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Israel & Hezbollah: What to expect next
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. The Middle East back in the headlines, though fortunately, not as dramatic, a blow-up, as many had feared. This is the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, the Northern front, as it were. And the Israelis had assassinated one of the founders of Hezbollah a month ago, and a lot of concern and waiting as to what Hezbollah would do to respond. We saw that over the weekend, several hundred missiles being launched from Lebanon into Israel. The United States and Israel with advanced intelligence on the coming strikes, and were able to launch preemptive strikes that apparently took out about two-thirds of the missiles that were going to be launched. But Lebanon, Hezbollah continuing going ahead with those strikes and not a lot of damage. Not a lot of damage by the Israelis with the preemptive strikes. A few military dead in Lebanon, and it looks like one Israeli military officer killed from the Hezbollah strikes.
A couple of points here that are really relevant. First is that there was no civilian targets. There were no government targets. This was all military infrastructure and capabilities from both sides. So even though this is a significant exchange of fire, it is certainly something that is not intended to escalate further. It is meant to be retaliation for Israel's strikes, and then sit and wait and see. The second point is that not only that, we've also seen that this is disentangled from Iran, and we saw that the Israelis, of course, were able to assassinate the political leader of Hamas, Haniyeh, and that was in Tehran on the occasion of the inauguration of the new Iranian president, deeply embarrassing for the Iranians. It's been a month and there's been no Iranian retaliation despite the fact that the Supreme leader and others in the Iranian government structure had said that major strikes were coming within hours, that's not the case.
They are waiting and they are waiting, perhaps, for a target of opportunity, but also clearly not looking to dramatically escalate. And what we're seeing here, and this has become more clear over the last nine months now, ten months of the war, is that the two most powerful antagonists of Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, are really not looking to take any action that could escalate into a broader Middle Eastern war. They are, no question, abiding enemies of Israel. They don't recognize Israel's right to exist, but they also are considerably less powerful than Israel militarily. And they also understand that the United States has coordinated and would coordinate with Israel if we were to see an expansion of hostilities, so they've been very cautious. And that on the one hand, gives Israel a blinking yellowlight feeling like they can take more action against Iranian proxies and as well as inside Iran.
They can take more action against Hezbollah without risking a broader war, but also has, I think, calmed the markets, has helped keep oil prices comparatively low around 80 bucks right now, despite the fact that we have this major war going on in the Middle East. A couple things that I would focus on that makes you feel a little less comfortable than that reality. The first is that there's a very big difference between Hezbollah and Iran who are politically entrenched, have a lot of resources, have the ability to defend themselves, and can live with the status quo for a long time, and Iran's proxies less powerful proxies. And here, of course, I'm thinking specifically about the Houthis, but I'm also thinking about Hamas itself and other terrorist actors. The story that should have gotten a lot more attention was the Houthis blowing up a Greek tanker that led to an oil spill three times greater in volume than what we saw with the Exxon Valdez.
That's a massive problem, and the Houthis are continuing to engage in strikes as they have the opportunity against not only ships of any flag but also against US and UK military targets, so they are much less constrained. They are much more willing to take action that could lead to significant escalation than the Iranians and Hezbollah. Clearly, Hamas was willing to do that on October 7th. They're still willing to do that. They just don't have the military capability. What we haven't seen, thankfully, is a lot of radical Islamic terrorism against Israeli targets or Western targets in the Middle East or more broadly, but certainly to the extent that they have those capabilities, one would expect that to happen as well, so that's one significant caution here. A second is that right now if Hezbollah were to engage in large-scale strikes against Israel, they would have the ability to overwhelm Israel's defenses, the Iron Dome, and missile defenses, and therefore kill an awful lot of Israelis.
