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Explaining inflation & what's next for the US economy
US inflation is now at a 40-year high. So, what can we do about it?
The Federal Reserve is trying to cool down the overheated economy by raising interest rates. But if the Fed goes too far, the rate hikes could trigger a recession that'll hit low-income Americans hardest.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to economist and University of Chicago professor Austan Goolsbee, who says the recipe to fixing inflation depends on whether you see it as a demand or supply problem.
Goolsbee also shares his thoughts on why some COVID innovations like making masks domestically or WFH were just economic blips, why the Biden administration perhaps put up too much stimulus for the recovery, and why Americans feel glum about the economy yet still have cash in their pockets.
Bonus: find out why people are stealing CATS across America.
The Graphic Truth: Hotspots for digital nomads
The pandemic has enabled some professionals to work remotely from home — or anywhere. Digital nomads wander the world in search of the perfect place to hunker down with their laptops, prompting some countries to offer them special visas. Where should you go if you can work from anywhere?
Getting from the Great Resignation to the Great Return
It’s a job seeker’s market.
Over 47 million Americans voluntarily left their jobs last year, almost 13% more than in 2019. That was before the pandemic, which has upended the relationship between workers and employers as much as it has disrupted all our lives.
It’s not just a US phenomenon. High turnover rates extend across comparable OECD economies. Nearly a quarter of Brits and a third of Australians plan on switching jobs in the next several months.
The picture is somewhat different in the developing world. Hundreds of millions of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic — mostly in the informal economy — still can't find work because COVID obliterated entire industries such as tourism. Chinese companies, meanwhile, are struggling to retain young employees who are fed up with low pay and long hours.
The Great Resignation is thus a global problem, in varying ways, as will be the Great Return. With the omicron scare easing in the West, many companies there have begun trying to figure out how to woo millions of now-remote (or recently resigned) employees back to the office — precisely at a time when it’s gotten harder to find and retain talent.
Here are three ways employers might have success.
The most obvious fix is to raise salaries. That’s already happening for some. US wages grew on average 4.5% last year, the highest annual rate in almost 40 years. But with US inflation currently at 7.5%, that annual bump is actually a pay cut in real terms, and higher salaries won’t entice everyone.
What’s more, upward pressure on salaries is likely to contribute to even higher inflation.
Another option is additional benefits for employees, especially those who feel more productive working from home and see little upside to returning to the office. Many companies have already adopted permanent hybrid schedules, with workers coming in twice a week.
But some CEOs want everyone in the office five days a week. They just don't get it, US organizational psychologist Adam Grant toldGZERO World. Grant argues that worker productivity “is about the purpose and the process that you bring to your job (...) not about the place you happen to be doing it in.”
Apart from going hybrid, governments are increasingly backing experiments such as four-day workweeks to deliver more work-life balance. This approach has already been tested — with varying degrees of success — in Iceland, Spain, and it will soon be trialed in England.
Finally, companies that struggle to find talent where they’re based might opt to find it elsewhere — including overseas. That means more people working remotely from other US states or even abroad, which could have big political implications.
Imagine all those American manufacturing jobs that went to Mexico thanks to NAFTA, or to China after Beijing joined the WTO. This time, though, US labor outsourcing would hit the laptop class — the one that has benefited the most from globalization and a digital-first world.
As Eurasia Group CCO Alex Kazan points out on the Living Beyond Borders podcast, a post-pandemic hiring spree of remote labor from low-income countries could be politically toxic amid the surge of nationalism and protectionism we've seen in places around the world. But if done right, it could also be viewed as an expansion of a flexible gig economy that can spur greater inclusion in a global workforce.
“We're still a long way away from a global labor pool, but certainly the normalization and acceptance of technologies that enable remote work make that a more plausible future,” Kazan says.
Meanwhile, WFH is not going away. If companies in advanced economies want to lure their employees back to the office, most firms will need to reshape workplace culture to embrace remote working and hybrid models.
Lightning round: Adam Grant on fun at work and jargon monoxide
In our GZERO World "Lightning Round," organization psychologist Adam Grant shares his thoughts on how to disconnect from work, what is and isn't fun in the workplace, and why people use work jargon."There's some hilarious research which shows that people use that kind of jargon because they're insecure and they want to sound smart," observes Grant, author of "Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know."
Watch the episode: Adam Grant reimagines work after COVID
“Essential workers” and the inequality of work
Organizational psychologist Adam Grant discusses the "essential workers" who kept the world going throughout the pandemic and didn't get to work from home. According to Grant, the US should be rethinking its policy on essential work. "Where was hazard pay for all the teachers? For all the medical professionals? For all the warehouse workers who put their lives at risk to keep the world running, and to try to keep the economy alive as well?" asked Grant, in an interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch the episode: Adam Grant reimagines work after COVID
Australia's NSW state says work from home is over, but employees still shun office
Occupancy in Sydney's CBD is at 45 per cent, compared to 90 per cent pre-pandemic.
Employees urged to return to the office
Australians are preparing for what will be a strange collective experience - working from the office again.
Professionals in India opting to work from their home towns
Last month, software engineer Nabendu Biswas moved out of India's tech capital, Bengaluru, and returned to his home town, Bhopal, which is among the cleanest cities in the country.