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Russia may cut off Europe's gas; sanctions will hold
Russia Will Cut All Gas To Europe By Winter | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Russia may cut off Europe's gas; sanctions will hold

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Will Russia cutting gas sanctions to Europe lead to the EU lifting sanctions?

I don't see it. I've got to tell you, I do think that Russia will cut all of the gas to Europe by winter. It's where their leverage is, but let's keep in mind these are EU sanctions unanimously supported by all EU member states. That means that individual countries that don't like them don't suddenly break from the EU. Would have to come to that agreement. They're not going to. We've gone through seven rounds now. It's quite something. I do think you could see individual European countries start trying to pressure the Ukrainians to get to the negotiating table. Maybe even accept some loss of territory, which the Ukrainians will be very loathe to do. We'll watch that carefully. But the sanctions, the sanctions are not going away. They're not going away at all.

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A shopper pays with a euro bank note in a market in Nice, France, amid sky-high inflation.

REUTERS/Eric Gaillard

Hard Numbers: Eurozone inflation record, Saudi woman sentenced for tweeting, US life expectancy drops, Russia cuts off gas to EU … again

9.1: Year-on-year inflation in the Eurozone’s 19 countries rose to 9.1% in August, up from 8.9% last month. It’s the highest rate on record since the group began recording in 1997, and will put pressure on the European Central Bank to again raise interest rates, raising the likelihood of a recession in some EU countries.

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Your questions, answered: Ukraine lessons for China, Europe’s gas woes, and why onions rule

Your questions, answered: Ukraine lessons for China, Europe’s gas woes, and why onions rule

Happy Friday, everyone!

I’m still in Nantucket so you know what that means… You ask, I answer.

Note: This is the second installment of a five-part summer mailbag series responding to reader questions. You can find the first part here, the third part here, and the fourth part here. Some of the questions that follow have been slightly edited for clarity. If you have questions you want answered, ask them in the comments section below or follow me on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn and look out for future AMAs.

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Europe's heat wave highlights climate & energy dependencies
Italy Elections: Rightist & Center-Right forces Leading Opinion Polls | Europe In :60 | GZERO Media

Europe's heat wave highlights climate & energy dependencies

Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics, from the Adriatic Sea.

What's going to be the fallout of the resignation of the Draghi government in Italy?

Quite substantial. I would suspect, Mario Draghi with his government, very broad government has given Italy credibility both in terms of economic policy management, reform policies, and foreign policy not the least on Ukraine, during quite some time. He was thrown out by the populist and the rightist parties for obscure reasons. And now there will be elections on September the 25th. What's going to come thereafter? We don't know. The rightist and the center-right forces are leading in opinion polls at the moment, but all bets are off.

How is Europe handling the heatwave and the energy crisis?

Yep, that's really what's dominating. The heat wave immediately, of course, primarily in the south of Europe, but it's also in other places, emphasizing the importance of the climate transition. But also all of the issues related to our energy dependence, primarily the gas dependence of Germany and a couple of other countries on Russia, are much of the focus of the politics of Europe in the middle of the summer.

Jess Frampton

Hard Numbers: AUKUS compensation, $5 gas in America, Iran-Venezuela cooperation, counting toes in Zimbabwe

600 million: Australia will cough up $600 million to compensate the French defense company it scrapped a submarine deal with in order to join AUKUS. Le sub snubstrained relations between Canberra and Paris and opened up a can of worms with Beijing.

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A natural gas pipe in from of EU and Russian flags.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic

Europe’s Russian gas dilemma

The EU is preparing fresh sanctions against Russia in response to Ukraine’s accusation of Russian war crimes in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha. The new sanctions will likely build on previous ones, but this time Brussels could (finally) target Russian oil and coal.

In light of these gruesome revelations, EU leaders are now coming under even more pressure to ban Russian natural gas imports. The entire bloc will not agree to that, at least not in the short term. But individual EU member states might.

Lithuania — which seven years ago relied almost exclusively on Russian gas to keep the lights on — announced on Sunday that it has completely weaned itself off Russian imports. Will other EU countries follow suit? It depends, given that some are more dependent on Russian gas than others or are landlocked, which makes it harder to get alternative supplies.

Here are a few arguments for and against.

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Model of a natural gas pipeline in front of EU and Russia flag colors.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic

Hard Numbers: Lithuania cuts off Russian gas, Shanghai mass-testing, food aid reaches Tigray, Costa Rican runoff

1: Lithuania has become the first EU country to stop importing Russian natural gas in response to the war in Ukraine. What a turnaround for the Baltic nation, which in 2015 relied almost exclusively on Russian gas for its domestic needs and is now asking other EU states to follow its lead.

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A Muslim student joins a protest against the recent hijab ban in India's Karnataka state.

REUTERS/Rupak De Chowdhuri

Hard Numbers: Indian hijab protests, Chinese windfall for sub-Saharan Africa, Germany running low on gas, Russian political zoo

3: Hundreds of students took to the streets and blocked roads on Wednesday in Kolkata, India, to protest a ban on wearing the hijab in classrooms in southern Karnataka state. Karnataka previously shut down schools and colleges for three days to ease tensions between Muslims and Hindus over the head covering. (Karnataka is run by the Hindu nationalist BJP Party of PM Narendra Modi, while West Bengal, which is home to Kolkata, is governed by a top Modi critic.)

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