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Bloodbaths vs. Patriots
In the traffic jam of elections that is 2024 – there are over 50 this year worldwide – the US is still the BelAZ 75710 mega hauler of elections, the biggest rig that carries more payload than any other on the political road. So when it tips over, it’s impossible to ignore. Everything matters about the US 2024 election, and we have to stay within the nonpartisan lines to avoid veering off-road.
So after Donald Trump gave a fiery speech in Ohio last weekend about an impending “bloodbath” if he’s not elected, it’s worth sorting through the carnage of coverage to see what he meant. “Now, if I don’t get elected, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the whole…” he said. “That’s going to be the least of it, it’s going to be a bloodbath for the country. That’ll be the least of it.”
Did he mean another civil war, as some thought? Or, more plausibly and as his campaign has claimed, did he say it in the context of the auto industry and his concerns about high tariffs from China and Mexico?
That matters. Still, even the most charitable interpretation of Trump’s remarks – and I do think he was referring to the auto industry – doesn’t mean he wasn’t also playing footsie with apocalyptic, blood-soaked rhetoric, as he has long done. Warning people about illegal immigrants “poisoning the bloodstream" of the nation and openly talking about being a “dictator” are now standard parts of his campaign playbook.
The bigger problem is that the fallout obscured a much less difficult-to-interpret and more important moment in Trump's speech in which he openly rebranded the insurrectionists of Jan. 6, 2021, as “patriots” and those who went to prison after fair trials as “hostages.” It’s as if Jan. 6 is some 1979 redux of the Iranian hostage crisis and not a deadly attempt to overturn a free and fair US election. “You see the spirit from the hostages, and that's what they are, is hostages,” he said, adding: “And we’re going to be working on that as soon as the first day we get into office. We’re going to save our country, and we’re going to work with the people to treat those unbelievable patriots.”
The point is that this election is already overturning political norms in ways we have never seen in the US. There are other dynamics worth examining as well. Are Joe Biden and the Democrats radically shifting their support not only away from just the Netanyahu government’s wartime policy, but from Israel in general? What could that mean over the long term in the Middle East? What about getting more support for Ukraine? Or, as Ian Bremmer wrote for GZERO yesterday, how will America's new role as a fossil fuel superpower under a Democratic president play out politically and from a climate change perspective?
These are the core election questions this year. Is the US on the precipice of making fundamental changes to its role in the world and to its core democratic values? In her peerless book, “These Truths,” historian Jill Lepore surveys US history and asks whether the country has always lived up to its foundational values. It is the most important modern history book about the US, and its core thesis is playing out in real-time in the 2024 election.
This is a historic moment of testing that merits deeper coverage. That’s why we at GZERO are boosting our coverage of the US election and its impact on global politics.
First, check out our Election Watch section on the website, where we will aggregate our US and global elections coverage so you can get a clearer picture of what’s happening and what it means.
From April, we will also be changing our weekly video series with Eurasia Group’s Managing Director and lead Washington analyst Jon Lieber to “US Politics: Election 2024” and combining that with the weekly series “3 Big Things to Watch in the Election.”
We will also be continuing to track disinformation and the impact it has on the election as we did last month with the death of Alexei Navalny.
This weekend, on our weekly PBS TV program “GZERO World,” Ian Bremmer dives into the impact US foreign policy may have on the 2024 presidential election. The big question: Would a Trump second term bring considerable change to the way the US does business abroad? Ian’s guest this week, Harvard Kennedy School professor and acclaimed political scientist Stephen Walt, says it probably won’t. Ian disagrees. Tune in for a great debate.
It’s the first of several episodes Ian will devote to covering the US election and America’s impact on the world over the coming critical months.
So, get ready for more coverage and what we do best: more insight into what it means, why it matters, and where we are all headed. Let us know what else you want to see us cover.
President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting of the Investing in America Cabinet in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday. May 5, 2023.
Rate cuts could help Biden and Trudeau’s reelection prospects
The polls are grim these days for incumbent governments. Both President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are trailing their challengers, Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre, particularly when it comes to economic matters.
A new NBC News poll suggested only 36% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, compared to 61% who disapprove. Trump held a 5 percentage point lead when it came to voting intentions. Similarly, two in three Canadians believe Trudeau is taking the country in the wrong direction, while Poilievre holds a lead of up to 15 points on voting intentions for an election that could be 18 months out.
Both men have seen the corrosive impact of rising prices on their popularity. Biden's approval ratings are lower than any president since George W. Bush’s second term.
