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IMF's Kristalina Georgieva: We help countries build resilience to handle shocks
In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 79th UN General Assembly, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva expressed pride in the institution’s proactive response during a period marked by global crises. Georgieva emphasized that the IMF’s role extends beyond financial aid by helping countries build strong policies and institutions, ensuring resilience in the face of shocks.
“We are growing this year 3.2%, next year 3.2%. And it is because of this foundation that has been built over the decades of strong policies and good institutions. Where you have it, shocks do not crush you.”
However, Georgieva emphasizes that as the world evolves, so too must the IMF. She highlights how the IMF recently added a third chair for Sub-Saharan Africa to enhance representation and legitimacy in its governance structure.“
If you want to be respected and legitimate, we have to show that we are not stuck in our glorious past, that we are forward leaning, so countries can think of us as their family, that it is inclusive and embracing all of our members.” Click here to watch the full conversation.
Can we use AI to secure the world's digital future?
How do we ensure AI is safe, available to everyone, and enhancing productivity? It’s a big topic at this year’s UN General Assembly. That’s why GZERO’s Global Stage livestream on Tuesday brought together leading experts at the heart of the action for “Live from the United Nations: Securing our Digital Future,” an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft. The conversation was moderated by Folly Bah Thibault, a journalist and senior presenter for Al-Jazeera English.
Securing the future starts by building a strong foundation, and the International Monetary Fund plays a key role in the fight by matching funding to the needs of developing economies. But it goes deeper than that, said Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. “What we deliver is not just money, it is putting in place strong institutions.
”Those same strong institutions will help build a more peaceful world, said Czech President Petr Pavel — but only if countries can learn to compromise. “If we don’t want to live forever in conflict, we have to finally learn that we have to share this planet.”
In that sense, tackling a lot of the problems the world faces — conflict, inequality, technological disruption — boils down to finding shared values and putting funds where they are most needed. “What is regulation and policy if it is not based on values?” asked Under-Secretary-General for Policy Guy Ryder, adding that good policy, properly funded, would allow “you [to] connect people … and educate them to use the technologies” that could prove transformative.
Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed said AI technology will play a crucial role in helping the world achieve Sustainable Development Goals — most of which are in very rough shape. “It’s not about stopping, it’s about really accelerating” to make good on what can be achieved by 2030.
Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer said his work with the UN on developing an international framework for AI has focused on “deploying AI to help up meet the sustainable development goals.”
But safeguards aren’t enough, said Microsoft President Brad Smith. “Guardrails aren’t going to ensure it reaches everybody. Investment will,” he said. Microsoft is the largest investor in OpenAI and has invested in more than 20 AI-related startups.
The US State Department is also working to leverage artificial intelligence in advancing global peace. “We see data as the lens that brings the factors that drive instability into focus,” said Anne Witkowsky, assistant secretary of state for conflict and stabilization operations. That means using AI to bring together the big picture — economics, politics, climate, sociology — to identify hot spots before problems spiral.
Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Workneh Gebeyehu offered a practical example: “We have a climate center that works for all Africa to predict droughts, floods, and locust storms,” relying on pattern recognition technology. That helps farmers and governments react in real-time, ideally avoiding the worst of the catastrophes.
Live from the United Nations: Securing Our Digital Future
How can technology and artificial intelligence be harnessed to support the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and create a positive impact in the Global South? This question is top of mind for many gathering at the UN's 79th General Assembly in New York.
Our livestream panel discussion, "Live from the United Nations: Securing Our Digital Future" will examine these key issues on Tuesday, September 24 at 5:30 PM ET broadcasting live from inside United Nations headquarters as the first day of high-level General Debate concludes. Produced in collaboration between GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft, and the UN’s Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d), our panel of prominent experts and leaders will explore how multilateral organizations are adapting to the realities of the 21st-century world.
