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Ian Explains: Gaming out the 2024 US election
Ian Explains: Gaming out the 2024 US election | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Ian Explains: Gaming out the 2024 US election

A quarter of Americans believe that the FBI was behind January 6. But as the late New York Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan once said, “You’re entitled to your own opinions, but you’re not entitled to your own facts.” The fact is that President Trump incited the insurrection.

Shared trust amongst Americans is at an all-time low. Public trust in core institutions—such as Congress, the judiciary, and the media—is at historic lows; polarization and partisanship are at historic highs.

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Biden's 2024 prospects slip even as Democrats make gains
Biden's 2024 prospects slip even as Democrats make gains | US Politics In: 60 | GZERO Media

Biden's 2024 prospects slip even as Democrats make gains

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.

How are President Biden's electoral prospects looking?

A year out from the 2024 presidential elections, numerous states throughout the US held elections this week, and Democrats had a pretty good night. A constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion passed in Ohio, and Democrats won the two chambers of the Virginia legislature, a rebuke to Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, who won an unexpected election there just 12 months ago.

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Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities and strengths
Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities | Quick Take | GZERO Media

Biden's 2024 election vulnerabilities and strengths

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week on a Monday here in New York City. And yeah, everyone, everyone talking about those polls, New York Times and Siena showing that Biden is behind Trump, not just in overall popularity, but also specifically in how voters in key swing states will vote. And, of course, that's the Electoral College. That's how you actually get elected president of United States. So, yeah, Biden supporters very concerned about that. But we are a year away, so it is early.

Having said that, a few things that I think are worth paying attention to. Number one, 71% of Americans say Biden, 80-year-old Biden is too old to run for president. Look, very few people actually work regularly with an 80-year-old. So I get it. And in a year's time, I'm fairly confident he's going to be a year older. So this is not something that Biden can do much of anything about. And there is material downside. Having said that, Biden is more obviously aging physically where intellectually, you know, one one-on-one in small meetings, he's still actually able to hold down meetings reasonably well.

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Is Biden's embrace of Israel a political liability for him?
Is Biden's embrace of Israel a political liability for him? | US Politics In :60 | GZERO Media

Is Biden's embrace of Israel a political liability for him?

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.

Is Biden's embrace of Israel a political liability for him in the US?

President Biden this week gave a forceful speech from the Oval Office following up on a strong condemnation of the Hamas attacks on Israel two weeks ago. He's requested $106 billion in aid between Israel, the US southern border and Ukraine, and has made a forceful defense of the need for the US to spend money to protect democracies.

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Hunter Biden's legal issues are an opportunity for GOP
Hunter Biden's legal issues are an opportunity for GOP | US Politics In: 60 | GZERO Media

Hunter Biden's legal issues are an opportunity for GOP

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

Is President Biden's son Hunter a political liability for him?

This week, an extraordinary scene played out in a courtroom in Delaware as a judge rejected a plea deal that was negotiated by lawyers for President Biden's son Hunter over illegal possession of a firearm and tax evasion. Republicans have been criticizing the plea deal for weeks, saying it was far too lenient on the president's son, and reflected what they've called a two-tier justice system being pursued by federal law enforcement. One tier is attempting to prosecute former President Trump for mishandling classified documents and his role in trying to overturn the election results in 2020, and another that is giving the current president's son a slap on the wrist that would've provided him immunity from far more serious charges that he acted as an unregistered foreign agent.

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Jess Frampton

Despite unpopularity, Biden remains the overwhelming favorite for the Democratic nomination

Joe Biden is a historically unpopular president.

Two and a half years into his term, Biden’s average job-approval rating is a dismal 39.1%. His net approval – the difference between his approval and disapproval ratings – is -16.3%, the second lowest of any modern US president at this point in their term (the top spot goes to Jimmy Carter). Even former president and current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump was more popular than Biden.

Biden is struggling not just with Republicans (duh) and independents (whom he won by double digits in 2020), but he’s also unusually weak among Democrats and Democratic-leaning constituencies. More than two-thirds of Americans – including a majority of Democrats – say they don’t want the president to seek a second term. About half of these cite Biden’s age and mental fitness as major reasons why. Already the oldest president in history at 80 years old, Biden would be 82 on Election Day and 86 at the end of a second presidential term.

Biden’s unpopularity threatens to hurt his reelection bid. While he’s still the narrow favorite against Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – the top GOP contenders –Biden’s lead seems to be shrinking, and Democratic elites are increasingly worried that the president’s age, deteriorating health, and weak public standing will lose them the White House.

It follows that Democrats will nominate someone else to replace Biden at the head of the Democratic ticket and maximize their chances of winning in 2024. Right?

Wrong.

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Hunter Biden's crimes won't impact 2024 election
GOP will leverage Hunter Biden's crimes in the 2024 elections | World In: 60 | GZERO Media

Hunter Biden's crimes won't impact 2024 election

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Will Hunter Biden's tax crimes impact Joe Biden's reelection in 2024?

No, I don't think it will, but certainly it is impacting the continued erosion of US democratic institutions. I mean, this will be used by the GOP to say that, "There's differential treatment between the Biden crime family and the Trump crime family." My personal belief is that these are not equivalent, and I'll be talking about that later in the week. But what that means is the DOJ and the FBI are going to be seen as increasingly politicized as organizations. That's really unfortunate for the US, but it doesn't have much impact on 2024.

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US President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris during Biden's second State of the Union address.

Jacquelyn Martin/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

It's official — Biden is running

US President Joe Biden on Tuesday officially announced he's running for a second term. As was widely expected, he kicked off his reelection bid in a video message on the fourth anniversary of his 2020 campaign launch.

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