VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Sign up for GZERO Daily.
Get our latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
Global Stage: Live from Munich
WATCH RECORDING
popular
Presented by
Governments of the developed world are finally responding with due sense of urgency, individually in 3 different ways.
1st, stand health care systems up so they won't get overwhelmed (late responses). The private & public sector together, building additional ICU beds, supply capacity and production of medical equipment and surge medical personnel in the US, Canada, across Europe & the UK. Unclear if we avoid a Northern Italy scenario. A couple days ago, Dr. Fauci from the NIH said he was hopeful. Epidemiologists and critical care doctors don't feel comfortable. Not in New York, Chicago, LA, Boston, Philadelphia, New Orleans. In Europe, particularly London, Madrid, Catalonia, Barcelona, might be significantly short.
We'll see in 2-4 weeks. If responses are adequate, caseload will still explode, but mortality will be dramatically lower by 80 or 90%. The US caseload now is highest in the world. China lies about cases, but the US dramatically under-tests. On balance, the US has a larger outbreak than China at the peak. But the likelihood of a lot of American deaths looks lower. The key variable is, do we get the health care system surged adequately in the next few weeks? It's a race against time.
Dramatic response from the developed world on the monetary & fiscal side. On the monetary side, central bankers are reading from the 2008-2009 playbook. We had a financial crisis. Regulations ensured that the banks became more robust. On fiscal policy: US $2 trillion stimulus is 10% of American GDP. The Fed is able to leverage that with additional loans; a functional equivalent of $4 trillion, 20% of GDP - should be enough relief to get through 1/5 of the year, 2 months. No one thinks supply and demand is coming back in the next 6, 8 weeks.
The fiscal stimulus appears sufficient; market response has been positive so far. Congress members believe we will need more stimulus in 2 months. What kind? How big? Another $2-4 trillion, or more? The closer to elections, the more challenging.
Emerging markets need the same scale of stimulus, but don't have the cash. India on lockdown, done state by state. A few states, Punjab, Kerala, Maharashtra, look like they're doing a decent job. Other states, not. Net 80 to 90% of the Indian economy is informal - the way you get money to people has to be direct. Source of money has to be external. IMF, international financial institutions, US, Europe, others have to step up. I'm skeptical.
Emerging markets are going to experience bigger crises and crash- don't have governance resilience or coordination, need money. Turkey has a steep curve of cases, problem with social distancing. Different from the Nordics or Japan. Cultural features play in why cases explode in Italy and Spain - large numbers of people spend more time in close proximity, lead to many more cases. That's a problem for Turkey.
The Brazilian president refuses to shut down or call for social distancing. He's going after the governors that are shutting down the economy. If an explosion doesn't happen in Brazil and the economy's in decent order, he'll look like a hero. I think Bolsonaro is going to be in trouble.
Better story on US-China. After Trump has been saying the China virus, & the G-7 couldn't come up with a joint statement because Secretary of State Pompeo was saying it's got to be the Wuhan virus and no American allies agreed. Trump yesterday has a conference call with Xi Jinping. Tweets about it. Calls it the coronavirus. Is that because Trump doesn't have a willingness to talk honestly to Xi Jinping's face? Is he scared or is he actually backing away from a cold war? I think it's more the latter than the former. Trump doesn't want the economy to take a bigger dive from starting a fight with the Chinese. He's backing away. Good news.
Will it stick? Depends on how Trump's numbers do, as the election gets closer and it's harder to give a good story. This story is going to shift from numbers to people. A couple weeks ago, none of us knew people that died of coronavirus. Few knew people that had it. Now, a lot of us know people that have it. Some know people that died. Trump's lack of human empathy is going to be more challenging. I worry that we end up in a much more confrontational stance of the Americans vis-a-vis the Chinese.
Keep reading...Show less
More from popular
After decapitation, what’s next?
March 04, 2026
Nuclear is back on the global agenda
March 04, 2026
Iran conflict: who could run out of weapons first?
March 04, 2026
What’s Good Wednesdays™, March 4, 2026
March 04, 2026
Quick Take
Mar 03, 2026
German lesson: Merz tries a balancing act at the White House
March 03, 2026
Empowering communities to enable the global AI economy
March 03, 2026
Puppet Regime
Mar 03, 2026
Iran conflict spirals, with no end in sight
March 02, 2026
How the Iran conflict could disrupt the world’s oil supply
March 02, 2026
Almost everyone in Iran “just waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei to die”
February 28, 2026
The US and Israel struck Iran. What happens next?
February 28, 2026
The US and Israel launch war on Iran
February 28, 2026
Iran at war with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour
February 28, 2026
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Feb 28, 2026
Trump and Khamenei hold last ditch Iran nuclear talks
February 27, 2026
Were Epstein’s friends in high places his currency?
February 27, 2026
You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz - February 27, 2026
February 27, 2026
The US writes its own rules
February 26, 2026
What the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling really changed
February 25, 2026
What’s Good Wednesdays™, February 25, 2026
February 25, 2026
The foreign policy details Trump omitted
February 25, 2026
Trump’s State of the Union address
February 25, 2026
Small businesses at a crossroads
February 25, 2026
Walmart’s $1 billion investment is strengthening associate careers
February 25, 2026
Four years in: Ukraine war grinds on
February 24, 2026
Putin & Xi on Trump's Iran threats
February 24, 2026
Graphic Truth: Russia’s declining fossil fuel revenues
February 24, 2026
Explore the Trusted Tech Alliance
February 24, 2026
Daalder: "A ceasefire is not in the interest of Ukraine"
February 24, 2026
Has US–Iran diplomacy reached its end?
February 23, 2026
Has social media reached a tipping point?
February 23, 2026
How cybercrime is becoming a threat to economic growth
February 23, 2026
How Europe is moving on from Trump's America
February 23, 2026
NATO, Trump, and Europe’s wake-up call with Ivo Daalder
February 21, 2026
Ian Explains
Feb 20, 2026
Supreme Court blocks Trump’s tariff power
February 20, 2026
India’s AI power play
February 20, 2026
You vs. the News: A Weekly News Quiz - February 20, 2026
February 20, 2026
The man at the center of the Board of Peace
February 19, 2026
Venezuela cracked. Will Cuba follow?
February 18, 2026
ask ian
Feb 18, 2026
What’s Good Wednesdays™, February 18, 2026
February 18, 2026
Meet Puppet Regime’s puppet master
February 18, 2026
Graphic Truth: Is government making peoples' lives worse?
February 18, 2026
Nuclear is back on the global agenda
February 18, 2026
Walmart’s $1 billion investment is strengthening associate careers
February 18, 2026
Global technology leaders launch Trusted Tech Alliance
February 18, 2026
Can we rebuild the Internet for democracy?
February 17, 2026
Two Americas on display in Munich
February 17, 2026
Froman: The world is "adjusting" to Trump's tariff power
February 17, 2026
President Trump against the world
February 16, 2026
Ian Bremmer: The US–China AI space has “Zero Trust”
February 15, 2026
Why countries are picking their own alliances
February 15, 2026
What does “sovereign cloud” really mean?
February 15, 2026
The power of women leaders in global decision-making & peacebuilding
February 14, 2026
NATO’s new normal: “We may not be at war, but we’re not at peace”
February 14, 2026
Challenges facing the transatlantic relationship
February 14, 2026
Can tech rebuild trust?
February 14, 2026
President Trump's power-first foreign policy with CFR's President
February 14, 2026
How the US went from global cop to king of the jungle
February 13, 2026
GZERO Series
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.





















































































