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US-China trade from 1985-2024
Graphic Truth: The US trade deficit with China, from zero to now
Hard as it is to imagine amid the harrowing US-China trade war these days, there was a time when the two countries hardly did any business with each other.
That time was about 40 years ago, in the mid-1980s.
In those days, China had just barely begun the sweeping economic reforms that would turn a country wrecked by Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution into a new “workshop of the world.” By churning out exports of everything from sneakers and sofas to smartphones and solar panels, China carved out a crucial role in the global economy.
A major moment in China’s trade growth came in the early 2000s when, over objections from US labor unions and industry groups worried about the impact of cheaper Chinese labor on American jobs, the US opened the way for China to join the World Trade Organization.
After that, China became one of the top three US trade partners, a place it has held ever since — occasionally beating out Canada and Mexico for the top spot. The US trade deficit with China — nearly $300 billion last year — is the largest in the world.
Since President Donald Trump’s first term, the US has hit China with tariffs in an effort to rebalance the trade relationship and “decouple” sensitive American industries from a country that most people in Washington now view as a rival.
These efforts have intensified in the early months of Trump’s second term, and the two countries have now imposed triple digit tariffs on each other.
Here’s a look back at how US-China commercial ties grew from nearly nothing into the largest, and now most contentious, trade relationship in the world.
AI in 2025: The "new electricity" could create huge economic growth
Artificial intelligence is no longer a distant vision of the future—it’s here, and it’s transforming the way we live, work, and innovate. At the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, our Global Stage panel brought together some of the world’s brightest minds to discuss the profound impact AI could have on global growth, society, and infrastructure.
Our thought-provoking panel discussion, moderated by Becky Anderson, Anchor & Managing Editor of CNN Abu Dhabi, featured Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Nadia Calviño, President of the European Investment Bank; Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General of the WTO; Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President of Microsoft; and Peng Xiao, CEO of G42. They shared unique insights into the opportunities and challenges of the AI revolution.
We’ve entered a new phase of the AI conversation, moving beyond debates over whether it will save or destroy humanity. Instead, the focus has shifted to the ways this powerful technology, when used correctly and ethically, can enhance human life. From revolutionizing healthcare and expediting scientific breakthroughs to creating infrastructure investment opportunities, AI holds the potential to contribute up to $20 trillion to global GDP over the next five years.
Geopolitical competition is also heating up. While the US-China rivalry dominates headlines, the Middle East—particularly the UAE—is emerging as a significant player in the AI space with increasing investments and innovations.
As Microsoft's Brad Smith noted during the expert panel discussion, AI could become as essential as electricity. However, ensuring its benefits are equitably shared across all societies is vital. Achieving this requires collaboration between governments, multilateral organizations, and private sector leaders.
Watch the full discussion now for our panel's insights on AI's future, and how it is expected to transform our economy society by 2030.
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From Davos: Watch our Global Stage discussion on the AI economy
At this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, our Global Stage panel discussion, "The AI Economy: An Engine for Local Growth", will examine AI’s growing global impact, the potential for enormous benefits to society, and the investments necessary to ensure equitable diffusion and adoption of AI tools. As artificial intelligence continues to reshape economies, its potential to drive massive growth is undeniable. The International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that through 2030, AI will contribute $19.9 trillion to global GDP and drive 3.5% growth. However, realizing this potential requires careful attention to how and where AI expands, and who is included in its growth.
Watch the live premiere now at gzeromedia.com/globalstage.
Participants:
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Nadia Calviño, President, European Investment Bank
- Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director General, World Trade Organization
- Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President, Microsoft
- Peng Xiao, CEO, G42
- Becky Anderson, (moderator) Host of CNN Connect and Managing Editor of CNN Abu Dhabi
This livestream is the latest in the Webby-nominated Global Stage series, a partnership between GZERO and Microsoft that examines critical issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society.
Live premiere: Wednesday, January 22 at 11 AM ET/ 5 PM CET
- Ian Bremmer and Amina Mohammed on the promise and peril of AI ›
- Tech accord on AI & elections will help manage the ‘new reality,’ says Microsoft’s Brad Smith ›
- Davos 2024: China, AI & key topics dominating at the World Economic Forum ›
- Ian Explains: How will AI impact the workplace? ›
- Davos 2024: AI is having a moment at the World Economic Forum ›
Crisis at the WTO: Fixing a broken dispute system
The appeals body of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is like the Supreme Court for global trade. But it’s fundamentally broken: it hasn’t been able to hear any cases or issue decisions since 2019.
The US has blocked new appointments of WTO appeals judges under the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, complaining that the organization’s rules have hurt US jobs and industry while it lets China protect its massive domestic market from foreign competition. Until WTO reform happens, the US says, it will block any new judges from sitting on the appeals bench.
