We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A view shows the damaged cars, after a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Libya.
The politics of aid in flooded Libya
Eastern Libya is reeling from devastating floods that have killed at least 3,000 people, while as many as 10,000 are missing. The deluge ripped through two dams on Monday, destroying entire towns and neighborhoods.
Much of the destruction is centered around the eastern city of Derna on the Mediterranean.
The recovery effort is underway, but there are fears that political factionalism could frustrate that mission. That’s largely because the eastern part of the country where the flood hit is largely ruled by a warlord who is vying for control of territory and energy resources.
A recap: Libya’s fractured politics. Since 2014, three years after Libya’s longtime despot Muammar Qaddafi was killed in an uprising, political power has been split between two rival governments, the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), and a rival faction led by the self-described anti-Islamist Khalifa Haftar, a former general in Qaddafi’s army who leads the Libyan National Army (LNA).
Each side has captured oil fields – the country's economic lifeline – and each has its own central bank. What’s more, Islamic militant groups have also struggled for power.
For now, the two sides seem to be working together. After this week’s events, the government in western Libya sent 14 tons of medical supplies as well as health workers to the eastern city of Benghazi, while also earmarking $412 million for reconstruction of Derna and surrounding areas – shocking many observers who have watched the conflict devolve over the past decade.
“The priority right now is to deal with the humanitarian situation,” says Omar Monieb, a Middle East expert at Eurasia Group, adding that while “both sides are trying to showcase international support and publicizing the calls/aid that they received because it shows some form of legitimacy,” they still seem to be cooperating on the recovery effort.
Meanwhile, a top military chief from Egypt, Haftar’s main ally, has reportedly flown into Libya to help coordinate the recovery effort, while Turkey and the United Arab Emirates have also sent rescue teams.
(For more on the role of outside players in the conflict, see our explainer here.)
Despite the show of unity, political tensions remain high between the rival governments – and the militaries they control – who continue to reject international efforts to oversee fresh national elections.
What We’re Watching: Libya delays vote, Sudan’s embattled PM, COVID cures, EU-UK fish deal
Libya election postponed. As many had expected, Libya’s election will in fact be postponed. The vote, the first since psycho autocrat Muammar Qaddafi was ousted in a NATO-backed uprising 10 years ago, was supposed to happen on Friday. Now the country’s electoral board says it will be postponed by a month, until January 24. The move isn’t a surprise: for weeks the two rival governments that run Libya — and their outside backers — have been squabbling over electoral rules and candidate eligibility. The question now is whether delaying the vote genuinely gives the parties time to agree on a process that seems legitimate enough to hold, or whether the move risks further unraveling a fragile and fragmented country. The UN has already raised alarm about rival armed groups setting up positions in and around Tripoli.
Sudan PM to step down? Meanwhile, Libya’s southeastern neighbor Sudan isn’t having an easy time of it either. Beleaguered PM Abdalla Hamdok could soon step down amid protests over the transitional military-civilian government. Hamdok represents the civilian wing under a deal negotiated after the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in 2019. But that agreement has always been shaky — in October, the military staged a coup and arrested Hamdok, only to release and reinstate him a month later under a fresh arrangement. But supporters of the civilians rejected that new pact, and in recent days they have thronged the streets to call for “no partnership, no negotiation, no compromise” with the generals. Sudan can ill-afford another political crisis — one-third of the population is already in need of humanitarian assistance, and the number of Sudanese in outright life-threatening conditions rose 75 percent to 13 million in 2021. Meanwhile, Sudan is also struggling to accommodate refugees from the ongoing war in neighboring Ethiopia, and to navigate the ongoing diplomatic and security challenges posed by the Ethiopian construction of a massive hydroelectric dam upstream on the Nile.
Covid pill pops, Pentagon miracle jab to follow? The FDA on Wednesday approved the first oral, at-home, antiviral medicine for those infected with COVID-19. Pfizer's Paxlovid pill reduces severe illness by up to 90 percent in high-risk people who take it early in the course of their infection. In the coming days US regulators are likely also to greenlight a similar pill made by Merck, called Molnupiravir, though France seems less keen. The arrival of mass produced oral therapeutics is a major turning point in the pandemic, giving doctors and public health systems a powerful tool to reduce mortality from the disease, while also reducing pressures on hospitals. Also this week we learned that the US Military has developed what sounds too good to be true: a vaccine that works not only against all current variants but against all future ones too? Forgive us for thinking this was an Onion headline at first, but we're eager to learn more about Pentagon Pharma's potentially game-changing jab.
