Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Iran's right to self-defense: VP Mohammad Javad Zarif
Is the shadow war between Israel and Iran officially out in the open? Iran launched a wave of ballistic missiles into Israel Tuesday night, calling the attack a response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in Lebanon last week. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps also said the attack was retaliation for the killing of Hamas’s political leader, Ismael Haniyeh, assassinated while visiting Tehran last July, as well as Israel’s April attack on an Iranian embassy in Syria, which killed an Iranian commander.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer spoke with Iran’s Vice President of Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif on September 25, days before Nasrallah’s assassination and Iran’s missile response. Zarif, who served as Iran’s foreign minister until 2021, made it clear that Tehran had a right to defend itself and warned Iran could respond to Israel at any time. Zarif said that Iran had, up to that point, shown restraint in order to avoid being “dragged” into a wider war, which he claimed would play into Israeli interests.
“[Israel] thrives on tension, on conflict, and we will not provide it to them,” Zarif said less than a week before Iran fired missiles into Israel’s territory, “But that doesn’t mean we will fail to defend our territory, our people, and our guests.”
Watch Ian Bremmer’s full interview with Vice President Zarif on GZERO World beginning this Friday, October 4. Check local listings.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Israel strikes: Why Hezbollah remains silent
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A quick take to kick off your week. We are talking about the Middle East and the significant escalation in Lebanon primarily that has so far culminated with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and most of Hezbollah's senior leadership, with virtually no response by Hezbollah against Israel. Lots of things to think about here.
First is the fact that Israel's asymmetric military and intelligence capabilities really matter. For a long time, people have talked about the potential of existential threats against Israel. It certainly does not appear that way today, and in fact, it shows just how asleep at the switch the Israeli defense forces and more important leadership were back on October 7th in terms of border security, in terms of ignoring intelligence, in terms of most of the IDF being redeployed to the West Bank as opposed to Gaza, that allowed Hamas to pull off this spectacular and horrific terrorist attack against the Israeli citizens, killing over 1,000.
In today's environment, the ability of the Israel military to strike their enemies with virtual impunity, and with virtually no capacity for them to strike back effectively against Israel, is what's really dramatic here, and that's led to a few things in the region. First, it's led to the ability of Prime Minister Netanyahu to gain a lot of popularity. He was blamed for the October 7th attacks, for them happening on his watch, for him not being capable of defending Israel back then. Today, it's a very different story. It's being able to destroy Hamas, irrespective of the civilian consequences for the Palestinians there, it's his ability to take on and decapitate Hezbollah and Israel post-October 7th has taken virtually no hits as a consequence. That's led Netanyahu's former adversary, political opponent, Gideon Sa'ar, former Minister of Defense, to join Netanyahu's government, join his cabinet and their New Hope Party.
It means that if there were new elections today, a good chance... There's always a of coalition formation because it's a very fragmented political party system, but much easier to imagine that Israel's Prime Minister would be able to win a new election today, as opposed to the absolute thumping he would've taken over the course of the last year. It's a very different environment, and the fact is that the Israeli population supports these wars, and I say that really across almost the entire political spectrum. They support the war in Gaza, they support the attacks against Hezbollah, they support getting their citizens back into their homes in the north, there's some 60,000 that have been evacuated, and they do not support a two-state solution for the Palestinians, virtually none of them.
That is, of course, very, very different from pretty much everyone else in the world who does support territorial integrity and self-determination for the Palestinians, but they don't have the ability or the willingness to make that happen, and certainly none of Israel's friends are prepared to truly cut off Israel. We've seen the Brits stop with a few of the weapons systems, we've seen some targeted sanctions, tiny, from the Europeans and the Americans against Israel. But the military aid, the weapons sales, the trade, that all continues as it has. And by the way, that's also true in terms of the Abraham Accords, the Gulf states that have been working with the Israelis and others in the Arab world, they're very unhappy about what's happening on the ground in the Middle East, but they're also not prepared to change their relationship with Israel.
So where else does this go? Does this mean all-out war with Hezbollah? I don't think so, and I say I don't think so because I don't think Hezbollah has that capability. They do have men that are far better trained than Hamas; they have about 10 times the numbers of missiles and delivery systems than Hamas ever had, though a lot of them have been destroyed clearly, and certainly their leadership is gone. But even if they were to launch everything they had against Israel, it's hard to see them doing much damage. They could kill some Israelis, no question, but probably not that many, and they certainly couldn't do any real damage to the Israeli defense forces or the Israeli government. Meanwhile, Hezbollah would be utterly destroyed and the Lebanese economy would be in shambles. So it's hard to imagine any Hezbollah leadership, even a more hardline, hard as that is to imagine, leader of Hezbollah than Nasrallah taking those steps against Israel.