In other words... And then of course, Hezbollah would itself get destroyed, and we'd have a major war between Israel and Lebanon that the Americans would likely get involved in, at least indirectly, maybe directly. Nobody wants that. But the fact that Hezbollah has that capacity should in principle, constrain the Israelis in terms of what they are and aren't willing to do against Hezbollah. Now, Israeli military leaders are talking a lot about a new military system called Iron Beam, which is supposedly coming online in Israel next year. And that system should be able to defend Israel against far, far greater numbers of simultaneous missile strikes, drone strikes from Hezbollah. Over 95% of inbound would be taken out. In other words, Hezbollah would no longer have the capability to overwhelm Israeli defenses. Certainly, one would think that would change Israel's willingness to take action against Hezbollah without concern that they would be facing a dangerous retaliation.
And so the question is, does that change the decision-making process, the calculus of Hassan Nasrallah and his advisors who run Hezbollah? In other words, is the next six, twelve months becoming much more dangerous between Hezbollah and Israel because the balance of power is changing? We talk about Russia-Ukraine. Part of the reason the war hasn't changed very much over the past six months is because the balance of power hasn't been changing. This is potentially dangerous in the Middle East, and it's worth greater focus than I think the northern front has gotten over the past few months, especially because it continues to look very unlikely that we're going to have an agreed-to ceasefire in the near future. So that's where we are.- Ian Explains: How Hezbollah became so powerful in Lebanon ›
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Podcast: Will Israel's war spread north? The view from Lebanon with Kim Ghattas
Transcript
Listen: How likely is it that the Israel-Hamas war spreads into a wider conflict in the Middle East? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Beirut-based journalist and analyst Kim Ghattas for the on-the-ground perspective from across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
Clashes between Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group, have been increasing on the border since the October 7th Hamas attacks, and tensions in the region are extremely high. There’s a lot of anxiety in Lebanon right now about the potential for an Israeli strike, Ghattas explains, because of its history of Israeli invasion and the strength of Hezbollah, which has some 150,000 rockets and heavy duty weapons. Given that Lebanon is a country already reeling from economic collapse, a refugee crisis from Syria, a deadly 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut, and a massive currency devaluation, the consequences of war spreading across the Israeli border would be devastating for the country. Can diplomacy help lower tensions in the Middle East before simmering tensions boil over?
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Hezbollah militants take an oath as they stand near the coffin of their colleague who was killed in clashes with Israeli soldiers in south Lebanon
Hezbollah: What is it?
In the weeks since Israel responded to Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attacks with airstrikes and a planned ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, a lot of attention has focused on Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese militant group that has threatened to enter the conflict to support Hamas.
Here’s what you need to know.
What is Hezbollah? It is a Shiite revolutionary militant and political group based in Lebanon. The name of the organization means “Party of God” in Arabic. It operates extensive social services and media networks, and it enjoys widespread support among Lebanon’s large Shiite population. Its political wing has held seats in Lebanon’s parliament for more than 30 years.
Hezbollah’s militant wing has carried out attacks against US, Jewish, and Israeli targets in the region and globally. Hezbollah enjoys strong backing from Iran as well as from Syria, and it is considered a terrorist group by the US, Israel, and several European countries.
Where did Hezbollah come from? It was formed in the early 1980s during Lebanon’s brutal civil war, as a paramilitary force representing the country’s Shiite community. From the start, Hezbollah received strong support from Iran, a Shiite theocracy, and built a broad network of social services and media assets, particularly in Shiite-majority south Lebanon.
At the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990, Hezbollah was the only Lebanese faction permitted to keep its arms. For 10 more years, it waged guerrilla warfare against Israeli forces that had occupied south Lebanon during the civil war. Israel finally withdrew in 2000.
What does it want? Hezbollah seeks to expel Israel and the US from the Middle East and to advance the interests of Lebanon’s large Shiite population within the country’s sectarian political structure.
How heavily armed is it? The group has been called “the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor.” It is believed to have more than 100,000 rockets and missiles, including powerful anti-air, anti-tank, and anti-ship munitions.
