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Prince Andrew – now Andrew Mountbatten Windsor – leaves Buckingham Palace on the day of King Charles' coronation ceremony, in London, United Kingdom, on May 6, 2023.
What We’re Watching: King’s brother loses royal title, Japan-China tensions surround leaders’ summit, Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue
Epstein scandal takes down the king’s brother
Prince Andrew is now just Andrew Mountbatten Windsor, after Buckingham Palace stripped King Charles III’s younger brother of his royal titles on Thursday night. The move was caused by Andrew’s relationship with child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the ex-prince’s alleged relations with the late Virginia Giuffre when she was a teenager. He will also have to leave his royal home in Windsor. Andrew’s public demise began in 2019, when he had a disastrous interview with the BBC – the interview even became a subject of a film. Despite losing his title, Andrew remains eighth in line to the throne. The Epstein scandal has forced major exits in the UK, but not in the US – could that change?
Cordial Xi-Takaichi meeting masks simmering Japan-China tensions
Is Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi the Viktor Orban of the Pacific? While Takaichi said she “spoke frankly” to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday about Beijing’s rare-earth export curbs, aggression in the East China Sea, and human-rights abuses in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, the two leaders also agreed to pursue “constructive and stable ties.” Like her ultra-conservative Hungarian counterpart, Takaichi appears to be building a close relationship with US President Donald Trump while engaging with Beijing – no small feat as tensions heat up in the Indo-Pacific.
Deadly Rio raid becomes national political issue in Brazil
Many of the bodies are still being identified, but the staggering death toll of this week’s raid by police on drug traffickers in a Rio de Janeiro favela has already become hotly politicized. The move against the powerful Comanda Vermelha gang was the deadliest in Brazil’s history: 160 people are dead, including four police officers. Politicians on the right praised the operation, while those on the left – including President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – have denounced traffickers but questioned the effectiveness of violent crackdowns. The issue will surely shape next year’s presidential election, with crime a top concern for voters. Lula recently announced that he will seek a fourth and final term.
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping talk as they leave after a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.
The gaps in the Trump-Xi trade truce
After months of escalating tensions, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade truce at their meeting in South Korea on Thursday.
What was agreed? The two sides each delayed imposing further tariffs, with Trump reducing the overall US tariff rate on China to 45%. China agreed to drop its rare earth export ban, while the US may allow China to purchase advanced semiconductors again. That’s not all: the two countries suspended port fees, China pledged to started buying American soybeans again, good news for American soy farmers who have lost market share to Brazil.
What didn’t the meeting resolve? There was no update on terms for the sale of TikTok to American buyers, and the two sides also didn’t discuss Chinese access to the most powerful US-made microchips. More broadly, Trump and Xi didn’t appear to come to any resolution on Washington’s longer-term issues, such as the US trade deficit with China, concerns about Chinese theft of US intellectual property, or the defense of Taiwan – which the US still supports against Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.
Nuclear tensions start to simmer. The US commander-in-chief announced on Thursday that he had ordered the Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The US hasn’t tested a nuke since 1992, and is party to a 1996 treaty with Moscow and Beijing that bars such actions. Testing is unlikely to start soon, in part because of safety concerns but also because most National Nuclear Security Administration are furloughed right now due to the government shutdown.
What about Ukraine? Trump said that Ukraine “came up very strongly” during the meeting with Xi, but did not elaborate, and gave no indication that the two men had discussed the impact of recent US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers. Chinese refineries – the largest buyers of Russian crude – have reportedly begun to explore alternative sources (read more here).
Scoring the showdown: who won?? “Nobody has the upper hand,” said Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale. “What both sides have instead is an understanding that each is capable of triggering the other’s intolerable pain points – and therefore a path must be struck between them.”
But, Meale added, “China must feel more satisfied than the US about where it is compared to the beginning of 2025,” in part because Beijing has stood up to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and identified a “potent leverage tool through rare earths export controls.”
Overall assessment of the meeting? Trump couldn’t have been more pleased, saying, “On a scale of 1 to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12.”
Meale was a little more equivocal.
“I would put it at a seven out of 10.”
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
President Trump has directly sanctioned Russia for the first time since retaking office, over President Putin's refusal to come to the negotiating table on Ukraine. It's a move aimed at weakening Putin’s war economy, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, but one that could have ripple effects from Beijing to the US gas pump.
Trump is getting tough on Russian oil, but to have a real impact on Putin, he'll likely have to go further, which could undermine his big trade deals and push up gas prices. Here at home, US President Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin who refuses to return to the negotiating table for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump took the surprising step of putting sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, the first time the US has directly sanctioned Russia since he became president. Now, in theory, these sanctions should prevent Russia from selling oil to its two biggest customers, India and China, who together take more than two-thirds of Russia's crude oil exports an important source of income for Putin's war in Ukraine. But as ever, the devil is in the details.
Russia has been facing sanctions and other Western measures to disrupt its crude exports for years now, and it will probably find a way around these new sanctions if the US doesn't keep up the pressure. That means more sanctions will be necessary, not just on Russia, but on its customers. Secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners who have been buying Russian crude would help cut off the flow, but there could be blowback. Sanctions could anger the Indian and Chinese governments, undermining Trump's efforts to secure big trade deals with Beijing and New Delhi.