The discussion will be moderated by Folly Bah Thibault, a journalist and senior presenter for Al-Jazeera English, and will feature a distinguished panel including:
- Talal Al Kaissi, Acting Group Chief Global Affairs Officer, G42
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu, Executive Secretary, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)
- Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, IMF
- Amina Mohammed, Deputy Secretary-General, United Nations
- Petr Pavel, Czech Republic President
- Guy Ryder, Under-Secretary-General for Policy, Executive Office of the Secretary-General
- Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President, Microsoft
- Anne Witkowsky, Assistant Secretary of State, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations
Live from the United Nations: Securing Our Digital Future
Europe's 2023 energy scarcity will drive green transition, says IMF chief
With soaring energy prices, Europe is headed toward a dark winter. But next year could be even worse.
If Vladimir Putin continues to weaponize natural gas supplies, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva believes 2023 will be an even tougher winter for the Europeans, she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Still, there's a silver lining. Kicking its Russian gas habit will make it easier for Europe to make its green energy transition a reality.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Can the world avoid a global recession?
- The EU's natural gas troubles won't end after ditching Russia ... ›
- Can the world avoid a global recession? - GZERO Media ›
- 3 reasons risk of global recession in 2023 has increased - GZERO ... ›
- The tentacles of a global energy crisis - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: The European Union's energy mix - GZERO Media ›
- Unpacking Lithuania's energy independence strategy - GZERO Media ›
3 reasons risk of global recession in 2023 has increased
A global recession is looming in 2023. But why?
Speaking to Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva offers three reasons.
First, all the big economies — the US, China, and the Eurozone — are slowing down at the same time.
Second, inflation shows no signs of abating.
Third, the world is becoming more fragmented, which Georgieva says makes it harder to find solutions to common problems.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Can the world avoid a global recession?
- Can the world avoid a global recession? - GZERO Media ›
- Is the world on the brink of another global recession? - GZERO Media ›
- The Graphic Truth: Is the US economy in a recession? - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Making sense of global inflation, looming recession ... ›
- Europe's 2023 energy scarcity will drive green transition, says IMF chief - GZERO Media ›
Can the world avoid a global recession?
This year, the annual fall meetings of the World Bank and the IMF are all about global economic doom and gloom.
How bad will it get? Are we headed toward a worldwide recession? And who will bear the brunt of the pain?
To get some answers, GZERO World with Ian Bremmer has two very special guests: World Bank President David Malpass and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.
Malpass tackles the elephant in the room: whether he's a climate denier. His odds of a global recession? 50/50. But the World Bank chief is more worried about the poorest countries going backwards on their development goals.
For her part, Georgieva explains the three drivers that'll likely trigger a worldwide economic slowdown next year. She also predicts that the coming winter will be bad for Europe — but the next one will be worse.
- Is the world on the brink of another global recession? - GZERO Media ›
- Will stagflation make a comeback? - GZERO Media ›
- David Malpass: I'm not a climate denier - GZERO Media ›
- Is the global debt apocalypse here? - GZERO Media ›
- Europe's 2023 energy scarcity will drive green transition, says IMF chief - GZERO Media ›
- The state of the global economy is … not good - GZERO Media ›
- World faces "lost decade" of economic growth, says World Bank economist - GZERO Media ›
Podcast: Winter is coming. Global recession, too?
Listen: Inflation is on the rise, at a rate we haven't seen in through in decades. Is a global recession inevitable? Ian Bremmer speaks to Kristina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and David Malpass, President of the World Bank, on the GZERO World podcast. Both guests are leading global efforts to get inflation under control, lift millions out of extreme poverty and prevent the next global recession. Whether they’ll succeed is very much an open question.
Malpass says the chances of a global recession in 2023 are 50/50, though he is more worried that the middle-income and poorest countries are moving backward in education, health, food insecurity, and capital flows. He also clarifies his views on climate change.
