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Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz walk after a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), in Belem, Brazil, on November 7, 2025.
Q+A: Climate tries for a comeback at COP30
When it comes to global warming, the hottest ticket in the world right now is for the COP30 conference, which runs for the next week in Brazil.
What’s COP30? It’s the 30th installment of an annual UN-backed event that brings together world leaders, diplomats, and experts for two broad purposes: finding ways to slow global warming and to address the impacts of climate change.
This year’s meeting, held in the Amazon rainforest city of Belém, comes amid huge new challenges to the climate agenda. The government of the world’s largest economy, the US, is once again actively hostile towards climate policy. The world’s leading philanthropist, Bill Gates, has recently downgraded climate change as a key concern.
What’s more, it’s been ten years since nearly 200 countries signed the Paris Agreement, pledging to reduce emissions in order to keep global temperature rises within specific targets. The efforts have largely failed, and the targets are now unreachable.
So what is achievable at this year’s COP? To learn more we sat down with Herbert Crowther, an energy and climate expert at Eurasia Group. Our conversation has been lightly edited.
GZERO: Herbert, you’re on your way to COP 30 in Brazil. How does this COP feel different from previous ones? Are the stakes higher? Lower?
This COP feels different because there isn’t a single trademark deliverable or negotiating point. Most other recent COPs have had that: last year at COP29 it was about setting financing targets, for example.
This year the larger question is how to find ways to address the current geopolitical obstacles. The Brazilian COP hosts have tried to frame this in terms of COP30 being about “implementation” of prior commitments rather than negotiating new commitments, but that framing has faced some pushback.
So it’s all much more unpredictable than other recent gatherings. From a negotiating point of view, the stakes are perhaps lower – but from a political sentiment point of view, the stakes are higher.
GZERO: The Trump administration has left the Paris Agreement. Bill Gates is focusing on other things. That means two huge, longstanding pillars of support for climate policy are now gone. Who is going to drive this stuff now?
Those are real headwinds. But there are other data points that are less foreboding. Besides the US, no other country has departed the Paris Agreement. The costs of low-carbon energy continue to drop, driven in significant part by Chinese manufacturers. The private sector generally remains bullish on decarbonization technologies. And many philanthropies will still engage in climate work, even as they change their public framing around it or prioritize other issues. The area where politics may be most disruptive is in the question of financing: projects may be more difficult to finance and more reliant on government support.
GZERO: What’s a realistic expectation of what can be achieved at this COP? What are you most optimistic about and what are you most pessimistic about?
We will likely see more agreements between countries on carbon trading, as well as some new targets for financing and monitoring projects that help countries to adapt to climate change.
I’m more pessimistic on the ability of COP30 to find a political message that will respond effectively to this geopolitical environment. In many ways, a positive vision for COP30 is simply to maintain credibility for the multilateral process, and to create conditions for a COP31 next year that has more time to identify solutions tailored to this geopolitical environment.
GZERO: A lay reader, or a person who doesn’t follow climate policy closely, might look at the headlines about how countries keep failing to meet their obligations, and wonder “why keep having COP at all?” How would you answer that?
That’s a very understandable concern. What is sometimes lost by those headlines is the value of the COP process as a choreography mechanism to encourage countries to regularly deepen their long-term climate ambitions. Most countries have done this ahead of COP30 with new 2035 targets, even if those commitments are not as ambitious as many observers would like. Recalibrating expectations and finding a new political framework for the whole process will be a topic of discussion in Belém.
No matter what happens, you’ll be in Brazil! What’s one thing you’re excited to do there that has NOTHING to do with climate change?
I am looking forward to seeing Belém – my first time in the Amazon! I will be consuming lots of Brazilian espressos throughout the week.
Have a couple for us too – enjoy!
