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Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump gives a thumbs up to supporters after filing the paperwork to put his name on the ballot for the primary election in Concord, New Hampshire, U.S., October 23, 2023.
Young, Angry, and Trumpy
Happy Top Risk Thursday, where we and our partner company Eurasia Group dive into the much-anticipated forecast of the biggest threats we all face this year. You can download the full report here and let us know if you agree or not (or if you now need a drink).
But let’s start with the Top Risk of the year, the US vs. itself. There was a small skirmish last night in the B-league, silver-medal debate between Republican candidates Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis on CNN that was high on personal insult and low on political consequence. Meanwhile on Fox … he was back for Season 2! Donald Trump held a live town hall, ignoring the other candidates who stand little chance against him. It is Trump’s show now, and Fox is back on board. Here we go!
The Iowa caucus on Jan. 15 formally lights the election fuse on what could be the US electoral version of the film “Oppenheimer.” Bidenheimer? Trumpenheimer? Pick your potential destroyer of worlds, as per your partisan pallor. The rest of the globe is watching because what happens in the US impacts everything from trade to conflicts.
The US is at its most divisive point in generations, but the real story might be, well, generational.
GZERO Media has exclusive access to new polling from Abacus Data, which asked Canadians about the 2024 US presidential election, and the results are telling. Who wants Donald Trump to win? Apparently, young people do.
Overall, 34% of Canadians want Trump to win, and 66% want Biden, which is not a shocker. Neither is the party line breakdown. Preferences for Trump vs. Biden by political choice in Canada are as follows:
Conservatives: Trump 57%, Biden 43%
Liberals: Biden 86%, Trump 14%
New Democrats: Biden 83%, Trump 17%
But check out the breakdown by age: Canadians under 45 are much more likely to prefer Trump to Biden than those over the age of 45. Here’s how it breaks down:
Ages 18-29: 40% want Trump
Ages 30-44: 41% want Trump
45-59: 34% want Trump
60+: Only 23% want Trump
More than any other demographic, young people really want Trump to win. "The strength of Trump in Canada, especially among younger Canadians, reflects a shift in voting behavior and preferences among younger people as they react to a world they feel is deeply broken,” David Coletto, president of Abacus Data, told me (see his Substack here). “In Canada, 49% of men under 45 would prefer to see Trump win the presidency. But even one in three younger women would prefer Trump.”
By the way, this also reflects polling done in the US. A new Gallup survey shows that 42% of Americans between ages 18 and 34 are Trump supporters, and 44% of those aged 35-54 also favor the former president. Biden is losing support among young people and, interestingly, with people of color.
This upends all sorts of assumptions about how younger people vote and how Biden’s economic and social record is not resonating. In the Age vs Rage election, Rage is winning so far, and it’s starting to steal the younger demographic. It also likely reflects where younger people get their information, like TikTok, which recycles a lot of pissed-off voices shouting about why everything sucks (despite many facts to the contrary) and turns it into news.
What does this mean for elections outside of the United States? The conventional wisdom is that Trump might hurt the chances of other conservative or right-wing parties and boost the Left’s prospects, but that might not be the case. “For politicians in Canada who think they will be able to use the US election to their own political advantage – like the Liberals – these results suggest that may not be possible,” Coletto says.
This is consequential. We’ve seen the same story in polling around Israel and Hamas, where older people support Israel’s fight against Hamas, which is recognized as a terrorist group by both the US and Canadian governments. But many younger people feel very differently about the situation, and their support for the Hamas-led fight in Gaza is revealing. It’s not a stretch to forecast that political support for Israel from places like Canada and the US, as the next generation comes to power, might look different than it does today. “The shift in youth preferences may become the story of 2024 with big political implications in the US and in Canada,” Coletto says.
It is still very early in the US election cycle, but the biggest surprise so far? Trump connects with the kids. Everywhere.
________
As I finished writing my column today, news broke that former federal New Democrat leader Ed Broadbent has died at age 87. Broadbent was the very definition of a true public servant and embodied the best of what people expect from political leaders. He transformed and modernized the NDP from the left-wing political conscience of Parliament to a viable power player in government.
Broadbent, as my colleague Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro-Geopolitics practice, put it, “distinguished himself as a political thinker, a champion of working-class Canadians, and a politician who earned the respect of his peers across the House of Commons and of people throughout Canada."
- Evan Solomon, Publisher
Digital natives: Redefining youth digital literacy
Contrary to the common notion that today's young people are inherently digital-savvy due to their exposure to technology, chief innovation officer of USAID, Mohamed Abdel-Kader says that simply knowing how to navigate social media or use a smartphone does not equate to digital literacy. In a recent GZERO livestream presented by Visa, Abdel-Kader expressed how young people are not innately able to understand the broader implications of their digital actions, including being aware of the consequences of their online posts, critically evaluating information discovered, and navigating a digital world of “fake news.”
Education is the key, says Abdel-Kader. Digital education is essential to prepare the youth for the ever-evolving digital age, to equip the next generation to be active but responsible participants in the growing digital world.
To hear more about the challenges and opportunities that nation-states face when it comes to digitization, and how it could shape a more inclusive and resilient future, watch the full livestream here:
What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world
- What Ukraine's digital revolution teaches the world ›
- The Graphic Truth: Twitter doesn't rule the social world ›
- Exclusive GZERO/Maru Poll: With hate speech rising, Americans want a crackdown on social media ›
- Empowering small businesses in the digital age ›
- The weaknesses of a digital economy - GZERO Media ›
How to support youth seeking peace
Youth in South Africa want to thrive — but they lack opportunities.
As a youth peacemaker for the Whitaker Peace & Development Initiative, Khadija Mayman works to educate young people on the values of peace in Cape Town. It's not an easy job with violence and unemployment rising.
Her message to those in power: Don't give us things, but you can help us.
"We are saying that we are here, we want to do the work, but we cannot do it without the necessary support and capacity," Mayman says during a Global Stage livestream conversation hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
Watch the full Global Stage livestream conversation "The Road to 2030: Getting Global Goals Back on Track" .
Why should the UN listen to the private sector?
The UN is used to mostly dealing with governments, which represent member states, but they no longer monopolize power. That's why Secretary-General António Guterres says he also wants the private sector, cities, civil society, and especially youth to have a voice. In fact, young people make Guterres feel optimistic about the future, and he hopes that they'll continue waking up political leaders as citizens of the world.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: UN Sec-Gen: Without trust, catastrophe awaits
Frustration of surviving pricey Hong Kong stirs protest anger
HONG KONG (REUTERS) - Young people in Hong Kong have been at the forefront of violent protests over a proposed extradition law that have shaken the city and angered Beijing.