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Migrants stand near the border wall after having crossed into the US from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.
US immigration wars look ahead to 2024 election
It's been a big week for US immigration politics.
First, the Department of Justice late Monday followed through on its threat to sue Texas if Gov. Greg Abbot refused to remove a controversial floating barrier along the Rio Grande. Then, on Tuesday, a federal judge in California struck down the Biden administration's new rules for asylum-seekers (yet also issued a stay and gave the government 14 days to appeal, so the policy remains in place until then).
If you're a Republican — particularly an immigration hawk — you probably think that President Joe Biden is weaponizing the DOJ to stop Texas from keeping undocumented migrants out and that a liberal California judge wants to toss a policy that has helped curb illegal border crossings. But if you're a Democrat, Abbott's wrecking ball-sized buoys are an inhumane gimmick that violates federal laws. And if you're a progressive Dem, Biden making it so hard for people to seek asylum in America is illegal and not the only reason arrivals have plummeted.
The battle lines are drawn ahead of the 2024 election. Although arrivals dropped with the demise of Title 42, expect this to be a major campaign issue since Americans still give the president a very low 32% approval rating on immigration. With Congress gridlocked and the Republican-led House targeting Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Biden hopes to escape a border crisis with his signature sticks-and-carrots approach to immigration: deter migrants from entering illegally but offer them a legal pathway for asylum.Graphic of migration statistics and demographics at the US southern border
Graphic Truth: The US Border Before, During, and After Title 42
In anticipation of Title 42’s expiration last week, President Joe Biden sent troops to the US-Mexico border to prepare for the 10,000 migrants that officials warned could start crossing the frontier daily when the pandemic-era policy expired. Fearing that the change in policy would significantly restrict access to the border, many migrants swam across dangerous rivers, scaled border walls, and waited in lines thousands of people long to turn themselves in to US border patrol.
After the policy lapsed, a record-high numbers of migrants were apprehended at the southern border. But the number dropped the following day, and the border has been quiet since. Still, there are large numbers of migrants waiting in Mexico, and the factors driving migrants to the border are not going away just because Title 42 has.
Migrants gather between the primary and secondary border fences
Biden expects chaos at US southern border
After months of political and legal wrangling, the Biden administration will lift Title 42 on Thursday. The pandemic-era immigration policy allowed the US to reject asylum claims on public health grounds.
Biden has sent some 1,500 troops to the southern border to help manage a potential influx of migrants after the Department of Homeland Security warned that as many as 10,000 migrants could arrive at the border each day.
Still, the White House has sought to convey that the easing of this policy does not mean that it will be easier for migrants to enter America via Mexico. So what’s it putting in place instead?
First, it will expand an immigration clause that allows the government to expel anyone who enters the country without a valid legal reason, either by deporting them to Mexico or to their home country and banning them from the US for five years.
Meanwhile, under a January deal, Mexico will absorb 30,000 deportees per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela if the US does the same under a new humanitarian parole program, which would allow people from these four countries to work in the US for two years while their claims are processed. The US, for its part, will accept those who apply via a new app and can prove that they have a financial sponsor in the US. (Many have complained that the app is unreliable and glitchy.) However, if the US fails to follow through on its side of the bargain, the tenuous deal with Mexico could fall through.
Processing centers will be set up in Guatemala, Colombia, and elsewhere to help migrants make asylum appointments. Still, Biden has warned that the situation is “going to be chaotic for a while.”
Migrants wait to be transported by border patrol to a detention center in Eagle Pass Texas, USA.
White House prepares for migrant surge
The Biden administration is preparing to deploy an additional 1,500 troops to the US southern border for 90 days as it anticipates an influx of migrant arrivals at the US-Mexico border. This comes ahead of next week’s lifting of Title 42, a pandemic-era policy that has allowed the US to refuse to process asylum claims on public health grounds.
The White House says those deployed will do administration tasks so that customs officials can focus on fieldwork.
There are two key things to watch. First, how might this impact the ongoing humanitarian crisis? Last week, the Biden administration announced that it will open migration centers in Guatemala and Colombia to help asylum seekers apply for legal pathways into the US, and to stop them from arriving at the US border. But who exactly will be sent there and for how long?