It may be that both leaders have outstayed their welcome. But they may yet be saved by tumbling inflation, an easing of interest rates, and the short memories of voters.
In the US, the second half of 2023 saw prices rising at around 2%, down from a high of 7.7%. That has happened, even as America sees strong job growth, creating double the forecast number of jobs in January at 353,000 new positions. The unemployment rate is just 3.7%.
Biden has already been selling that message. “Experts said that to get inflation under control, we needed to drive up unemployment. We found a better way,” he tweeted.
The Canadian picture is not quite as robust but still healthy. Unemployment is near historic lows at 5.8%, and poverty levels have halved in recent years, thanks to generous income transfer initiatives like child benefit and a national child care program. But, according to RBC Economics, rising interest rates have caused real pain.
Per capita household income rose by 2.8% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2023, while debt repayments rose by 6.4% in the same period, it said.
RBC predicts 2024 will remain a tough year, but with central banks looking to pivot to interest rate cuts, the ratio of household debt to income should rise less this year than in 2023. With polls showing that the rising cost of food and fuel are the preoccupation of up to three in four voters, any relief could have an impact on coming election campaigns.
Welcome to Antarctica: A conflict-free zone
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Happy New Year 2024 from Antarctica.
That's actually where I am in a year where we're going to have, unfortunately, so much international conflict, so much geopolitical posturing, so much difficulty around the world. Seems like a good place to take a fresh start to kick off the year one continent that is actually free of that conflict and free because the world has decided to govern it well, the Antarctic. They used to be territorial claimants with overlapping claims, old colonial powers, and countries that were closed, whether it's Chile, Argentina, France, the United Kingdom, Australia, others. But they all suspended those claims as they entered into an Antarctic Treaty back in 1959.
For the duration of that treaty, which still is in place today and will be, we think, for at least decades to come. That means that Antarctic is free and clear of territorial claims and also free and clear of any military use or any natural resource exploitation, any commercialization. Now, instead, it's used for peaceful and scientific purposes for the benefit of humanity on this planet, and it has been running as such for over 60 years, despite the fact that there's no enforcement mechanism for this treaty. It's a very thin document, and everybody basically engages to try to ensure that over time we'll all work together, and so far, so good.
In fact, right now I'm closest to a Russian research base and an Indian base. Even though those are countries that don't get along incredibly well, they manage to still socialize and share weather information, other data, you wouldn't know that they're from different countries. In fact, that's true of the Americans and the Chinese and pretty much everybody that's here on the ground in Antarctic. Now, part of the reason for that is because there's very few people on the ground. It's really hard to get here. There are no indigenous people whose land has been taken away and who have claims upon it.
So in a sense, the very remoteness has made it comparatively easier to govern. Also, the fact that no one has seen huge profit in it, and over time, that could change as the space rate race heats up and people see that basing rockets in the Antarctic or satellite tracking could be useful and have military purposes, commercial applications. Maybe as we're going to Mars. Certainly also, as we talk about rare earths and the ability to extract minerals from the earth. There'll be more discussion of this, but for now, at least 8 billion people on the planet and the Antarctic is run pretty darn well.
Now, climate change has made a difference, and I've seen that with emperor penguin colonies getting smaller and glaciers receding, but it still seems very far away, this continent, from what we've been experiencing pretty much everywhere else, and so nice to reflect on that for a moment as we kick off 2024. I hope everyone enjoyed their New Year. I'll be back in the States real soon and I'll be talking to you about topics that are very close to our heart and a little more challenging to talk about.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
The world of AI in 2024
2. Labor tensions: The acceleration of AI will continue to reshape industries, automating jobs and displacing workers. That will lead to widespread tension in various sectors of the economy. Union leaders could make AI the centerpiece of their strikes, and you might hear a lot of talk about “reskilling” workers on the lips of lawmakers heading into the 2024 election. This time it’s sure to work …
3. Copyright clarity: We don’t really know how AI models are trained, but we know they’re at least partially trained on unlicensed copyrighted material. Clarity is coming in Europe: The forthcoming AI Act mandates some transparency about training data. But in the US, where regulation is sparse, the courts are considering a big legal question about whether using copyrighted material as training data violates the law. At issue is whether the output is “transformative enough.” The answer to this legal question has extremely high stakes. Look for authors and artists to keep suing. But also look for companies, under pressure from lawmakers, to start opening up about how their systems are trained, whether copyrighted material is used, and why they think the stuff their models spit out does not constitute copyright infringement. We at GZERO aren’t holding our breath for writers' royalties (but we’d sure take ’em).