UK and EU reach 🐟 deal. The EU and the UK reached a compromise on Wednesday to end a contentious fight over fish. The two sides will share fish stocks next year by reverting to the quotas included in last year's post-Brexit trade agreement. On the plus side, each side now knows exactly how much fish it (and the other) is permitted to catch in 2022, though on the downside environmentalists still say the number is too high. Still, this deal doesn't solve the nasty bilateral UK-France row over who gets to fish which waters in the English Channel. In recent weeks, the UK has shown more willingness to compromise by granting French fishing vessels more licenses to operate in the disputed waters, but Paris wants a lot more. Fishing rights are a big deal in the two countries — expect them to come up as a campaign issue in next year's French presidential election.Libya’s bad choices
It’s been a decade since Muammar Qaddafi, one of the world’s most eccentric despots, was ousted and killed in a popular uprising. But instead of enjoying a new democratic dawn, Libya has since spiraled into inter-factional conflict and chaos.
The country’s luck is supposed to change next week when Libya’s first democratic elections are scheduled to take place. But it now seems all but certain that the vote will be stalled — or scrapped altogether.
What’s the state of play in Libya, and why are so many external powers jockeying for power in this poorly understood country of 7 million people?
Background. Tribalism and factionalism have filled a power vacuum since Qaddafi’s ouster, and the country has been split between areas controlled by the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, backed by the UN, and the Libyan National Army, a militia headed by warlord Khalifa Haftar.
Making matters worse, external backers with an interest in Libya have flooded the country with weapons, making it an online hub for the illegal arms trade – and an arid wonderland for terrorist groups.
Race to the bottom. Currently, there are three main contenders who could sort of, maybe become president if the vote goes ahead – and if they aren’t banned by the fickle electoral commission. First, there’s interim PM Abdelhamid Dabeiba, a former businessman who heads the GNA. Dabeiba recently lost a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives in the country’s east, and is accused of using state funds to bankroll his candidacy.
Also in the running is Haftar, who heads the militia that led an armed offensive on the capital Tripoli in 2019 after using force to take over the country’s southern oil fields. Members of the renegade LNA have been accused of war crimes.
And finally, there’s Saif Qaddafi, son of the late strongman who played dead for almost a decade. On top of being a verified weirdo who says things like this, “I’ve been away from the Libyan people for 10 years… You need to come back slowly, slowly. Like a striptease,” Saif is also wanted by the International Criminal Court for his role in quashing dissent during the 2011 uprising.
But it’s not just the 3 million Libyans that have registered to vote who are eagerly watching unfolding events. A handful of external players is also keenly keeping track.
The divided view from Europe. Libya, which has the biggest oil reserves in Africa, is awash with liquid gold. That has caused a rift within the EU between Italy – the former colonial power that wants to ensure ongoing access to oil reserves – and France, which has a different set of oil – and broader strategic – interests there.
In addition, the entire EU is concerned with curbing migration flows from Libya to Europe, which have soared in recent years. But France and Italy have different priorities and competing visions of how to secure their interests on that issue, as well.
Paris is banking on the tough-minded Haftar to stabilize Libya and clamp down on extremist elements in society that could be exported to Europe. Italy, meanwhile, has inked a morally dubious immigration agreement with the Libyan government that puts the onus on Tripoli to return would-be asylum-seekers in exchange for cash and training.
The diehard backers. But most of the shots over the past decade have been called by Russia and Turkey, whose respective preoccupations with the country are both economic and ideological.
Russia, which has deployed at least 1,000 mercenaries to bolster Haftar’s forces, has been drilling for oil in the country. Importantly, Moscow also sees Libya as a fertile ground to expand its influence in North Africa while a distracted Washington is focused elsewhere. Turkey, for its part, needs Libya on board to expand its claim over swaths of the energy-rich eastern Mediterranean. (Ankara has signed a contentious maritime border deal with the GNA that gives it access to lucrative gas reserves, infuriating Greece and Cyprus, which have competing claims.)
