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A broken ethernet cable is seen in front of a US flag and TikTok logo.
The clock is ticking for … TikTok
President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed a law that could see TikTok banned nationwide unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, sells the popular app within a year. The law was motivated by national security concerns.
TikTok promptly vowed to challenge the “unconstitutional” law in court, saying it would “silence” millions of Americans – setting the stage for a battle over whether the law violates First Amendment rights.
Expect delays. Eurasia Group’s US Director Clayton Allen is skeptical that such legal challenges will be successful, but they will still likely delay “any action well into 2025, putting the onus – potentially – on a second Trump administration.”
Though Donald Trump moved to ban TiikTok while he was in office, the former president is now attacking Biden over the law and calling for “young people” to remember the move on Election Day.
Notably, Biden’s campaign says it plans to continue using TikTok to reach younger voters.
What will China do? China expects delays in the process but is likely to prohibit a sale if it comes to it, according to Eurasia Group, our parent company. Beijing is unlikely to respond with a tit-for-tat approach targeting American companies and will instead focus on building a fortress economy that’s insulated from US containment efforts.
The US flag and TikTok logo are seen in this illustration taken June 2, 2023.
TikTok on the clock
In a rare bipartisan vote of 352-65, the US House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday that – if it survives the Senate — could force TikTok to divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance or be banned on all US devices.
Many see TikTok as a threat to America’s national security since Chinese law requires private-sector companies to answer to the Chinese Communist Party. Lawmakers worry that Beijing could weaponize Americans’ user data (browsing history, location, contacts, etc.) and use the almighty algorithm to influence elections and further divide an already polarized country.
TikTok has found a surprising ally in 2024 hopeful Donald Trump. The former president pulled a 180 on supporting the ban, saying it will benefit American-owned Facebook — which he called a “true enemy of the people” (note, he doesn’t own that one). Trump’s change of heart came days after a meeting with GOP megadonor Jeff Yass, who owns a 15% stake in ByteDance.
What’s next: Although President Joe Biden signaled he would sign the bill, Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer’s willingness to bring it to the Senate floor, and how everyone will vote, remains unclear.
What is clear: No one will come out of this fight unscathed. If TikTok gets banned, 170 million TikTok users (especially young people and Trump) will revolt. If everything stays the same, millions of Americans could remain vulnerable to foreign manipulation.
Hugely popular TikTok unlikely to be banned by US Congress
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
Is Washington going to ban TikTok?
If you used the social media app TikTok over the past week, you've probably noticed that a lot of your favorite creators are starting to sound the alarm about a potential nationwide ban on the wildly popular application. Over half of US states and the federal government have already banned TikTok from some or all government-issued devices, and Congress is now mulling further actions, with Republicans and Democrats endorsing legislation that could directly or indirectly lead to a blanket ban on its operating in the United States.
A House committee hearing on Thursday featuring the TikTok CEO did not go well for the Chinese-owned company, with Democrats sounding the alarm about teenagers and mental health, and Republicans connecting it to a national security threat from China and drug trafficking.
Why has a social media app with over 150 million American users created so much controversy? Supporters of a nationwide TikTok ban argue that the app represents a threat to national security because its parent company ByteDance has connections to the Chinese Communist Party, who are accused of potentially using the app to collect massive amounts of data on American users. The US and China don't exactly have the best relationship right now, with lawmakers worried about Chinese data collection and the threat of China sending military aid to Russia.
The one area that has been consistently bipartisan in the United States in recent years has been countering China at every turn to prevent them from chipping away at America's economic and military dominance in the world.
TikTok has maintained that it keeps its user data private, and those who oppose banning the app argue that doing so would not actually help with data privacy, given them multitude of other companies who also collect and sell data on American users.
A big question for TikTok's critics is how China might be using the data it collects, which is primarily used for insights about which kind of cat videos users enjoy, to undermine American security, a question that was mostly left unanswered at the hearing.
Banning the app would be hugely unpopular. Nearly half of Americans use it. If TikTok is banned, it would be a major advantage for its American headquartered companies like Meta, which would likely see a surge of users to its imitator product Reels. Congress might not be willing to undergo this backlash, which means that the action may fall to President Biden, who is pushing for a nationwide ban unless ByteDance sells its shares of TikTok and keeps all its data here in the US. This seemingly harmless social media app could end up being one of the most high profile victims of the growing competition between the world's two largest economies.