And even if some or all of Russia's customers decide to stop taking its oil, Trump could feel the pain back at home. The disruptive impact on Russia's crude oil exports could push up oil prices, which would, in effect, raise the price of gasoline in the United States. That means that after this big initial blow, Trump is likely to take it slow. He'll look to India to voluntarily back away from Russian oil to the EU to put on some new sanctions of its own, and finally to Putin to return to the negotiating table or risk tougher sanctions ahead. As ever, Trump will look to accomplish his goals without causing a big shock to oil prices. It's a delicate balancing act that Trump will have to manage as he tries to avoid nasty economic shocks that could undermine his position back at home.
Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on October 24, 2025.
Will Trump’s new Russia sanctions work?
It’s been a tumultuous couple of weeks for US-Russia relations.
Two weeks ago, US President Donald Trump was considering handing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which would allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. But, following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 16, Trump decided to chop the Tomahawk plan, and announced a meeting with his Russian counterpart.
That quickly fell apart, though – reportedly because negotiations over a ceasefire deal had stalled – and by Oct. 23, an agitated Trump announced that he was sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce half of Russia’s oil. This was a step that even the Biden administration refused to take, largely over fears that oil prices would spike, driving up inflation.
Now, combined with Biden-era sanctions on Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz, the US has blacklisted Moscow’s four largest crude producers.
There’s just one problem, per Eurasia Group’s Russia expert Alex Brideau.
“The new US sanctions are most likely insufficient to change Putin’s strategy in the war against Ukraine,” said Brideau. “The full effect will depend, in part, on whether the largest importers of Russian oil, India and China, halt these purchases.”
Will China and India halt purchases? Here’s the thing: they just might. This would be devastating for the Kremlin: the two countries combined currently purchase more than 80% of Russia’s crude exports, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. What’s more, the oil & gas sector is vital to Russia’s government purse – it’s responsible for 30-50% of total budget revenues.
Even absent any pressure from the government to comply or ignore the sanctions, Chinese refiners are already looking elsewhere, per Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale.
“I think there is no chance that China will push its firms to comply with the sanctions for the purposes of improving bilateral relations,” said Meale. “However, their major oil companies have already curtailed purchases due to how the threat of sanctions affects their other international interactions.”
India, meanwhile, has until now resisted Trump’s direct pressure to stop buying Russian oil, in part because it wants Moscow to stay neutral if China-India tensions flare up again. With the new US sanctions in place, though, it could be a different story.
“The sanctions on the two largest Russian oil firms have certainly changed the situation,” said Ashok Malik, partner and chair of The Asia Group’s India practice. “I would expect Russian oil purchases to decline significantly — at least in the medium run — should these measures be carried through.”
It seems the process has already begun: Reuters reported last week that Indian oil refiners are poised to halt purchases of Russian oil.
“A near-total halt in Russian crude imports by late November appears inevitable – not out of political alignment, but because continuing would endanger India’s economy itself,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, told GZERO.
In a sign that the sanctions are already hurting Russian crude firms, Lukoil unveiled a plan yesterday to sell off its foreign assets.
So it looks like Moscow is in trouble? There are signs that the attritional war is starting to take a toll on the Russian economy, which had been remarkably resilient over the first three years of the war. The International Monetary Fund forecast that the Russian economy will expand by less than 1% this year – it grew over 4% in each of the last two years. Inflation has remained stubbornly high at around 8%. And Russians are becoming less optimistic about whether economic conditions are improving in their area, per a Gallup poll.
“Over a longer period of time,” said Brideau, “these trade-offs may become too difficult for the state to manage.”
A stubborn (Moscow) mule. If there is one last reason that Russia will continue this war, it’s Putin. The Russian leader has displayed an extraordinarily high threshold for pain on the battlefield: his army has suffered huge losses and is advancing in Ukraine at a snail’s pace, yet he has shown no willingness to compromise on his main war objectives. He believes that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that NATO shouldn’t be continuing to expand along Russia’s border.
If this high pain threshold applies to economic suffering, too, then these sanctions won’t stop the war any time soon.
“Politically, Putin remains strongly committed to his objectives in Ukraine,” said Brideau. “He is willing to risk the long-term health of the Russian economy to pursue these goals.”
China isn't racing to AGI, why is the US?
US tech firms are focused on beating China in the AI race, but on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Tristan Harris of the Center for Humane Technology argues the two countries have fundamentally different visions for AI's future. While US companies are racing toward developing powerful general intelligence (what he calls “god in a box"), China is deploying AI directly to factories, medicine and industrial production to boost its economic output. Tech firms in the US are driven by venture capital and being the first to reach advanced frontier models, prioritizing speed and scale over solving real-world challenges.
This approach isn’t just misaligned—it’s dangerous. Harris says that we need to change the way we think about AI competition with China on a longer timeline. Deploying more and more advanced AI tools to consumers en masse without safeguards and in ways that degrade mental health and critical thinking, he warns, will ultimately weaken the US. Rather than framing AI competition with China as a race to sheer technological supremacy, he says we should be racing to better deploy AI technology in a way that strengthens our society.