That then leads the bigger question, which is, okay, so the Axis of Resistance has been engaging in attacks, Red Sea, we'll see more of that from the Houthis, potshots at Americans, British military in the region, not very effective, some missiles against Israel, not very effective. What about Iran, might the Iranians do anything. Answer here, no. I spent an hour last week with the Iranian Vice President, Javad Zarif, and he made it very clear that his country, his government, is not going to fall into the, as he called it, Israeli trap, that they want nothing more than Iran to engage in what would be ineffective strikes against Israel that would bring the Americans into the war against Iran, that they are not going to take that bait.
And you'll remember, lest you think this is just propaganda, that back in the Trump administration when Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian defense forces, was assassinated, so not so different than Israel taking out Hassan Nasrallah, the Iranian response was virtually nothing. Rhetoric, but no efforts to go after the Americans because they just didn't have the capabilities, and that's what we're seeing with the Iranians vis-a-vis Israel today. Now, the bigger question is whether Bibi Netanyahu, on a roll in the region, decides that he's going to go after Iran directly, and there, I think it's a question of their capabilities. The bunker that Nasrallah was in was comparatively easy to hit when you had intelligence that he was there. Yes, bunker-buster bombs, but limited and available to the Israelis.
The incredibly deep underground nuclear program, for example, at Fordow of Iran, under meters and meters of granite reinforced, the Americans are the only ones with the clear capabilities to destroy that. Israel could clearly set back Iran's program, but those kind of strikes would likely only redouble the efforts of the Iranians to build a full nuclear weapons capability, and a glancing blow by Israel, that would antagonize the United States and others and potentially lead to blow-back that Israel hasn't had to face so far, but might, that they wouldn't like; that's a risk that I think is greater than Israel would want to take, especially for not destroying the Iranian nuclear program, but only a limited amount of damage.
So I think you'd still see espionage, you'll still see sabotage, you'll still see willingness for the Israelis to go after members of the IRGC that they find in Syria, Iraq, other places, absolutely. But direct strikes on Iran, specifically the nuclear program, which is the target that the Israelis are most interested in, that seems like a bigger stretch to me. Not impossible, more likely today than it was a week ago, but still, I think that the escalation that we have been seeing in the war in the Middle East may be close to having played itself out now, simply because Israeli military capabilities are so much greater than that of their adversaries, and their ability to now focus on defense and security makes it more challenging for them to do anything, their enemies to do anything against them.
So anyway, that's where we are right now. I hope everyone's doing well, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
A view shows an explosion following Israeli strikes, in Hodeidah, Yemen, in this screengrab obtained from a social media video released on September 29, 2024.
Israel targets Houthis while Hezbollah looks for new leadership
Israel struck Houthi targets in Yemen on Sunday, including power stations and the seaport of Hodeidah. The offensive came after Houthis fired three missiles at Israel in the past two weeks, signaling Israel’s readiness to engage in a larger regional war against Iranian-backed groups and regimes.
“Our message is clear — no place is too far,”said Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant after the strikes. Nevertheless, US President Joe Biden reiterated on Sunday that an all-out war“has to be” avoided and pledged to speak with Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu.
But Netanyahu already told world leaders at the United Nations on Friday that Israel will “continue degrading Hezbollah” until it is able to secure communities on its border with Lebanon and will continue fighting Hamas until “total victory” is achieved. Netanyahu depicted the conflict as one between Israel and Iran, and said “In this battle between good and evil, there must be no equivocation.”
Who will lead Hezbollah?
Shortly after Netanyahu’s address at UNGA on Friday, an Israeli strike killed longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut. His death leaves a power vacuum that won’t be easy to fill, especially sinceHezbollah’s leadership has been decimated in recent Israeli attacks. Two leading contenders are Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s executive council and Nasrallah’s cousin, and Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991, a longtime Shia activist and close ally of Nasrallah.Hezbollah’s shura council will convene in the coming days to decide who will take the reins.
We’re watching how the expanding war and newly opened power vacuum upset regional stability.
FILE PHOTO: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks during his meeting with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (not pictured) at the Pentagon in Washington, U.S., March 26, 2024.
Israeli leaders visit Washington amid rising tensions
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant traveled to Washington, DC, this weekend to discuss the final phase of Israel’s offensive in Gaza — and to address growing concern over hostilities with the Lebanon-based terror group Hezbollah.