Moreover, Egypt and a number of Gulf states vehemently oppose the GNA, which includes a faction aligned with the rival Muslim Brotherhood.
Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Those calling for next week’s vote to be canned say that mistrust is too high, and that whatever the outcome, it will create a new crisis of legitimacy. Others say that the current ceasefire was only meant to be temporary, paving the way for elections now – and that all hell will break loose if the polls are cancelled.
Democracy never comes easily, especially to a country where so many outsiders have big stakes in how it develops.
Saif al-Islam al-Gaddafi, son of Libya's former leader Muammar al-Gaddafi, registers as a presidential candidate for the December 24 election, at the registration centre in the southern town of Sebha, Libya November 14, 2020.
What We're Watching: Qaddafi junior runs for Libyan president
Qaddafi redux in Libya? From the progeny of one dictator to another. Ten years after the death of former Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi, his son Saif — dressed in Berber robes eerily similar to his father's classic outfit — registered on Sunday to run for president in the December 24 election. With his comeback, Saif Qaddafi hopes that those nostalgic for the stability of the previous regime, as well as Libyans tired of the decade of chaos and civil war that followed his dad's ouster, will give him their vote. But if the elections happen at all, which is quite uncertain due to ongoing bickering between factions on the rules and schedule, Qaddafi's son faces long odds. For one thing, it's unlikely he will campaign in public because he fears for his safety and has an outstanding ICC arrest warrant for crimes against humanity (a Libyan court also sentenced him to death for war crimes in 2015, although that ruling was later overturned). For another, he'll be up against tough rivals backed by different groups of foreign powers like General Khalifa Haftar, a warlord supported by the Gulf states and Russia; Aguila Saleh, the influential parliamentary speaker; and PM Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, head of the UN-backed National Unity Government.
Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi attends a celebration of the 40th anniversary of his coming to power at the Green Square in Tripoli September 1, 2009.
On 10th anniversary of Qaddafi’s death, signs of stability in Libya
Former Libyan strongman Muammar Qaddafi was killed by rebels on 20 October, 2011, after a NATO intervention designed to protect civilians helped strengthen an uprising against his regime. Since then, the country has been mired in chaos as different factions have battled for control, resulting in extensive destruction and human causalities. Libya has been nominally governed since 2014 by warring administrations backed by foreign powers in the west and east of the country. Last year, UN mediation efforts finally began to gain traction with an agreement on a cease-fire and a roadmap for elections to be held later this year. We talked with Eurasia Group expert Ahmed Morsy to find out how things are going.
Is the cease-fire holding?
For the most part it is, though there have been some localized clashes. Also, the parties have not followed through on commitments to remove foreign-backed mercenaries from the country, including groups financed by Turkey, UAE, and Russia. The lack of movement on dismantling militias and withdrawing foreign fighters highlights the continued lack of trust between the warring factions. Military might is used to assert power and extract concessions.
How about the elections?
Last year's agreement yielded a new Government of National Unity headed by Abdulhamid Dbeibah and a three-member Presidential Council headed by Mohamed al Menfi. It tasked them with working with existing institutions to prepare presidential and parliamentary elections. Yet the different political actors have been bickering about who has the power to make laws, and what are the main requirements for prospective candidates. The eastern-based parliament, for example, passed electoral laws without input from other groups, prompting interventions from UN officials and other local leaders to lower tensions and search for a consensus. These dynamics and the clashes between eastern- and western-based personalities suggest it will be difficult to hold elections on time. Meanwhile, the rivalries are delaying agreement on other issues such as the budget, reconstruction plans, and military unification.
Have economic conditions improved?
The relatively positive steps taken over the past nine months and overall improved security have helped Libya's oil sector, the main driver of its economy. Oil production is at an eight-year high, averaging 1.2 million barrels a day since January 2021, and high oil prices are boosting revenue. The National Oil Corporation has ambitious plans to double its output by 2025. Yet the investments needed to meet this goal could be undermined by the country's still fragile security environment and political process, posing the risk of setbacks for the country's crucial oil sector.
What is the status of migration flows to Europe?