“We beat China to social media. Did that make us stronger or did that make us weaker?” Harris says, “It made us radically weaker. So we're not in a race for technology. We're in a race for who's better at applying and governing it."
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh as East Timor's Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao and Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong look on at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 26, 2025.
Trump’s Asian trade blitz sets up sitdown with Xi
US President Donald Trump kicked off his five-day trip to Asia by signing a raft of trade deals on Sunday with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur. Next, Trump heads to Japan to meet newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Tuesday morning, before sitting down with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. What should we make of Trump’s trip so far, and what can we expect in the week to come?
Deals! Deals! Deals! In Kuala Lumpur, Trump reached agreements that promise to eliminate tariffs on roughly 99% of goods with Thailand, reduce Washington’s $123-billion trade deficit with Vietnam, and secure Malaysia’s agreement not to restrict rare-earth exports to the US. Simultaneously, delegates from the US and China met on the sidelines, producing a preliminary framework for a deal that could pause new American tariffs and Chinese export controls, in preparation for Trump’s meeting with Xi on Thursday.
Tuesday with Takaichi. Next, Trump meets Takaichi, who took office last week. The new Japanese PM is known as a China hawk and has promised to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule, which should please Trump. But she also must follow through on her predecessor’s pledge to funnel $550 billion worth of investment into the US by 2030. Japan is reportedly prepared to offer sweeteners to Trump in the form of increased purchases of US soybeans and trucks. The two countries are also set to sign an agreement to cooperate on advanced technologies including AI, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion.
The main event: Trump and Xi. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies will seek to ease a deepening trade war without ceding ground on critical priorities.
According to David Meale, Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China, the two sides are looking to find a path between each other’s pain points. “In particular, critical minerals need to flow from China to keep advanced industries in the US and elsewhere operating, and certain technologies (especially advanced chips) need to be available to China for its development of emerging technology sectors that are central to its economic blueprint going forward.”
While full details of the Oct. 26 framework are not yet available, both sides aim to make progress on key issues. Trump wants better cooperation from Beijing on stopping the export of fentanyl precursors, as well as further commitments from China to buy US goods, especially agricultural products. Xi, meanwhile, wants to head off Trump’s threats to raise tariffs further and impose fresh export controls on US software exports. And both sides seek a “a final deal” on the sale of TikTok’s operations in the US.
Potential pitfalls. Trump has said he will raise the contentious questions of Taiwanese independence — which the US has implicitly supported despite longstanding Chinese objections — and possibly the detention of Hong Kong media mogul and activist Jimmy Lai. Florida Senator Rick Scott published an open letter urging Trump to press Xi for Lai’s release, and a group of Catholic bishops also has urged his freedom. Lai, who converted to Catholicism in 1997, has become a symbol of Hong Kong’s resistance.
Nonetheless, Meale expects that the meeting will strike a positive tone, due to the respect shown by the two leaders to each other. “Chinese officials believe President Trump is someone with which they can chart a course forward,” he says, “because he is pragmatic and demonstrates respect to President Xi.”
Postscript in Pyongyang? Trump mused this morning about the possibility of extending his trip to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “I’d love to meet with him, if he’d like to meet,” said Trump. “It’s our last stop, so it’s pretty easy to do.”
The dangers of unchecked AI
Companies should be designing their products to maximize productivity, economic output, and military superiority, but instead are racing for market dominance and completely ignoring mental health and other risks, like psychosis and loss of critical thinking. Harris says that ethics around AI get thrown out the window relative to the incentive. And for big tech firms, the ultimate prize is achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), so they need to hook as many users as they can as quickly as possible.
“AI is the most powerful, inscrutable and uncontrollable technology we've ever invented,” Harris warns, “Why are we recklessly racing this out to society psychologically in ways that we definitely don't know what we're doing? This is just stupidity.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
The risks of reckless AI rollout with Tristan Harris
Can we align AI with society’s best interests? Tristan Harris, co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the risks to humanity and society as tech firms ignore safety and prioritize speed in the race to build more and more powerful AI models. AI is the most powerful technology humanity has ever built. It can cure disease, reinvent education, unlock scientific discovery. But there is a danger to rolling out new technologies en masse to society without understanding the possible risks. What if the way we deploy artificial intelligence, Harris argues, isn’t inevitable, but a choice?
The tradeoff between AI’s risks and potential rewards is similar to deployment of social media. It began as a tool to connect people and, in many ways, it did. But it also become an engine for polarization, disinformation, and mass surveillance. That wasn’t inevitable. It was the product of choices—choices made by a small handful of companies moving fast and breaking things. Will AI follow the same path? Is there a path forward where innovation aligns with humanity?
“If we deploy AI recklessly in a way that causes AI psychosis or kids' suicides or degrades mental health or causes every kid to outsource their homework,” Harris warns, “it's very obvious the long-term trajectory of we are going to have a weaker civilization.”
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