4. A big new law in Europe: The European Union’s AI Act is set to become law in the spring of 2024. Of course, lawmakers could falter before hitting the finish line, but an agreement this month made that unlikely. What’s ahead: The EU just held the first of 11 sessions to hammer out the details of the law, which will lead to a “four-column document” by February, reconciling proposals from the three EU legislative bodies. Only after that will country representatives vote to finalize the act. But this landmark law won’t have teeth in 2024 even if everything goes to plan because there’s a 12-month grace period for companies to comply. It’s all hurry up and wait.
5. The hype cycle continues: Major investment in AI won’t be a flash in the pan for 2023. With hints of lower interest rates, and still-palpable interest in AI from tech investors hungry for massive returns, expect the billion-dollar valuations, IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, and the big-moneyed investment from top tech firms in startups all to accelerate.
6. Congress does something: The US Congress does more bickering than lawmaking today. But there’s real political will to not get left behind on AI regulation. Lawmakers have been regularly discussing AI, grilling its corporate leaders, and brainstorming ideas for governance. They’ve proposed removing red tape for chipmakers, mandating disclosures for AI-generated political ads, and even considered a “light-touch” law-making AI developers self-certify for safety. It’s not necessarily likely that the US will pass something sprawling like the EU’s AI Act, but Congress will likely pass something about AI in the coming year. More than 50 different AI-related bills have been introduced since the 118th Congress began last year, but none have passed through either house of Congress.
7. Antitrust comes for AI: Regulators are circling. The US government sued Google for allegedly abusing its monopolies in search and advertising technology, Amazon for hurting competition on its e-commerce platform, and Meta for buying dominant market power through its Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions. That’s the hallmark of current FTC Chair Lina Khan and Justice Department antitrust chief Jonathan Kanter, who have been set on enforcing antitrust law against Big Tech. And that fervor is likely to hit AI in 2024. There’s lots of political will to use antitrust law in the UK and Europe, which means scrutiny will soon come to AI. In fact, it’s already here. The FTC and the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority are reportedly probing Microsoft’s investment into OpenAI – it’s not a full-fledged investigation yet, but in 2024 antitrust regulators will be watching AI very closely.
8. Election problems: In 2024, an unprecedented number of countries – some 40-plus – will head to the polls, and many will have their eyes on places like the United States and India for the use of AI in disinformation campaigns ahead of Election Day. There is concern about deepfake technology fueling confusion or contributing to an already-challenging misinformation problem. We’ve already seen deepfake songs impersonating Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and videos portraying US President Joe Biden. But what we haven’t seen yet is AI disrupting an election. Will 2024 be the year that AI-generated words, videos, images, and music play a surprising role in elections?
9. New companies you’ve never heard of. By the end of 2024, the top companies in AI may be the same as today: Anthropic, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. But chances are there will be a startup that you've never heard of on the list. Why? Not only is innovation an everyday reality in AI, but investors are excited to fund these projects to reap potential rewards. In the first half of 2023, AI's share of total startup funding in the US more than doubled from 11% to 26% compared to the same period in 2022. That includes household names and challengers you might have already heard of, such as OpenAI ($29 billion) and Anthropic ($5 billion), which had big funding rounds this year. But there are 15 new AI "unicorns" (billion-dollar companies) that could break into the mainstream, including the enterprise AI firm Cohere ($2.2 billion) and the research lab Imbue ($1 billion). Even in a high-interest rate environment, AI startups have fetched big valuations despite still-paltry revenue estimates — at a time when “easy money” has vanished from the broader tech sector. Expecting stasis would be foolish.
10. The real reason Sam Altman was fired: Expect to learn why OpenAI really fired Sam Altman in 2024. It’s perhaps the great mystery in AI, but it can’t remain a secret forever. If anyone knows the answer, please let us know.
Republican candidates line the Miami stage for Wednesday's GOP debate.
What this week’s vote and GOP debate mean for 2024
In a world obsessed with reading polls like prophecies, many are looking at Tuesday’s election results for evidence of where Americans really stand.
Despite Joe Biden’s lagging popularity, Democrats scored key victories on Election Day. They maintained control of the governorship in predominantly red Kentucky, made an impressive showing in Mississippi, and enshrined a constitutional right to abortion in Ohio. The abortion issue also helped Dems flip the House of Delegates and maintain control of the State Senate in Virginia.
So was Tuesday a harbinger of 2024?
