A picture may be worth a thousand votes – or more. The image of Republican nominee Donald Trump’s blood-streaked face, fist raised defiantly beneath a giant American flag, may help him win the election. A young man, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, took aim from a rooftop near a Trump rally in Butler, PA, on Saturday, firing multiple shots before being “neutralized.” He hit the former president’s right ear, killing one spectator and injuring another two. Questions are being raised as to how an armed Crooks could have gotten so close to Trump.
Trump’s vigorous response, meanwhile, has energized his base and further highlighted the contrast between him and the more frail President Joe Biden.
According to William Hill, a UK-based betting company, Trump's odds of winning rose from 8/15 (65.2%) before the shooting to 4/11 (73.3%) after it. And in financial markets, trades betting on his victory are predicted to increase this coming week.
But the shooting could also herald more political violence and social instability, according to Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer. “This is the kind of thing we have seen historically in lots of countries facing instability and frequently does not end well.”
Already, Ohio Sen. and Trump VP hopeful JD Vance has blamed Biden for the attack.
“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” Vance posted on X. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination.”
Biden, for his part, addressed the nation on Sunday to condemn the shooting, and his campaign has ceased its negative campaigns. “No matter how strong our convictions, we must never descend to violence,” he said.
What will this mean for campaign security?
Expect it to be stepped up. Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and Mike Lawler (R-NY) announced Saturday that they would introduce bipartisan legislation providing Trump, President Joe Biden, and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Secret Service protection. RNC convention security plans are also being re-examined.
An investigation is already underway. The Secret Service will be asked to explain how the shooter got so close to Trump – and investigators will establish the order of events, determining how the shooter gained access to the roof and whether rallygoers’ warnings about seeing a man with a gun went unheeded. Director Kimberly Cheatle has been summoned to testify before a committee of the US House of Representatives on July 22. Meanwhile, the Secret Service has denied claims that it rebuffed requests from Trump’s team for heavier security in recent weeks.
A private security force?
With mistrust of the Secret Service running high in Republican circles, could they push for Trump to re-establish his own private security force? Possibly, and there is precedent.
Trump retained private security during his 2016 campaign when he was not eligible for Secret Service protection. After his election, he continued to engage his long-time head of security, retired New York City police officer and Navy veteran Keith Schiller, as a private bodyguard, which broke protocol and sparked some controversy. Schiller left the White House in October 2017, but his security company, KS Global Group LLC, was subsequently hired by the Republican National Committee to consult on security at the RNC’s 2020 convention.
To read more about what happened and what’s likely to come next, click here. Watch Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take here for his insights about the assassination attempt. And be sure to look back at two notable examples in history when a sitting or former US president survived being hit by an assassin’s bullet here.