Since Hamas’ attacks of Oct. 7, Hezbollah has ramped up its rocket and drone attacks on Israel, forcing the evacuation of northern border towns. Now, as Israel targets the last Hamas strongholds in Gaza, the concern is that the conflict could shift north to Lebanon.Last Wednesday, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah posted a video threatening to destroy key Israeli infrastructure with missiles if they are attacked.
The London Sunday Telegraph reported a significant increase in Iranian shipments of rockets to the group via Beirut's Rafic Al Hariri International Airport. “We are prepared for any action in Gaza, Lebanon, and more areas,” Gallant said before meeting US officials this week.
Netanyahu’s DC drama. Meanwhile, the politics are becoming increasingly perilous on Capitol Hill. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to address the US Congress on July 24, and many Democrats are conflicted about whether to attend. After Bibi released a video last week chastising Washington for withholding military aid – the US has only withheld one shipment while providing $12 billion in aid since Oct. 7 – some fear furthernegativity about US support for Israel from Bibi could complicate Biden’s reelection campaign.Hezbollah’s dwindling reputation
"Here is Lebanon, not Iran," Lebanese chanted last October, when widespread protests calling for reform of Lebanon's dysfunctional sectarian power-sharing system broke out across the country. It was a war cry meant to expose the destructive role of Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite group, in Lebanese politics in recent years.
Now, recent events — including the deadly explosion at a Beirut port earlier this month that killed at least 200 people and wounded thousands, as well as the country's economic tailspin — have again shined a spotlight on the role of Hezbollah within Lebanese politics and society.
What is Hezbollah, and why does it matter?
The (brief) origin story. The Hezbollah militant group, made up of the country's traditionally-marginalized Shiite Muslims, emerged amid Lebanon's bloody 15-year civil war (1975-1990).
The guerilla organization's goal was two-fold: push out Israeli troops stationed in southern Lebanon, and stop the US (and the West more broadly) from meddling in the Middle East. At the time, the nascent Islamic Republic of Iran, a Shiite theocracy which came to power in 1979, saw an opportunity to expand its clout by infusing Hezbollah with cash and weaponry — a budding partnership that flourishes till this day.
A state within a state. After the end of the civil war, Hezbollah expanded its influence over Lebanese politics and public life, with strong support from the country's Shia community. The party has held cabinet posts since 2005, and has built a network of social services including hospitals and schools that's helped the group amass increasing public support.
An unexpectedly strong stand against Israel during a brief war in 2006 also burnished the organization's image in Lebanon. In parliamentary elections held in 2018, Hezbollah's Shiite alliance together won 70 out of 128 parliamentary seats, the most seats won by any political bloc.
Hezbollah is the most powerful military force in Lebanon. Thanks largely to longstanding Syrian and Iranian support, Hezbollah has managed to stash hundreds of millions of dollars, and build up military power stronger than that of the Lebanese army. The group also directly controls large swaths of Lebanese territory, some of which it seized by force in 2008.
But as Hezbollah has emerged as Lebanon's most powerful political and military force, it is now also a major target for the outrage that has been directed against the country's entire ruling class. As the situation in Lebanon continues to deteriorate, the group is even losing some support from traditionally-loyal Shiite constituents.
There are several reasons for the group's fading reputation.
Hezbollah is an impediment to the country receiving desperately-needed international aid. International donors, including the IMF, have made financial aid to Lebanon contingent on political reform. While, Hezbollah is not the only political party that's been hostile to reform, the international community's ability to give aid to a government in which Hezbollah is a major player is obstructed by the fact that the group has been designated as a terrorist organization by powerful countries including the US, Germany, and the Gulf Arab states because of its long history of attacks against Israeli, Jewish, and Western targets.
Washington's recent accusation that Hezbollah is in fact "jeopardizing Lebanon's economic recovery" has surely resonated with a growing number of disgruntled Lebanese who can barely afford to put food on the table. In recent days, protesters in central Beirut burned effigies of the Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, the most public rejection of the leader to date.
Many Lebanese are tired of Hezbollah's international escapades. As half the population has now slid into poverty, an increasing number of Lebanese are questioning why Nasrallah has devoted attention (and resources) to foreign entanglements in Syria and Yemen (at Iran's bidding) when Lebanon itself is on the brink.
What gives? Though anti-Hezbollah sentiment is soaring, there are still compelling reasons why the group could hold onto power — even as the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate. For one, Hezbollah has a huge cache of guns and rockets that could be used on defectors should it feel its grip on power slipping. Additionally, the Lebanese army is made up mostly of Shiites, over whom Hezbollah also has significant influence.
Indeed, Hezbollah is a deeply immovable presence in Lebanon increasingly at odds with an unstoppable force for political change. Who will prevail?