Second, how will this play out politically? This comes at a pivotal moment for Biden, who just last week launched his reelection campaign. Republicans, for their part, will waste no time in using this hot-button issue to cast the president as weak on illegal immigration. Biden is also facing a looming showdown with Republicans over raising the debt ceiling, and concurrent domestic crises won’t play well for an incumbent trying to excite an indifferent electorate.
A heavily damaged residential building hit by a Russian missile in the town of Uman, Ukraine.
Hard Numbers: Russia pummels Ukraine, White House preps for migrant surge, Haiti’s lawlessness, Iranian cleric gunned down, a bad Thai friend
16: At least 16 people were killed Friday when Russia fired dozens of missiles and drones at Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, far away from the active combat zones. Most of the deaths occurred after projectiles hit a residential building in the central city of Uman.
2: The US will open new immigration processing centers in two Latin American countries — Colombia and Guatemala — in anticipation of an influx of migrants attempting to reach the US southern border. After a legal tug-of-war, the COVID-era policy known as Title 42, which has allowed US authorities to expel asylum-seekers on public health grounds, will expire on May 11.
1,674: As security and humanitarian crises deepen in Haiti, the new head of the UN mission there says that 1,674 homicides, rapes, lynchings and kidnappings were reported in the first quarter of this year, up from 692 in the same period in 2022. Gang violence has exploded since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse.
88: Ayatollah Abbas Ali Soleimani, a high-ranking Iranian cleric, was shot dead by a security guard Wednesday as he waited at a bank in the northern province of Mazandaran. Soleimani sits on the powerful 88-person clerical body that will select the next supreme leader. The move shows that anti-regime sentiment is still sky-high despite the fact that nationwide protests sparked by the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini last fall have mostly been quashed.
12: Thai authorities have arrested a woman accused of poisoning 12 of her friends and acquaintances since 2020, allegedly lacing their food with cyanide. Sararat Rangsiwuthaporn was arrested this week after going on a trip with a mate. Spoiler: The woman’s “friend” didn’t return home.Photo composite of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping
What We’re Watching: China’s budding diplomacy, Biden’s border control, Russia’s big plans
What’s next for Russia & China?
Russia and China broadcast their friendship to the world on Wednesday as the West freaked out about the possibility of Beijing turning to arm Moscow’s troops in Ukraine. After meeting Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin said that strong Russia-China ties are “important for stabilizing the international situation.” (A tad rich coming from the guy who upended geopolitics by invading Ukraine a year ago.) Putin also confirmed that Xi Jinping would visit Moscow for a summit in the coming months. Wang, for his part, clarified that while their famous partnership “without limits” is not directed against any other nation, it certainly should not be subject to external pressure. He said both countries support “multipolarity and democratization of international relations” – in other words, not a US-led liberal international order. Still, no matter what Western governments say, the Chinese are not so willing to break ties with the US and its allies, mainly because Beijing's trade relations are too important. Meanwhile, we wonder whether the current status of the Russia-China relationship — friends with benefits but complicated — will blossom into a marriage (of convenience) or end in a bad breakup. What we know for sure is that China is getting more involved in the Ukraine conflict generally. Learn more here.
Biden’s tough new move on immigration
The Biden administration this week unveiled a new hardline immigration plan that will likely come into effect after the current pandemic-era immigration policy, known as Title 42, lapses on May 11. It would then stay in place for two years. Under the measure, first revealed last month, asylum-seekers who cross the US southern border illegally or who fail to apply for asylum in the first country they cross through will be banned from applying for asylum in America. This comes after Biden’s team last month introduced a new policy, whereby migrants from Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, in addition to Venezuela, would be eligible for “parole” – meaning temporary two-year work visas – only if they apply for asylum from outside the US and if they have a US sponsor. The new plan mirrors a similar policy introduced by former President Donald Trump that was ultimately blocked by the courts. Rights groups, citing a potential threat to humanitarian protections, say they will seek legal action again. Biden has been struggling to contain an uptick in migrants arriving at the southern border in recent months – and the subsequent political backlash. But this plan will infuriate the left flank of the Democratic Party whose support Biden needs as the 2024 presidential race gets underway.