Despite the improvement in security conditions, the interim unity government has been unable to follow through on arrangements with its European partners to combat illicit migration, and Libya has continued to serve as a hub for criminal gangs operating detention centers and exploiting the lucrative and illegal human-trafficking business. According to the UN, the number of migrants intercepted at sea in 2020 in the first half of 2021 has already surpassed last year's total. Many of them are refugees from war-torn regions across Africa. This problem will not likely be resolved until a new government and representative bodies are in place and can enforce the country's borders.
Ten years on, what lessons have been learned from the NATO intervention in Libya?
The NATO intervention was critical for protecting civilians, but it also contributed to the overthrow of Qaddafi's regime. Then, crucially, it was not followed by any serious work to help rebuild the country and unite Libyans under a single state. This allowed for tribalism and factionalism to take over amid a power and security vacuum and an abundance of weapons. While overall security in the country since has improved, vast ungoverned areas remain a playground for numerous extremist and criminal groups, many of which are supported by outside powers.
Ahmed Morsy is a Eurasia Group senior analyst covering North Africa.
A rebel fighter holds a Kingdom of Libya flag and a knife during shelling by soldiers loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in a battle near Ras Lanuf, March 4, 2011.
What We’re Watching: Libya’s future, Azeris and Iranians bicker, Shakira fights wild boars
Will Libya's elections go ahead? Should they? Libya, mired in a decade-long civil war, is set to hold elections for a new president and parliament later this year. The US, along with Italy and France, say that elections should go ahead no matter what. But other Western players have pushed back, saying that ongoing civil war means the country isn't yet ready for democracy, and the result of an election won't be deemed legitimate. Meanwhile, an estimated 10,000-20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries are still lurking in Libya, mostly deployed by Russia and Turkey, neither of which are in any hurry to recall their mercs, perhaps just in case the election doesn't work out and Libya slides back into civil war. Complicating matters further, last week the lower house of parliament passed a no-confidence vote against the UN-backed government over misuse of public funds. The interim government has been accused of stalling elections, instead calling for a "stabilization initiative" that would help lay the groundwork for a free and fair vote later on. But that is unlikely to fly with general Khalifa Hafta, who heads the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army and has long been vying for control of the oil-rich country.
Not now, Iran and Azerbaijan! Why is Iran massing military equipment on the border with its northern neighbor Azerbaijan? The two countries have been at odds in recent weeks after Azeri cops started fining and detaining Iranian truck drivers crossing their territory to deliver cargos to Azerbaijan's arch-enemy Armenia. Recall that last year Azerbaijan won a brutal war with Armenia over the long-contested region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Iran's relations with the Azeris have always been touchy: for one thing, the two countries are rival gas export powers; for another, Iran doesn't love Azerbaijan's close ties with Israel, Tehran's number one bête noire. As tensions flare, both sides have to tread carefully. Azerbaijan doesn't want open conflict with much larger Iran, while Tehran has a lot on its plate — the economy is a shambles, nuclear talks with the US are stalled, and it's already managing proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Wild boars attack Shakira in Barcelona: Imagine you're strolling through a beautiful Barcelona park. Then you run into two wild boars. Yes, wild boars. That's exactly what happened on Wednesday to Shakira, the Colombian pop star whose hips never lie. Shakira says the wild boars then "attacked" her and her eight-year-old son Milan — whose dad is the FC Barcelona soccer player Gerard Piqué — before dragging away her bag and destroying its contents. Shakira's brush with the sharp-tusked hairy hogs is only the latest incident of wild boars — whose forest habitat across Europe is increasingly being wiped out by climate change and urban development — encroaching on European cities. They've become a big nuisance in Berlin, where hundreds have been culled, and Rome, where mayoral candidates are blaming each other for the "invasion." An even more serious threat is that wild boars carry infectious diseases that can be dangerous for humans.US Supreme Court building in Washington, DC.
What We're Watching: SCOTUS wades into abortion minefield, mercs in Libya, Chinese kids learn how Xi thinks
SCOTUS lights the fuse on a culture war bomb: Texas imposed a near complete ban on abortion on Wednesday, hours after the US Supreme Court declined to rule on whether a law that prohibits the procedure after doctors can detect a fetal "heartbeat" is constitutional. Pro-choice Americans say the law, written by the Republican-controlled Texas legislature, violates the provisions of the landmark 1973 Roe vs Wade, in which the Supreme Court ruled that abortion is, with some caveats, a constitutional right. The law would make it illegal to abort as early as six weeks into pregnancy, in effect outlawing some 85 percent of elective abortions in the state. Although President Biden says he opposes the law and would protect Roe v Wade, he has yet to take any concrete action. SCOTUS could still rule on the law, but the debate around it is certain to be a major third-rail issue in US politics as the 2022 midterms approach. A majority of Americans say abortion should be legal in almost all cases, but the split is sharply partisan: 80 percent of Democrats agree, compared to only 35 percent of Republicans.