Without a minimum of three appeals judges, the WTO can’t resolve disputes. And that’s a major problem for the world’s only international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. But there may be hope in sight.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said she is hopeful the dispute settlement impasse will be resolved by the WTO's 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) in February 2024.
“[The United States] are not the only ones who have problems with the system. Developing countries also find it difficult to access,” Okonjo-Iweala says, “So let’s take all these complaints, reform system, and make it useful for everyone.”
Watch the full interview: World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Climate change is "wreaking havoc" on supply chains
Climate change is disrupting industries around the world, and that has a major impact on global trade. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala lays out the case for diversifying and decentralizing production around the world to build resiliency and reduce risk in global supply chains.
“Climate change is wreaking havoc in so many places,” Okonjo-Iweala says, “If you concentrate your production in any one place, you risk really disrupting things.
The WTO Chief argues that by trading some of the “just-in-time” efficiency of global supply chains for resiliency, we can reduce the risk of climate disruption as well as the geopolitical risk of labor being contracted in a single country, like China.
“You see what is happening all over the world?" Okonjo-Iweala asks. "We do need to diversify if we want to build resilience.”
Watch the full interview: World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Is the global food crisis here to stay? ›
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- The Graphic Truth: The great supply chain squeeze ›
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- What Africa has to say about climate change ›
- The Graphic Truth: Has climate change hurt or helped farmers? ›
- Ian Explains: Can we save the planet without hurting the economy? - GZERO Media ›
- "Climate is a problem, not the end of the world" - Danish author Bjorn Lomborg - GZERO Media ›
- Can the world run on green energy yet? Author Bjorn Lomborg argues that's very far off - GZERO Media ›
Africa's economy could rival China or India, says WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
The African continent has a population of 1.4 billion people, but it imports more than 90% of its medicines and 90% of its vaccines. WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala says the time has come to open up the continent to globalization and encourage businesses to invest in African countries.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Okonjo-Iweala makes the case for decentralizing and diversifying global trade to open up new markets, bring Global South countries into the mainstream of the world economy, and reduce reliance on any one country for crucial goods and services.
Africa hasn’t yet globalized, but when it does fully integrate into the world economy, it could create a domestic market of over a billion people that rivals that of China and India.
“Africa has about 3% of world trade, and that’s too small,” Okonjo-Iweala says. “When, not if, that experiment really gets going of Africans integrating better with themselves and trading, that is automatically very attractive for trade for the world.”
Watch the full interview: World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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World trade at risk without globalization, warns WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to talk about world trade, the complicated business of moving goods and services across borders around the world.
Global trade hit a staggering $32 trillion in 2022 and the World Trade Organization oversees 98% of it. It’s an international institution that doesn’t normally make headlines, but has a massive role in almost every aspect of your daily life—from the food you eat, to the clothes you wear, to the cars you drive, to the phone you’re probably using to watch this video.
The WTO is the referee of global trade, a place for countries to negotiate agreements and resolve disputes. But it’s also received criticism for being too slow to adapt to the modern economy and for favoring wealthy nations over countries in the Global South.
Okonjo-Iweala has been pushing members to recommit to the principles of globalization and invest in developing economies.
“It's not right that 10 countries export 80% of the vaccines in the world,” Okonjo-Iweala says, “It's too concentrated.”
She argues that by decentralizing and diversifying global supply chains, we can make the global economy more resilient, reduce monopolies, and bring countries left on the margins of world trade into the mainstream.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Episode 4: Broken (supply) chains ›
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- Climate change trade wars ›
- Hard Numbers: German far right comes up short, Ukraine dreams of drones, a space rock arrives on earth, world trade slows ›
- Women in power — the World Trade Organization's Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala ›
- What Africa has to say about climate change ›
- The Graphic Truth: Has climate change hurt or helped farmers? ›
- Crisis at the WTO: Fixing a broken dispute system - GZERO Media ›
- Navigating global trade during uncertain times - GZERO Media ›
- AI can reduce trade costs, says WTO's Ngozi Okonojo-Iweala - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: Calling for the "reglobalization" of trade: WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Listen: Ian Bremmer sits down with World Trade Organization Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the first woman and first person from Africa to lead the organization, for a conversation about the good, the bad, and the future of global trade on the GZERO World podcast.
In the last half century, globalization has dramatically increased economic output, created hundreds of millions of jobs, and lifted millions of people out of poverty. But development between countries has been uneven, and global inequality is on the rise. Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine disrupted exposed weaknesses in the supply chain. And rising tension between the US and China has led to a world economy that’s becoming increasingly fractured.
But is the way out of a crisis not less trade, but more? How do we make sure the future of trade is fair to countries in the Global South, who are reeling from runaway debt and bearing the brunt of climate change?
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