Preventing conflicts before they start, with María Fernanda Espinosa
“It means building peace, having a very strong and well-equipped intellectually oversight machinery, to have a scenario-building machinery, to have early warning systems in place,” she tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the Paris Peace Forum. Espinosa calls for a “refocus, not austerity,” to strengthen the UN’s early warning systems and invest in prevention. “One dollar in prevention saves a thousand in response,” she notes.
Turning to climate, she urges faster action ahead of COP30 in Brazil, warning that progress “is not matching the science.” Latin America, she says, must lead with resilience and unity despite political divides.
This conversation is part of GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, presented in partnership with Microsoft.
Trump's climate "scam" talk at the UN was just that–talk
At the UN, President Trump called climate change a "con job" and a "scam." But here's the thing, says Eurasia Group's Franck Gbaguidi, it doesn't matter what you call it, it matters what you do about it. And so far, Trump has changed how we talk about climate change, but not what's being done about it.
President Trump has made it a mission to roll back the clock on climate policy, like withdrawing again from the Paris Climate Agreement, doubling down on fossil fuels or demonizing offshore wind. But really, when it comes to action, that's pretty much about it.
What he has done is changed the way sustainability advocates, world leaders, or even large corporations, are talking about climate change. So now they no longer talk about energy transition, but they talk about energy security. Before you couldn't talk about nuclear power here in New York during climate week because Fukushima and many other incidents, now there's an excitement that we've never seen before.
France, Egypt, South Korea, all these countries are ramping up efforts and they're doing so under the framework of energy security. Take climate change. We no longer talk about climate change per se, but we focus on water security. That's because people can deny that climate change exists, but they won't deny droughts, they won't deny floods. Take the US and Mexico and all of the water access issues at the border. Take China and India when it comes to dam constructions and all of the controversies that come with it. Same thing with Greece and Bulgaria and their water agreement. Water stress has become a major issue, and work is being done both on the policy side and on the investment side to ensure that we have the right technology to address the problem.
Final example, emission reductions. We no longer talk about it now we focus on adaptation. So you're not hearing as much about those big, shiny targets to reduce emissions. That era is pretty much over and done with. Most countries are no longer announcing ambitious targets, they're focusing on adaptation. Take India, for instance, where outdoor workers now, for a big part of the year, can only work until 10:00 a.m before it gets too hot. So it's about addressing the world that we live in today rather than preventing one we don't want to live in tomorrow.
So why does it matter? If you watch the news, you may think that we are in a "stop the clock" moment. Big countries are pulling out of climate accords. They're no longer prioritizing the topic. I mean, here in New York at the UN, artificial intelligence and many other hot button issues have basically pushed climate to the back burner. But that is in fact hot topic. There is still plenty being done. So yes, Trump will keep calling climate change scam. But that won't stop what companies, investors, and world leaders are doing to address it.
A school of fish swim above a staghorn (Acropora cervicornis) coral colony as it grows on the Great Barrier Reef off the coast of Cairns, Australia October 25, 2019.
Hard Numbers: Great Barrier Reef suffers worst coral damage, US cuts mRNA vaccine funding, South Korea opens visa-free tourism for Chinese visitors, & More
39: Australia’s Great Barrier Reef – the biggest living ecosystem in the world – has suffered its largest annual coral decline since monitoring began 39 years ago. Tropical cyclones and coral-eating starfish are partly responsible, but experts say rising sea temperatures due to climate change are the main culprit.
5: Law and Justice-backed Karol Nawrocki began his five-year term as Polish president after his inauguration earlier today. Nawrocki will be a consistent thorn in the side of centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk: unlike Tusk, the new president supports tax cuts and doesn’t see a place for Ukraine in NATO nor the European Union.
$500 million: US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. canceled nearly $500 million in funding for mRNA vaccine research. mRNA technology, which gives genetic instructions to the body on how to fight diseases, enabled the rapid development of the COVID-19 vaccine. Several large studies say mRNA is safe, but the technology has faced scrutiny from Kennedy Jr., vaccine skeptic groups, and other members of the Trump administration.