Libya's neighbors tell mercenaries, go home! Representatives from countries that border Libya met this week to discuss a political roadmap for the country's first nationwide democratic election since civil war erupted in 2011. As part of that, they called for removal of the estimated 10,000-20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries who are still lurking in the country, even though a ceasefire was signed last October. The UN has repeatedly blasted the continued presence of these heavily armed guns-for-hire, among them at least a thousand Russians suspected of war crimes and, on the other side of the conflict, many more Syrian fighters deployed by Turkey. The problem is that neither the Russians nor the Turks are in any hurry to recall their mercs, perhaps just in case the election doesn't work out and Libya slides back into civil war.
What should Chinese kids think? It's simple: they should think whatever President Xi Jinping thinks. Starting this year, school curricula for pupils as young as seven will be seeded with pearls of wisdom from "Xi Jinping Thought," a vast collection of ideological, sociological, and historical musings from the man himself. The move is part of a wider effort to cultivate a kind of cult of personality around Xi, who is arguably the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. But we actually have a copy of "Xi Jinping Thought" and can tell you, it's not that exciting. Here's a selection from Xi's riveting book, The Governance of China, Volume 1: "We should perfect our competence- nurturing mechanism according to personal development laws, 'we should respect a tree's nature and let it grow freely.'" School's in session, kids!A protester holds a placard during a protest in defense of free media in Gdansk, Poland.
What We’re Watching: Polish coalition on the ropes, Ethiopian PM’s call to arms, Russian mercs in Libya
Polish government in trouble: Poland's rightwing coalition government is on the ropes after PM Mateusz Morawiecki fired his deputy, Jaroslaw Gowin, for opposing two key pieces of legislation: a raft of tax reforms that Morawiecki says will help the middle class but Gowin fears will actually hurt them, as well as a proposed new law restricting foreign media ownership, which critics say is meant to silence unfriendly reporting by a US-owned TV network. Without the support of Gowin's small center-right Agreement party, the coalition government — formed by the ruling PiS and the far-right United Poland — could lose its slim majority in parliament, which in turn would force Morawiecki to call an early election. If he does so, he'll face a tough rival in a familiar face for Poles: former PM and European Commission top honcho Donald Tusk, who wants to run for his old job.
Ethiopia's descent: Ethiopia has been gripped by conflict between the government and militant leaders in the region of Tigray for nine months now, but the country of 112 million people may now be on the brink of a wider civil war. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed sounded the alarm on Tuesday with a call for "all capable Ethiopians" to "show their patriotism" by taking up arms against rebels from the Tigray People's Liberation Front, who are now expanding their reach beyond their home region. Abiy, who just weeks ago offered a unilateral ceasefire, now wants able-bodied civilians not just to carry weapons, but also "track down and expose spies and agents of the terrorist TPLF." (The TPLF denies being a terrorist group and claims to be the legitimate government of the Tigray region.) This is bad news for a conflict that has already pushed more than two million people from their homes.
Russian mercs' war crimes in Libya: For years, Russian mercenaries employed by the shadowy Wagner Group have been plying their trade across Africa and elsewhere. Now we know what they were up to in Libya... thanks to files on a tablet left behind by an operative. A BBC analysis of the content on the device shows evidence of war crimes such as intentionally targeting civilians and placing landmines in unmarked areas. There also seems to be proof of Russia supplying them with state-of-the art military equipment, which Moscow has always denied. About 1,000 soldiers of fortune with the Wagner Group — a private military company believed to be owned by a Russian catering tycoon known as "Putin's chef" — fought on behalf of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar against the UN-backed government in Tripoli from 2019 to 2020. It's unclear how many remain almost year after a ceasefire agreement (technically) ended Libya's civil war, but the incriminating tablet is a good reason to get out of Dodge.