those who rate him "excellent" or "good.") To be fair, 37 isn't exactly a bell-ringer, and if the stimulus dries up without the economy turning around, Bolsonaro would be in trouble again. But for now, he has to feel cautiously good about his prospects for re-election in 2022. Bolsonaro has the unwavering commitment of a solid third of Brazilians. In a deeply polarized system, that might be enough.

#1 US: 182,000 deaths. America First wasn't supposed to apply to a pandemic death toll. But despite Donald Trump's erratic, highly politicized, and largely ineffective response his approval ratings have held around 40 percent.

That's in part because so many Americans see the pandemic the way they see everything else: through a partisan or pro/anti-Trump lens. And like his pal Bolsonaro, Trump can always rely on a hardcore 35 percent of the population, along with near total support among Republicans.

That's not a majority of voters, but given the quirks of the US Electoral College, it doesn't need to be. His rival Joe Biden is hammering Trump's mishandling of COVID-19 and the economic collapse it caused, but Trump knows that he's got a chance if November comes down to a few thousand (potentially mailed in) votes in swing states – what could go wrong?

Each month, Microsoft receives about 6,500 complaints from people who've been victims of tech support scams. But it's not just Microsoft's brand that the scammers leverage; fraudsters have pretended to be from a number of other reputable tech companies and service providers. These scams will remain an industry-wide challenge until sufficient people are educated about how they work and how to avoid them.

To measure the scope of this problem globally, Microsoft commissioned YouGov for a new 2021 survey across 16 countries. Results from the 2021 survey reveal that, globally, fewer consumers have been exposed to tech support scams as compared to the 2018 survey. However, those people who continued with the interaction were more likely to have lost money to the scammers than we saw in our previous survey. To read the highlights of the survey, visit Microsoft on the Issues.

Tunisia, the only country that emerged a democracy from the Arab Spring, is now in the middle of its worst political crisis since it got rid of former autocrat Zine El Abidine Ben Ali over a decade ago.

On Sunday, the 64th anniversary of the country's independence from France, President Kais Saied responded to widespread protests over the ailing economy and COVID by firing embattled Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspending parliament for 30 days. Troops have surrounded the legislature, where rival crowds faced off on Monday, with one side chanting in support of the move and the other denouncing it as a coup.

How did we get here, do we even know who's really in charge, and what might come next?

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Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:

As COVID-19 cases rise, are vaccine mandates coming?

Oh, you just want to get me in more trouble. Yeah, some mandates are coming, but they're not national mandates in the United States. In some cases, you're looking at federal and state employees, in some cases you're looking at lots of individual corporations, universities, and such. I mean I've already been to a number of events where vaccines have been mandated in New York. You've got this Excelsior Pass if you want to go to the Brooklyn Nets games, as I certainly do. You show it off and that gets you in with your vaccine. So I think it's really going to be a decentralized process. But clearly, given Delta variant and the number of people that are getting sick and dying because they're not vaccinated, you're going to see moves towards more mandates, as a consequence.

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Castillo takes over in Peru: After almost two months of protests, baseless allegations of fraud from his rival in the runoff election, and even rumblings of a coup, Pedro Castillo will be sworn in as president of Peru on Wednesday. A former rural school-teacher famous for riding on horseback, wearing a cowboy hat and waving a giant pencil to show how much he cares about education, Castillo has big plans to achieve big change. But he won by just a razor-thin margin in a deeply divided country, and Peru's dysfunctional political system will likely hobble his attempts to get major legislation passed. Moreover, despite having moderated his positions, half of the country still sees him as a communist who might turn Peru into another Venezuela. Castillo's most immediate task is dealing with the twin crises of a deadly pandemic and a COVID-fueled economic crisis that has hit poor Peruvians — his base — the hardest.

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13: The two Koreas have restored their communication hotline almost 13 months after Pyongyang abruptly cut it in response to Seoul not doing enough to prevent North Korean defectors from sending propaganda leaflets across the shared border. The hotline was established in 2018 following a historic meeting between North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

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Now that the Tokyo Olympics are finally underway, your Signal crew will be bringing you some intriguing, uplifting, and quirky facts about the Games that have many people on edge.

Today — what's the smallest country (by population) to win a gold medal in a summer Olympics?

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Political division, disinformation and, frankly, stupidity are costing lives. It is not authoritarian to mandate vaccines in America. In fact, there is historical precedent. Making vaccine uptake a requirement will save tens of thousands of lives and maybe many more than that. There really aren't two sides to this argument, there is just the science.

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. Hope you're having a good week. I wanted to kick it off by talking about vaccines. We all know the recent spike in cases and even hospitalizations that we have experienced in this country over the past couple of weeks. It looks like that's going to continue. It is overwhelmingly because of Delta variant. The hospitalizations and deaths are overwhelmingly because too many people are un-vaccinated.

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24-year-old Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate recounts how in 2020 she was cropped out of a photo at Davos of her with other white climate activists (like Greta Thunberg) and what it revealed about how people of color and people in developing countries, like those in Africa, are frequently excluded from the climate conversation.

Watch the episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Predictable disaster and the surprising history of shocks

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