We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
US presidential debate: More risk for Biden than Trump
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What do you expect from the first Trump-Biden debate?
Well, I'm going to be watching it. I am a little surprised it's happening, that they agreed on the rules which are more favorable to Biden and to so-called normal politicians. But, you know, we'll see. I think there's a lot more downside for Biden precisely because his age is perceived to be so much more of a problem. The State of the Union, he did very well. But this is a live-fire exercise. It's not a set piece. And so in that regard, there's more ways you can go badly. Having said that, if he's able to stand his ground, and if Trump seems like he's slobbing more, this is a lot more about how they appear than what they actually say. You hate to say that something is important as US presidential race, but of course, that is a lot of what American politics, especially the elections, are about.
With formal EU membership talks beginning, is Ukraine closer to accession?
Yeah. I mean, every step you can take, it's a long process. It is absolutely making it easier for the Ukrainians to actually get in. But let's keep in mind there's a lot of uncertainty out there. First of all, with French elections coming up soon, if it turns out that Le Pen's National Rally party gets a majority. Hung parliaments more likely, but if it gets a majority, she could shut down, lots of components of EU accession talks, which would include Ukraine. The Parliament would no longer support additional movement and that's a problem. You need all 27 states to allow this to go through. And France is in a position where that might be the case. Also if Trump wins in the US, keep in mind Trump does not support a strong united EU. He wants further exits. He wants a weak EU to the extent that that gives space for people like Orbán and other European members that are more skeptic to oppose accession, it could get more challenging. So, I don't think this is a done deal by any means.
China just brought back rocks from the far side of the moon. The first time that's happened. Are we in a new Space Race?
Well, we are in the sense that the Chinese care a lot about having more capacity in space for scientific achievement, for national pride and also for national security. But still, if you look at the number of satellites that are up there, I mean, you know, the United States is nine times, so 900% greater. That's a pretty big deal. And that is not NASA. That is the private sector in the US. It is Elon and SpaceX. It is Jeff Bezos. It's other companies. And the fact that the entrepreneurship in the U.S has allowed American space exploration to grow, which NASA can fund and the Pentagon can fund and take advantage of, has been a huge advantage for the US.
Doesn't mean they're all and always aligned with American national security, but it's certainly not a space race versus the Chinese.
- Ukraine on the path to joining NATO, says deputy Mircea Geoanǎ ›
- Ukraine accepts EU trade restrictions to appease Poland ›
- The one good reason to watch the Biden-Trump debates ›
- Trump vs. Biden: Let’s get ready to rumble ›
- All eyes on the Biden-Trump debate ›
- Debate Bingo: Welcome to the 2024 Biden-Trump showdown - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Bremmer on debate: A big loss for Biden - GZERO Media ›
- With Biden out, can Kamala Harris defeat Trump? - GZERO Media ›
An Iranian woman is walking under a billboard that is displaying an image of the Iranian Qased satellite carrier in a residential area in northwestern Tehran, Iran, on December 13, 2023.
An Axis of ... Rockets?
On Saturday, Iran launched the Soraya satellite about 750 kilometers above the Earth’s surface, its highest orbit so far. Iran’s civilian space program first successfully launched a satellite back in 2009 and then had some success with light, limited-lifespan satellites, but it struggled with more heavy-duty rockets, leading to multiple failed launches.
Today, space tech is a key priority for Tehran, and it kicked off 2023 with a 10-year plan to reach its goal of sending a human into the final frontier. It will have Moscow’s help along the way, thanks to an agreement signed in December 2022 formalizing cooperation between their space agencies. An Iranian imaging satellite had already caught a ride on a Russian rocket in August 2022, one month after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Iran. It was his first foreign trip following his invasion of Ukraine, for which Iran has supplied key drones.
Hermit Kingdom blasts off
North Korea’s space program managed only two successful satellite launches before last year. But in September 2023, after two embarrassing failures to launch a spy satellite, Putin hosted Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un at a spaceport near Vladivostok. Kim pledged to support Putin in Ukraine, while Putin told reporters he would help with North Korea’s space program.
Lo and behold, about two months later, Pyongyang finally got its spy satellite in orbit. Kim is aiming to launch three more this year.
What to watch
Western governments are worried that lessons learned from putting satellites in space could be applied to dropping nukes on cities.
It’s not an idle concern: The rockets Pyongyang used for its successful satellite launches are based on the Taepodong-2 and Hwaseong-17 ballistic missiles. The Qaem 100 that Iran used on Saturday was designed by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite branch of the Iranian military that controls the missile forces.
Greg Brew, an Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, says Iran is playing at a larger nuclear hedge strategy. Tehran, he says, focuses on developing civilian nuclear and rocket technology that will allow a “sprint” to build nuclear bombs and ICBMs if needed – without attracting international opprobrium from building and testing them in the meantime. But while Russia may be willing to help with the civilian side, Brew adds, nuclear tech is an ace Moscow holds close.
“The evidence would suggest Iran-Russia space cooperation is still focused on non-weapons aspects, but it all lays the foundation for potential further cooperation to develop,” he said.
War in space? Time to update space law
The UN wants to prevent an arms race in space. How? By reforming international space law, which hasn't been updated in more than 50 years.
The current treaty was negotiated during the Cold War, when only two countries — the US and the Soviet Union — had viable programs. Ratified by 111 countries, it bans space nukes and grants all countries the right to peacefully explore space — including the Moon.
The 1967 Outer Space Treaty also says countries can’t claim sovereignty over celestial bodies. But that was before private space exploration by the likes of Richard Branson or Jeff Bezos.
The UN thinks it's time to update the law with more concrete rules and norms not only to prevent conflict, but also to regulate things like future mining on the Moon.
Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Will Putin invade Ukraine?
- What We're Watching: Musk irks China, Abbas meets Gantz in Israel ... ›
- Big Tech's big challenge to the global order - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: Space junk — enter the trashosphere - GZERO ... ›
- Amazon satellites and Project Kuiper: next steps in Big Tech space ... ›
- Finland joins NATO in face off against Russia - GZERO Media ›
Tech in 60 Seconds: Apple's Revenue, China Space Race, and Uber for Kids
China lands on the far side of the moon, and just might be leading the space race.
It's Tech in 60 Seconds with Nicholas Thompson!
And go deeper on issues like cybersecurity and artificial intelligence at Microsoft Today in Technology.