Not if the five Republicans who took to the debate stage in Florida last night – former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott – have any say. With Donald Trump, who is 48 points ahead of second place DeSantis, refusing to take part, the debates are more of a pep rally for the Republican base than a competition at this point. But they reveal what the GOP thinks are winning and losing issues for the party.
Support for Israel was the biggest topic of debate, with candidates competing to display more support for American Jews domestically and Israel’s military abroad. National security followed close behind, and there was plenty of squabbling over who would be toughest on China. Meanwhile, the abortion issue got buried – it didn’t get mentioned until an hour and a half in.
But beyond the issues, Tuesday’s election results highlighted emerging threats to the GOP …
The power of the moderate Democrat: With the Republican Party reeling from the PR nightmare of taking three weeks to appoint a House speaker and the hard-right’s growing influence, many moderate Republicans and traditional conservatives are showing more of a willingness to shop around on the ballot.
Incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear’s win in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race and Democrat Brandon Presley’s narrow loss in his bid for the governor’s mansion in Mississippi are testaments to the power of the moderate Dem in suburbs, swing states, and even predominantly red ones like the Magnolia State, where Presley earned 47% of the vote.
Both candidates are being lauded as emerging political leaders because they can build coalitions, a strategy Democratic candidates running in inhospitable districts – and national elections – should heed. Beshear is one of the most popular governors in the country, despite running a state that voted for Trump by 26 points. His campaign leaned into the abortion issue and Medicaid access, rejected partisanship, and focused on jobs and the economy, gaining him cross-party appeal.
Abortion could help Biden’s popularity problem: We have seen what happened in Ohio before, and we're not talking about last August when Issue 1 – which concerned adding the right to abortion to the constitution – doubled turnout. Back in 2004, former President George W. Bush looked weak in the polls, so the GOP proposed constitutional amendments banning same-sex marriage in 11 key states, increasing socially conservative turnout in tight races among voters who might have otherwise stayed home.
Now, Democrats are taking a leaf from Bush’s playbook. At least 11 states are on track to have abortion-related measures on their ballots in 2024, including swing states like Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The election will almost certainly be close, and getting abortion on the ballot could overcome Biden’s lukewarm popularity and get Democratic and moderate voters to the polls in the states where he needs them the most.
In Ohio, 18 counties that voted for Trump in 2020 voted in favor of Issue 1. The same goes for 67 other Trump-won counties in the six states where abortion has been on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
In previous debates, only former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley recognized that abortion restriction was a liability for the GOP. But following Tuesday’s election, DeSantis softened his stance, while Haley continued calling for compromise, and Vivek Ramaswamy said “male responsibility” and paternity tests were the answer.
The moral of the story: Even with Biden’s approval rating in the tank, this week's election showed how making a few key counties a little less red can be decisive – a strategy Democrats will no doubt be hoping to repeat in November 2024. Meanwhile, Republican candidates will prepare for the next debate on Dec. 6 in the hopes of wooing voters ahead of the first primary in Iowa on Jan. 15.Former Vice President Mike Pence announces he is dropping out of the race for president of the United States at the Republican Jewish Coalition Annual Leadership Summit in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday.
Pence's withdrawal leaves Trump with one less obstacle
On Saturday, former US Vice President Mike Pence dropped out of the presidential race for the GOP nomination, saying that "this is not my time.”
After six months of campaigning, Pence had failed to galvanize a large enough base of support and donations. Bowing out erased the funding needs but it also may have spared Pence the embarrassment of potentially failing to qualify for the third Republican primary debate on Nov. 8. As of Friday, four candidates had qualified: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
Pence did not endorse any of his former rivals, but in what was seen as a dig at former President Donald Trump, he said “I urge all my fellow Republicans here, give our country a Republican standard-bearer that will, as Lincoln said, appeal to the better angels of our nature, and not only lead us to victory but lead our nation with civility."
Trump has since asked for Pence’s endorsement, noting that “I made him vice president.” But he also noted that “people in politics are very disloyal” – a swipe at Pence’s refusal in 2020 to disallow electoral votes that had elected Joe Biden.
The other thing Trump has his eye on is his former Veep’s possible testimony at his federal trial on charges he tried to steal the 2020 election from Biden during the Jan. 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill.
While polls show that Trump remains far ahead of the competition for the GOP nomination, his legal woes appear to be his greatest obstacle: Trump is facing four legal proceedings, including one in Georgia on charges of “criminal conspiracy.” If reelected, he might be able to pardon himself of some charges, but not of state-level charges.