Russia looks beyond Ukraine?
Ukraine is not the only piece of former Soviet ground that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin might like to recapture. Belarus, allied with Russia as part of a “union state” since 1999, has seen Kremlin influence within its borders grow since strongman President Aleksandr Lukashenko called on Putin for help with domestic protests that broke out in response to a rigged 2020 election. Lukashenko has so far resisted pressure from Putin to commit Belarusian troops to the war in Ukraine, but he has allowed Russia to use his country as a staging ground for invasion. This week, a consortium of journalists representing Yahoo News, Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung, and other media organizations published a document they say was obtained from inside Putin’s government that details a Russian plan to essentially annex Belarus by 2030. The 17-page report, titled "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus" and completed in the summer of 2021, calls for Russian infiltration of Belarus’ politics, economy, and military. Like Ukraine, Belarus is situated on land that has sometimes been ruled by Moscow, and it serves as a forward buffer against further NATO advance toward Russian borders. It’s also consistent with a Kremlin announcement this week that created uncertainty over Russian recognition of the independence of Moldova, another former Soviet Republic. Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky recently alleged a Russian plan to organize a coup in Moldova.President Joe Biden walks along the border fence during his visit to the US-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas.
What We’re Watching: Biden at the border, Three Amigos Summit, China’s reopening
Biden goes to El Paso
President Joe Biden on Sunday visited the US-Mexico border for the first time since taking office and at a time when he's getting flak from all sides for his immigration policies. Biden did the usual stuff: He toured a busy port of entry, walked along the border fence, and met with officials like Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who chided the president for taking so long to show up — feeding into the Republican narrative that blames Biden for the surge of migrant arrivals in recent months. But the president has also upset the left wing of his Democratic Party after failing to deliver on many of his promises to undo the Trump administration's harshest immigration curbs — especially by being wishy-washy on ending Title 42, a Trump-era rule that allows US authorities to expel asylum-seekers on public health grounds that the Supreme Court is now sitting on. What's more, last week Biden announced that migrants from Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela would be required to apply from outside the US and be punished if they don't. While the president is otherwise benefiting from the GOP's civil war in Congress, his immigration headache won't go away anytime soon.
Biden, AMLO & Trudeau meet in Mexico City
After his border visit, Biden will travel to Mexico City on Monday for the annual meeting of North American leaders known as the "Three Amigos Summit." Of course, there’s an immigration angle: Biden hopes to get buy-in from Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as AMLO, for his “safe third country” policy for asylum-seekers who enter the US through Mexico. Under the scheme, first floated by the Trump administration in 2019, the US would automatically deny asylum to migrants who haven't applied for the same status first in Mexico. That's a non-starter for AMLO because Mexico can hardly protect foreigners from gang violence while its own citizens are fleeing similar violence from drug cartels, as seen by the bloodbath following the arrest of Ovidio Guzmán, son of "El Chapo.” Biden and AMLO will also discuss the surge of fentanyl flowing into the US from Mexico, with the DEA having seized enough pills last year to kill every single American. Finally, Biden and AMLO, along with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau, will attempt to make progress on multiple USMCA trade disputes like GMO corn or rules of origin in the US auto industry.
China opens up, but zero-COVID recovery won’t be immediate
Zero-COVID is now effectively over in China. On Sunday, tens of thousands of people traveled in and out of the mainland as the country finally opened up to the world after almost three years of tough pandemic curbs. As a simple negative COVID test replaced the complicated quarantine requirements put in place by Beijing in early 2020, predictions rolled out for an economic revival in China as well as in those economies that depend on Chinese travelers. But that will take time: Airlines that have shifted their routes away from Beijing will have to pivot back, and certain countries that have put their own restrictions back in place for Chinese travelers over COVID fears will not roll back those policies overnight. Meanwhile, the future of Hong Kong, once Asia’s financial hub, also remains unclear. The megacity has been double-pummeled by COVID restrictions as well as Beijing’s tough national security laws, causing many expat and local talent alike to leave for competitors like Seoul, Singapore, or Tokyo. Now that it’s also open for business and travel, a “new” Hong Kong ruled from Beijing might have to reinvent itself in order to achieve the same economic vibrancy it was famous for.Former U.S. President Donald Trump at a rally in Conroe, Texas.