Have Hezbollah and Israel ever fought a full-scale war? Yes, a 2006 Hezbollah kidnapping raid into northern Israel provoked a major conflict. The fighting lasted more than a month, drawing in the Lebanese army, and both of the kidnapped Israeli soldiers were killed. Israel pounded Lebanon with airstrikes, killing more than 1,000 Lebanese, but was unable to dislodge Hezbollah.
What does Iran have to do with this again? Iran strongly supports Hezbollah as a proxy group and has transferred billions of dollars of equipment, training, and other support to the group over the years. During the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah fought on behalf of dictator Bashar Assad, who is backed by Iran. This meant Hezbollah clashed against various Sunni jihadist groups, including the Islamic State group, and gained valuable combat and intelligence experience.
What is Hezbollah’s relationship with Hamas? Although Hezbollah is a Shiite group, and Hamas is Sunni, the two groups share the goal of eradicating Israel, and they maintain very close relations.
What is happening right now between Israel and Hezbollah? Since Oct. 7, Hezbollah and Israel have had only limited exchanges of fire, but civilians are being evacuated from near both sides of the border amid fears of a regional escalation. Hezbollah has promised an “earthquake” for Israel if PM Benjamin Netanyahu orders a full-on ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.
Members of Hezbollah take part in the funeral of Hezbollah member Abbas Shuman
Will Hezbollah enter the Israel-Hamas conflict or not?
It’s not quite the $64 million question, but it sure is the “100,000 rockets-and-missiles” question, as that’s the estimated size of the powerful Lebanese militant group’s current arsenal.
Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran and has close ties with Hamas, has threatened an “earthquake” if Israel launches a full-scale ground invasion of the Gaza Strip as part of the ongoing response to Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist rampage in southern Israel. And recently, Hezbollah and Israeli forces have exchanged a patter of cross-border fire, while civilians on both sides of the frontier have been evacuated.
Why would Hezbollah get involved in the conflict? It wouldn’t be to defeat Israel militarily, something that even the powerfully armed Hezbollah has no realistic chance of doing. Rather, the aim would be to draw Israel into a conflict in the north that makes it impossible for the Israel Defense Forces to fully focus on destroying Hamas in the south. Keeping Hamas afloat is an important objective for the broader, Iran-backed anti-Israel axis in the region, according to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, who has studied Hezbollah for years.
“If there were no longer a Palestinian component of this axis,” he says, “Hezbollah itself would become much more exposed and at risk with Israel.”
But it’s a trickier calculus than you might think. Any conflict would risk a crippling backlash from Israel that could increase the suffering of millions of Lebanese already mired in a years-long economic crisis. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu drove that point home over the weekend, warning of “devastation” if Hezbollah moves in. Since Hezbollah’s political wing has seats in the Lebanese parliament, this is something the group has to consider alongside the regional and strategic considerations.
“The most ideal situation for Hezbollah,” says Maksad, “is to be wielding the threat of force against Israel without actually having to use it.”
For more information about Hezbollah, check out our primer here.
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Will Israel's war with Hamas spread north to Lebanon?
In Beirut, a little over 50 miles from the Israeli border, there are few signs of the violent conflict capturing the world's attention. At least for now. Further south, there have been almost daily exchanges of rocket fire between the Israeli Defense Forces and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that dominates southern Lebanon and is a regional power in its own right.
Fear is growing, even in the north, that the war between Israel and Hamas could spill over into a broader regional conflict, GZERO's Fin DePoncier reports from Beirut. But Lebanon is reeling from its own internal struggles–It suffered a devastating economic collapse in 2019 that was exacerbated by the 2020 pandemic and a deadly explosion at the Port of Beirut that caused billions in damage. It's also politically paralyzed; its divided parliament hasn't been able to elect a president since Michel Aoun left office in 2022.
DePoncier is in Beirut to hear from its diverse population about what they think about their country's precarious position and what it would mean if Lebanon gets dragged into Israel's war with Hamas. Some people see themselves as entirely removed from the conflict, others would pick up arms to fight, but everyone is bracing for the worst. For now, all eyes are on Hezbollah and the southern border.
Watch more about the situation in the Middle East on the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
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