We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Electoral campaign posters are seen ahead of Nigeria's Presidential elections, in Yola, Nigeria, February 23, 2023.
What We're Watching: Nigerians vote, Biden's World Bank pick
Nigeria's presidential election head-scratcher
Nigerians go to the polls Saturday to vote in what is being billed as the most open presidential election in Africa's most populous country since democracy was restored in 1999. That's mostly thanks to buzz about Peter Obi, a third-party candidate who's leading most polls ahead of both Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling party's pick, and opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar. With almost half the electorate undecided, Obi faces tough odds. First, to win outright, he must get the most votes nationwide and at least 25% in at least two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states – but he doesn’t have strong party machinery to turn out voters. Second, if no candidate meets both conditions, the election goes to a runoff between the most-voted for candidate and — here's where it gets complicated — the one who placed second in the highest number of states. Also, keep an eye out for the rollout of machines to verify biometric voter ID to curb fraud. If the devices malfunction or are not widely deployed, expect many Nigerians to consider the election anything but free and fair.
Interested in the Nigerian election? Listen to Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group’s Africa practice, on this GZERO podcast in collaboration with The Center for Global Development podcast.
Biden picks ex-credit card exec to lead World Bank
President Joe Biden will nominate former Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga to replace the outgoing David Malpass as president of the World Bank. (The institution is traditionally led by a US citizen picked by the White House, while a European heads the International Monetary Fund, its sister org.) The selection of Banga is somewhat puzzling since he lacks a specific or public-sector background in climate change. The Biden administration wants the World Bank to focus on the issue, and Banga’s nomination comes just months after Malpass got in a political firestorm over his views on climate science. (He later denied being a climate denier on GZERO World.) Still, Banga has experience managing a multinational corporation and prioritized the climate at Mastercard. Perhaps Biden thinks he can run the World Bank more like, well, a bank, to mobilize private-sector climate finance — cash to help mainly developing nations do things like transition to more green energy.
Ukrainian forces fire howitzers at Russian positions near Makariv.
Watching the war in Ukraine
President Vladimir Putin said Sunday that Moscow will halt its military operation only "if Kyiv stops military operations and carries out well-known Russian demands." This is the same leader whose side twice agreed to and then violated a deal to evacuate civilians from the besieged city of Mariupol. On Monday, Russia said it would offer safe paths out of Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv and Sumy, but some of the routes entail passage to Russia or Belarus, which Ukraine has called "immoral."
Ukraine says more than 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion began, more than 20 times Moscow’s only official death toll released to date. Roughly 1.5 million Ukrainians have already fled to neighboring European countries, raising the stakes for a common EU response to a refugee crisis that will surely worsen.
All eyes on Odessa. With Russian forces now occupying the southern city of Kherson, the Kremlin has its eye on its next big prize: Ukraine’s largest seaport of Odessa. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia will soon start bombing Odessa, a bustling city of 1 million. With Russian soldiers struggling in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, taking Odessa would be a big win for Putin. Controlling it would mean curtailing Ukraine’s access to imports of food and other supplies — and if Russia took control of Mariupol too, it would gain much of Ukraine's seacoast. Occupying Odessa would also put the Russians within striking distance of Transnistria, a breakaway Moldovan republic that could be Putin’s next target after Ukraine.
Diplomatic moves. Over the weekend, various world leaders spoke with Putin to try to negotiate an end to hostilities. French President Emmanuel Macron wants the Russian leader to protect nuclear sites after Friday’s assault on Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Putin to declare a cease-fire. Finally, Israeli PM Naftali Bennett surprised observers by showing up in Moscow for a meeting in the Kremlin, where he offered to mediate as a neutral partner with strong ties to both Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, delegations from both Russia and Ukraine are set to meet on Monday in Belarus for a third round of peace talks.