2: Just how big is the AI spending boom? Over the past two quarters, investment in artificial intelligence has contributed more to American GDP growth than consumer spending, according to Renaissance Macro, an economic research company.
30: South Korea announced it will temporarily allow Chinese nationals to visit with a tour group for 30 days without needing a visa. It’s the first time that Seoul has allowed Chinese tourists to enter without a visa like this. The pilot program, which runs from Sept. 29 to June 30 next year, is part of a cautious thaw in bilateral relations.
View of Tehran at sunset on February 26th, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Iranian water shortages prompt public holiday, Trump admin to burn contraceptives, Ozzy leaves the stage for the last time, & More
1: Iran announced an impromptu one-day public holiday on Wednesday for Tehran’s residents, in an effort to save on water and electricity. Intense heatwaves have added strain to an already-worsening water crisis in the country, brought about by climate change and mismanagement.
$10 million: The Trump administration will incinerate nearly $10 million worth of US-funded contraceptives – intended for poorer nations – in France, after storing them for months in a Belgian warehouse following cuts to USAID programs. The White House reportedly rejected offers from the United Nations and other NGOs to buy or distribute the supplies themselves.
$4 billion: A Saudi business delegation arrived in Syria on Wednesday, where it is expected to sign $4 billion worth of joint projects and deals with Damascus. Riaydh has been a key financial backer in Syria’s post-war rebuilding efforts.
100: Over 100 humanitarian organizations issued a joint statement on Wednesday calling on governments to take decisive action against mass starvation in Gaza. Demanding an immediate and permanent ceasefire, the statement warns that Israel’s partial aid blockade on the enclave has left assistance workers – alongside Palestinian civilians – “wasting away.”
76: Heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne died at 76 on Tuesday. Just weeks ago, the ailing rock icon held a final reunion concert with Black Sabbath, the supergroup that he started as a young lad in Birmingham, United Kingdom, more than half a century ago. So long Oz, may the Crazy Train keep chugging on into eternity.
Graphic Truth: Billion-dollar disasters have become more common
In addition to the devastating human toll of last weekend’s Texas floods, which have so far taken the lives of at least 100 people – including dozens of children – initial estimates put the economic damage to people’s homes, businesses, and public infrastructure at upwards of $18 billion.
The number of US weather and climate-related disasters that have inflicted at least $1 billion worth of damage has in fact grown significantly over the past two decades, as weather patterns become more severe, a phenomenon experts attribute to climate change. Here is a look at this tragic trend since 1980.
U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit at the Rocky Mountain resort town of Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, June 15, 2025.
The G7: Now G6 + 1?
The G7 is no longer setting the table; it’s struggling to hold the cutlery. Once a pillar of the post-war world order, the group today is split between the US and the rest, casting about for common ground. Before this week’s summit even kicked off in Kananaskis, Canada, host Prime Minister Mark Carney warned there would be no final joint communique. So what’s up for discussion - and what could be achieved?
The official agenda: Trade, defense, and AI
Trade trumps climate change. With US President Donald Trump back on the scene, tariffs are huge, while climate action takes a backseat. Leaders will try to defend existing net-zero goals, update plans to tackle wildfires, and boost clean tech cooperation. But the meetings’ first focus is on trade, and striking deals. Countries will seek to defend themselves against Trump’s protectionist policies by both expanding trade with each other and getting Trump to lift tariffs on their countries.
Defense and Industry. While the Iran-Israel war now overshadows existing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, support for Kyiv is still on the menu. The tone is shifting, however, to talk of pan-European defense against Russian aggression. Carney, French president Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are expected to push for a “defense-industrial pact,” a long-term commitment to arms production and supply chains to “Re-Arm Europe”.
Artificial Intelligence and Misinformation Leaders are looking at baseline safeguards around algorithmic transparency and deepfake detection, given the worldwide rise in election interference, cybercrime and cyberwarfare. While global AI regulation is unlikely, the G7 may commit to coordinating digital watchdogs and fighting cross-border disinformation campaigns.