What We're Watching: Trump's tax returns set to go public, Japan stuns markets, Biden braces for migrant surge, India raises China alarm
Trump's tax returns set to be released
The House Ways and Means Committee voted yesterday to release Donald Trump's tax returns from 2015-2020 — a move the former president’s team has characterized as a politically motivated attack by Democrats in the House, who are set to lose their majority when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3. It may be days before all the filings go public, but committee members revealed late Tuesday that the IRS failed to audit Trump during his first two years as president. A report issued late Tuesday also highlighted some information from the filings, including that Trump had positive taxable income in 2018 — for the first time in more than 10 years — and paid nearly $1 million in federal income taxes that year. But as of 2020? Trump had reverted to reporting negative income … and paid no federal income tax as a result. Democrats on the committee explained that they carefully followed the law with this vote, invoking a century-old statute, but some Republicans say this could lead to increased use of exposing private tax info for political means.
Japan's stealth monetary policy move
The Bank of Japan made heads turn and shocked markets Tuesday when it abruptly announced it would tweak its controversial yield curve control policy. (For all you non-economic nerds out there, this is meant to boost economic growth and fight deflation by keeping the yield of 10-year debt bonds near 0%.) But the policy has arguably been doing more harm than good since Sept. 2021, when inflation started to make a comeback after a decade. Both have helped kill the yen in 2022. What's more, Japan sticks out like a sore thumb among major economies because it has stubbornly resisted calls to raise interest rates to tame inflation. BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda insists that his bond-yield "pivot" doesn't mean Japan will soon ditch its ultra-loose monetary policy to catch up with the rest of the world. Yet it certainly looks like the central bank is moving in that direction — without saying it out loud. "A stronger yen is good politically for [PM Fumio] Kishida and will help lower the cost of energy imports," says Eurasia Group analyst David Boling. "But higher interest rates may hurt lots of zombie firms in Japan that have gotten used to zero interest rates."
Biden throws in the towel on Title 42
There's a big US immigration crisis in the works — and the Biden administration seems to think it can no longer stop it. On Tuesday, the government agreed to halt its legal challenges to the expiration of Title 42, a Trump-era rule that allows US authorities to expel asylum-seekers on public health grounds that's set to expire on Dec. 21. But the White House also asked the Supreme Court, which on Monday issued a temporary stay on the order, to keep it in place until at least after Christmas. The situation is tricky for President Joe Biden, who publicly says he wants to scrap Title 42 — mainly to appease the pro-immigration left wing of his party — but privately fears a surge of migrants at the southern border once the rule is lifted that Republicans will use to slam his administration. That'll never happen if tough-on-border-security Republican governors of southern states get their way with SCOTUS, so things might get ugly if the court sides with Biden. Red states are threatening to send more migrants to blue states, some of which have already declared states of emergency to deal with the influx of asylum-seekers. What happens next? SCOTUS might accept Biden's final extension before scrapping Title 42 or hold off for weeks, even months, to consider Republican challenges. Meanwhile, thousands of migrants across the border in Mexico will remain stuck in a legal limbo.
India talks tough on China
India’s foreign minister has warned that it has scaled up its military presence along the country’s border with China to an unprecedented level. The move doesn’t come as a surprise. As Signalista Waj Khan noted in our Monday edition, India remains ill-equipped to handle the latest round of clashes between Indian and Chinese troops at points along their disputed border. Compounding the problem for India, the front has shifted east in a sign that the conflict is expanding, none of India’s foreign policy moves to punish China seem to have restrained the provocative behavior of Chinese troops, and the perception has grown that India’s government hasn’t done enough to show strength at the border. What’s new is that this month’s resurgence of border violence has given domestic critics of Narendra Modi’s government a chance to call Modi weak on China. In particular, Rahul Gandhi, leader of India's main opposition Congress Party, has warned that Chinese soldiers are preparing for war and "thrashing" Indian soldiers at the border while the Indian government does nothing. We’re watching to see if political pressures inside India push Modi’s government toward an escalation that will trigger more violence.