Georgieva says the risk of a global recession has gone up due to three major reasons: the big global economies are slowing down, inflation is speeding up, and the world’s global order is fragmenting. She also explains how Europe should brace itself for a dark winter, even though the next one will be even harder. The silver lining, however, is that Europe is going to accelerate its green transition.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- The Graphic Truth: Is the US economy in a recession? - GZERO Media ›
- Are we in a recession? - GZERO Media ›
- Is the world on the brink of another global recession? - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: Making sense of global inflation, looming recession ... ›
- Podcast: China's economic head start & a world accelerating into recession - GZERO Media ›
Will stagflation make a comeback?
America’s fashionistas are super excited these days about 1990s crop tops, baggy outfits, and tattoo chokers, but economists are freaking out over a specter from a different decade: the ’70s. That’s when the US economy sputtered into what's known as “stagflation.”
Stagflation, very simply explained, is the double whammy of a stagnant economy coupled with double-digit inflation. In the mid-’70s it was caused by two oil crises, which doubled the price of crude and triggered recessions in many Western countries well into the early ’80s.
Why now? Six months ago, when COVID-related supply chain disruptions first started pushing up global inflation, there was a heated debate among economists about whether stagflation was looming. The skeptics argued that prices would stop rising when the pandemic ended and things “got back to normal.”
But earlier this year came two unexpected shocks. The first was Russia's war in Ukraine, which has driven the cost of energy, food, and other commodities through the roof. The second was China's zero-COVID policy, which has snarled supply chains even more.
It’s the war, stupid. TIGER — a global index tracking the global economic recovery set up by the Brookings Institution and the Financial Times — warned in its Sunday update that stagflation might affect most economies this year as the war in Ukraine exacerbates a slowdown in the global post-pandemic recovery.
What’s more, on Tuesday the International Monetary Fund will lower its growth forecasts for 143 of the world’s economies, representing a staggering 86% of global GDP.
Barely six months ago, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva dismissed talk of stagflation when prices were beginning to rise mainly due to pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions. Now, she says that the Russian invasion is a “massive setback for the global recovery” from COVID and admits that “for the first time in many years, inflation has become a clear and present danger.”
How big of a deal is this? Stagflation has often been described as pretty much the worst thing that can happen to an economy outside of a war, a natural disaster or, obviously, a pandemic. If GDP doesn’t grow enough for wages to keep pace with inflation, everyone feels the pinch: purchasing power declines, people lose their jobs, credit and investment dry up, and poverty increases.
Also, recessions tend to have political consequences. US President Joe Biden surely knows that his predecessor Jimmy Carter blames losing his job in part on America’s economic “malaise” at the end of his term. Wherever stagflation hits, expect incumbents to feel the heat from populist insurgents who claim to have the secret sauce for making economic woes go away (spoiler: they likely won’t).
So, should we be worried? As always, economists disagree.
On the one hand, the war and zero-COVID have thrown a wrench into a global recovery that was already limping. The longer the war drags on and the longer Xi Jinping doubles down on his policy to contain the pandemic in China, the more prices will continue to rise and the more supply chains will be impacted by Chinese lockdowns.
Xi might be able to keep China’s economy chugging along with more stimulus spending, but other countries won’t because COVID left their coffers empty. Also, the world’s economy is a lot more interconnected than it was in the ’70s, and since inflation is a global phenomenon, all nations will take a big hit.
On the other hand, it might be too early to determine whether the current economic slowdown will be enough to trigger stagflation in many parts of the world. For instance, the US economy is still doing well and unemployment remains low despite recession fears. (The traditional definition includes high unemployment, but most economists now believe economic stagnation and high inflation are enough.)
"While global inflation is now very high — above 7% in the US, the EU, and the UK — it is still forecasted to lower in the next few months," says Eurasia Group analyst Robert Habib. "For one thing, spending will cool in part because central banks will raise interests rates across the board. For another, supply chain issues will ease as cargo traffic starts to pick up."
Whatever happens, people are definitely curious about stagflation nowadays. Last month, Google searches for the term far exceeded those during the 2008 global financial crisis.
What's your take? Let us know here.