The backstory: America alone
All these items are dominated by a larger issue: the widening gap between the US and its allies. Trump’s view of the world order diverges starkly from that of the other members of the group. His thin skin and volatility could also compromise the outcome of the talks, especially if he storms out like he did at the infamous 2018 Charlevoix summit. Carney’s main tasks include preventing Trump from feeling disrespected, and navigating the divide between G6 goals and US ambitions such as Trump’s takedown of China.
What can this meeting achieve, then?
Expect no joint statement, but lots of bilateral action, with both Trump and other world leaders. On Sunday, for example, Carney and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a strengthened partnership on a range of issues including trade and defense. Carney has also invited a slew of non-G7 leaders, including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, arguing that they are key to solving major questions such as energy security and AI. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will also be present, as will the leaders of Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and South Africa. In the end, the biggest achievement may simply be keeping the group alive to meet another day.A migrant carries his child after crossing the Darien Gap and arriving at the migrant reception center, in the village of Lajas Blancas, Darien Province, Panama, on September 26, 2024.
The migration issue will only get worse
On Tuesday, a coalition government in the Netherlands collapsed. The trigger? Geert Wilders, leader of the anti-immigration Party of Freedom (PVV) and a coalition partner, demanded new restrictions on the government’s grant of asylum to migrants. When these weren’t met, he pulled his party from the governing coalition.
Elsewhere in Europe, anti-immigration frustrations have fueled the rising political fortunes of nativist parties and politicians in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and several other countries. In the United States, Donald Trump was again elected president in 2024 after centering his campaign not just on curbing illegal immigration across the southern border from Mexico, but also on deporting millions of undocumented immigrants.
This political trend isn’t limited to wealthy Western countries. The entry of a million Rohingya Muslims fleeing a bloody state crackdown in Myanmar has roiled the politics of Bangladesh. Refugees are moving across African borders in large numbers, fueling violence in many countries.
Globally, the number of people on the move is on the rise. In 2024, the UN reported 304 million international migrants, nearly double the number in 1990.
There are three main drivers of all these border crossings. The first is violence. Wars force civilians to flee, but less organized violence – like criminal gang activity in Central America – also pushes people to seek new lives abroad.
The second driver is climate change. Changing weather patterns disrupt farming, fishing, and herding, and can generate famine. Rising sea levels force people from over-crowded, low-lying areas.
But the principal cause is that a clear majority of the world’s migrants are simply looking for better economic opportunities for themselves and their families. This is especially true for those in developing countries. Counterintuitively, it isn’t poverty but their rising incomes that give them new opportunities to move toward richer countries.
Given these sources of migration, we should expect bigger waves ahead. The current lack of leadership in the international system, a problem that Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer calls the “G-zero world order,” will make armed conflict and an expansion of the world’s ungoverned spaces within countries, both more likely and more violent.
The Institute for the Study of Economics and Peace, a think tank, warns that more than one billion people live in 31 countries where “the country’s resilience is unlikely to sufficiently withstand the impact of ecological events” by 2050, contributing to “mass population displacement,” and that as many as 3.5 billion people could suffer from food insecurity by that date.
What’s more, as living standards and populations continue to grow in developing countries, more people will have the opportunity to move abroad.
As people increasingly go on the road, the politics in wealthy countries will also become uglier. Politicians on one side will insist that all new border restrictions are hateful and cruel, while those on the other will warn that surges of new arrivals will spread crime and disease.
Even when the debate is more nuanced, political leaders seem more interested in scoring points – and raising cash – at the other side’s expense than in finding common ground and enacting sensible immigration policies.
This deadlock over how to accommodate hundreds of millions of migrants in coming years will ensure this problem will become a much larger-scale international emergency than it is today. The situation in the Netherlands is the tip of the iceberg.
And, speaking as the husband of someone who migrated to America as a six-year-old girl, the scale of human tragedy becomes almost unthinkable.