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Erdoğan, NATO & why Turkey's presidential election matters
Turkey's presidential election is on May 14, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not guaranteed to remain in power. How might that impact NATO?
If Erdoğan loses, "it'll matter a lot" for both Turkey and NATO, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder says in a GZERO World interview with Ian Bremmer. Erdoğan's opposition is campaigning on a pro-Western platform, and once in power, Turkey could once again become a helpful alliance member, stop using its veto power so frequently, and finally allow Sweden to join NATO.
"It'll always be there. It's a strategic country in that region," Daalder explains, "but we won't doubt anymore where its bona fides lie."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Russia vs. NATO: Heightened risk of war
- The man who could beat Erdogan ›
- How Turkey’s Erdoğan responds to quake could impact his reelection chances ›
- What We’re Watching: Israel’s mass anti-corruption protests, Sweden’s NATO own goal, Germany's mixed signals ›
- Swedish NATO bid caught in Erdoğan reelection effort ›
- Erdogan health mystery - GZERO Media ›
- Kremlin drone attack a huge embarrassment for Putin - GZERO Media ›
- Erdogan likely to win Turkish election - GZERO Media ›
Swedish NATO bid caught in Erdoğan reelection effort
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.
How is the process of accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO going?
Well, it's green light for Finland. After ratification by Hungary and Turkey, they've been playing some games, but now green light. Good, excellent. Sweden, they are still holding out. I think President Erdoğan sees this as an asset in his election campaign. There have been some issues with Sweden. I think they have been sorted out, but now it's a question of the politics of Turkey. President Erdoğan, of course, faces an extremely critical election May 14, first round his entire regime's up for grab, and he's holding Sweden hostage in a way that is not entirely good for the security of Europe.
What’s happening in the Mediterranean with refugees?
Well, that's a worrying situation. There have been three times as many refugees, migrants arriving across the Mediterranean to Italy the first few months of this year as last year. There's talk of 900,000 coming this year on planes and trains. There's a very disturbing and difficult situation in Tunisia, both in economic and political terms. Many are coming from Tunisia, but many are coming through Tunisia as well. Clearly it's an unsustainable situation. Can things be done in order to get things better on shape in Turkey? Can there be more solidarity in the European Union helping Italy? These are important question that needs answers.
- Finland’s next step ›
- What We’re Watching: Israel’s mass anti-corruption protests, Sweden’s NATO own goal, Germany's mixed signals ›
- What We’re Watching: Blinken’s Middle East chats, Erdogan’s bid to split Nordics, Peru’s early election, China offers baby incentives ›
- Europe plays the blame game over asylum-seekers ›
- What obligations do rich nations have when it comes to refugees? ›
China responds to US provocations: US/China relations further strained
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the US respond to China's saber-rattling?
Well, I mean, in part, China's saber-rattling is a response to what the United States has already been doing. In particular, significant export sanctions that are not really about competition. They're really about containment of China in some of the top areas of economic development, technological development that they are trying mightily to be world leaders at. There is a level of direct confrontation that the Americans are pushing on and the Chinese are now increasingly public. I thought that it was interesting that Xi Jinping decided to make those statements about the United States directly. He usually defers to the so-called wolf warriors, some of the members of the press so this is getting chippier and the ability to maintain and manage a calm and engaged, interdependent US- China relationship is getting harder. There's, as they say, downward pressure on that call going forward.
Is the US about to ban TikTok?
I don't think so. I mean, if by ban you mean that literally young people will no longer be able to access it, I would be surprised by that. I think it's possible that TikTok will be forced to either put in into a different management company, have different rules set, or maybe even spin off. It's American operations so that the data no longer can go to the Chinese government. I think that there might be a lot of pressure to do something like that, but I think the level of use and support in the United States for TikTok, just how insidious it is among young people just, as you know, other social media sites are for older Americans make it very hard to actually ban it in the United States. And I just don't think there's enough cohesion on that, even though generally there's a lot of bipartisan agreement in taking a tougher stand against China.
Will "Turkey's Gandhi", as they call them, be able to defeat Erdoğan?
Here we are talking about the head of this Republican People's Party, the CHP. It's taken them a long time for the opposition to agree to a single unified candidate to go after Erdoğan and Erdoğan is pushing up elections to May. The talk, of course, is still overwhelmingly about the earthquake and the cleanup and let's keep in mind, no free press anymore in Turkey. Turkish government has much more control over it, NGO's ditto. It is just a much more hybrid political system as opposed to a free and fair democracy and that includes the way that the election is run. I think that there is an actual chance that Erdoğan will be unseated, but it looks more like a Hungarian election than it does an American or Brazilian or Mexican election. What I mean by that is not just about fighting over the outcomes, but actually being able to subvert them and for that reason, I'd still be betting fairly heavily on Erdoğan being able to "win" in May.