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Annie Gugliotta

Hold us accountable: Our biggest calls for 2023

Every year, Eurasia Group releases its Top 10 geopolitical risks for the year ahead. You’ll see the 2024 edition next Monday. But an honest analyst looks back at past forecasts to see (and acknowledge) what he got right and wrong, and I’m going to do that here and now.

Here’s the 2023 full report. To remind you, our Top 10 risks for 2023 were:

  1. Rogue Russia
  2. Maximum Xi
  3. Weapons of Mass Disruption
  4. Inflation shockwaves
  5. Iran in a corner
  6. Energy crunch
  7. Arrested global development
  8. Divided States of America
  9. TikTok boom
  10. Water stress

Let’s take these one at a time …

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Global Stage: Global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society
Global Stage: Global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society | GZERO Media

Global Stage: Global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society

GZERO Media and Microsoft have joined forces to launch Global Stage, a partnership to present conversations about critical global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society.

On location from prestigious events including Davos, Munich, the UN General Assembly, COP, and more, Global Stage takes you to the frontlines of monumental global gatherings, where pivotal dialogues unravel at the crossroads of technology, politics, and society. Watch our live discussions tackling the world's most urgent challenges, featuring respected leaders and experts from both the public and private sectors who illuminate topics from cybersecurity, AI, and climate change to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Stay engaged throughout the year with thought-provoking livestreams, in-depth interviews, compelling podcasts, and more. Welcome to the Global Stage.

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Iraq 20 Years Later
Iraq 20 Years Later | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Iraq 20 Years Later

On the 20th anniversary of the US-led invasion of Iraq, US Senator Tammy Duckworth and NBC's Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel sit down with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to reflect on the legacy of a war that reshaped the Middle East and continues to reverberate around the world.

Senator Duckworth, a former helicopter pilot who lost both her legs in the Iraq War and now sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee. She emphasizes the importance of honoring the promises made to veterans and the impact it has military readiness. "The cost of going to war isn't just the tanks, the guns, the helicopters, and the ammunition during the period of actual conflict," Duckworth says, "The cost of war goes on for many decades."

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War in Ukraine heading to "violent" new phase, warns NATO's Mircea Geoană
War in Ukraine heading to "violent" new phase, warns NATO's Mircea Geoană | GZERO World

War in Ukraine heading to "violent" new phase, warns NATO's Mircea Geoană

Ukraine's military has lasted far longer than anyone expected when the war in Ukraine began one year ago. Much of that success comes down to Ukraine's ability to mobilize the energy of the nation, as well as material support from NATO and its allies. On the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion, GZERO World traveled to the Munich Security Conference and spoke with NATO Deputy Secretary General, Mircea Geoană, for his candid assessment of the state of the war.

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A police officer blocks the street after an explosion on busy pedestrian Istiklal street in Istanbul, Turkey.


Hard Numbers: Istanbul’s explosion, FTX’s downfall, Ukraine’s win in Kherson, Terminal 2F’s farewell

6: At least 6 people were killed and dozens were wounded on Sunday when an explosion rocked a busy district in central Istanbul, Turkey. The cause remains unknown, but the same location was the target of a 2016 suicide attack carried out by an Islamic State affiliate.

900 million: FTX, the major crypto exchange that filed for bankruptcy and is being investigated for potential financial crimes, held just $900 million in saleable assets against a whopping $9 billion of liabilities. Headed by crypto megastar Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX has been accused of unethical business practices. Meanwhile, its downfall has sent crypto and stock markets into a tailspin.

8: For eight months, residents of Kherson – the only provincial capital held by the Russians – were living under the Kremlin’s control, but the province is now firmly in Ukrainian hands after an embarrassing Russian retreat wrapped up over the weekend. Still, Ukrainian authorities have much work to do to restore electricity, water access, and medical supplies in the province.

18: Mehran Karimi Nasseri, an Iranian refugee who made Paris' Charles de Gaulle airport his home for 18 years, died at the airport’s Terminal 2F on Saturday. Nasseri, whose story inspired the film "The Terminal" starring Tom Hanks, was granted refugee status in France and lived at a hostel for a period but recently returned to the airport where he died.

A view shows the city centre without electricity after critical civil infrastructure was hit by a Russian missile attacks, in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine.


Hard Numbers: Ukraine’s battered power grid, Turkey slashes interest rates, the Philippines scraps Russia deal, Black Death’s lingering effects

40: Up to 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been seriously damaged since Russia began its latest bombardment on Oct. 10. The Ukrainian government on Thursday told residents to charge all their appliances ahead of more disruptions to the power grid, which are being felt as far west as Lviv.

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Will Nepal cash out?
Will Nepal Cash Out? | Economic Empowerment | GZERO Media

Will Nepal cash out?

Like much of the world, Nepal saw digital payments soar during the pandemic.

Tulsi Rauniyar, a young Nepalese documentary photographer, experienced the transition firsthand. With COVID making human touch a big concern, e-commerce and cashless transactions became more commonplace — so much so that Rauniyar herself rarely uses cash anymore. This technological globalization is increasingly helping female entrepreneurs and businesswomen succeed in Nepal. But it still needs to reach rural areas — where many hard-working women are unaware of these transformative technologies.

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A shopper pays with a euro bank note in a market in Nice, France, amid sky-high inflation.

REUTERS/Eric Gaillard

Hard Numbers: Eurozone inflation record, Saudi woman sentenced for tweeting, US life expectancy drops, Russia cuts off gas to EU … again

9.1: Year-on-year inflation in the Eurozone’s 19 countries rose to 9.1% in August, up from 8.9% last month. It’s the highest rate on record since the group began recording in 1997, and will put pressure on the European Central Bank to again raise interest rates, raising the likelihood of a recession in some EU countries.

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