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A pro-democracy march in Warsaw gathered up to 500,000 participants.
Poles’ democracy push
Around half a million Poles took to the streets of Warsaw on Sunday to protest the right-wing government of President Andrzej Duda in the largest pro-democracy display in Poland since the end of the Cold War. Thousands traveled from across the country – including some from the conservative heartland – to join demonstrators in the capital, while big rallies also formed in other cities, including Krakow.
The mass gathering coincided with the 34th anniversary of Poland's first post-war democratic election. It also comes just days after Duda’s conservative Law and Justice Party offered to amend a newly passed controversial law rather than scrap it entirely, which many Poles had been demanding.
The government says the legislation is aimed at investigating Russian influence over Polish politics and is crucial for the country’s national security. However, critics say that Duda, who has long been accused of eroding democratic norms, is using it to target opposition forces ahead of this fall’s general election (the date has not yet been set).
Duda has backtracked on an earlier version of the bill that allowed for a powerful committee to issue a 10-year ban from public office for those deemed to have any links to the Kremlin. He has since said that the law would not ban anyone from holding public office and that no lawmakers would sit on the decision-making committee.
Crucially, critics say this scheme aims to target Donald Tusk, a former Polish PM (2007-2014) and European Council president who heads the Civic Coalition bloc, Poland’s main opposition faction. During his time in Polish politics, Tusk strengthened energy ties with the Kremlin – making Warsaw reliant on Russian natural gas exports – and many say Duda is trying to use this new law to prevent the pro-European centrist from challenging him.
What now? Duda might be banking on the fact that anti-Russian sentiment remains sky-high in Poland, but has he gone a step too far with legislation that many see as a blatant attempt to quash his rivals? For now, Law and Justice
What We’re Watching: G7 warns Russia, Israeli PM in UAE, Blinken in Southeast Asia, Nicaragua ditches Taiwan, Poland may stiff EU
Russia’s big plans for Ukraine. G7 foreign ministers warned Sunday of “massive consequences” if Russia invades Ukraine. It was the first joint statement by the group of rich democracies since recent satellite images revealed a significant buildup of Russian troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine. Indeed, according to reports, the force that Moscow is massing near Ukraine is larger than the one it used to annex Crimea in 2014. This comes after the Pentagon said that Russia could have 175,000 troops on the border by the end of January in order to invade the former Soviet republic. In an attempt to lower the temperature last week, President Biden and Vladimir Putin held a long video call, but the Russian president was not deterred by Biden’s threat of more economic sanctions if Russia escalates further. Putin says he wants NATO not to expand membership any further into the former Soviet Union, and to stop military cooperation with Ukraine. Moscow will reportedly send a proposal for a security arrangement this week. But Putin, who has already indicated his willingness to threaten European energy markets, also knows all too well that while Washington talks a tough game, it is not willing to send in troops to defend Ukraine.
Israeli PM meets Emirati prince. Naftali Bennett landed Sunday in Abu Dhabi, marking the first-ever official visit by an Israeli PM to the United Arab Emirates. Bennett met with Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed, the de-facto Emirati leader. The visit is a sign of the endurance of four groundbreaking diplomatic agreements between Israel and Arab states brokered by the Trump administration in 2020. Since then, previously covert relations between the UAE and Israel have warmed significantly: Abu Dhabi has become a popular tourist destination for thousands of Israelis, while bilateral trade reached a whopping $600 million in the first seven months of this year. In the past, the Emiratis made diplomatic ties with Israel contingent on peace efforts with the Palestinians, but Bennett’s visit highlights the changed priorities of the Gulf states, now more concerned with partnering with Israel to contain a nuclear Iran. The Saudis, for their part, share strategic interests with their Gulf partners — and have been cooperating with Israel on intelligence and security behind closed doors for years. But so far, Riyadh has been unwilling to formalize diplomatic ties with Israel for a variety of reasons, including unfavorable public opinion toward Israel.
Blinken tours Southeast Asia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken kicks off on Monday his first Southeast Asian trip as America's top diplomat with stops in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Following similar tours by VP Kamala Harris and Defense chief Lloyd Austin, Blinken wants to bolster US defense cooperation with ASEAN, an economic bloc made up of Southeast Asian countries, to build a bulwark against China in the South China Sea. He will also pitch Joe Biden's vision for US-led Indo-Pacific trade as an alternative to doing more trade with China, and talk up Southeast Asia as an alternative business destination for US companies looking to abandon China. But what ASEAN really wants is tariff-free access to the US market, a non-starter for Biden because he says big trade deals with low-wage countries will hurt low-skilled American workers. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian countries are in a bind of their own: doing more business with the US as an alternative to China will create jobs, but the Chinese won't be happy about it — and nowadays they carry a lot more economic sway in the region than America does.
Taiwan’s decreasing diplomatic traction.Nicaragua is the latest country to drop recognition of Taiwan in favor of the People's Republic of China, which considers the self-governing island as part of its territory. Beijing has long lobbied aggressively for the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan with both carrots (mostly promising a lot of cash to those who switch sides) and sticks (like downgrading ties with Lithuania for allowing Taiwan to open a de-facto embassy in Vilnius). China's efforts are paying off: today only 13 mostly small nations plus the Vatican still recognize Taiwan and not the People’s Republic, down from 21 just five years ago. But in Central America the tilt towards Beijing also has to do with US sanctions against the authoritarian leaders of first El Salvador — which ditched Taiwan to embrace China three years ago — and now Nicaragua. Meanwhile, China continues to invest big in the region, and will likely spend more money in Nicaragua very soon. Ironically, Washington’s actions to aid democracy in Central America may actually bring some of its countries closer to America's authoritarian rival.
Poland and the EU are at it again. It’s clear that there’s no love lost these days between Warsaw and Brussels, who have been at loggerheads in recent years over rule-of-law issues, particularly a spate of reforms in Poland that undermine the judiciary’s independence. Poland upped the ante Sunday, saying it would withhold payments to the EU budget and veto EU laws if Brussels follows through on a previous threat to delay COVID relief funds after Poland’s top court ruled that its own constitution trumps EU law. The EU has said that disbursement of funds to “illiberal” member states Hungary and Poland is contingent on domestic democratic reforms — a mechanism that the two Eastern European states have now challenged in court. Poland is legally obligated to pay its EU dues in order to reap the bloc’s benefits, but clearly Warsaw is banking on Brussels acquiescing in the near term. However, the EU knows that Poland might not want to push the boundaries much further because a majority of Poles want to remain part of the EU. Who will cave first?What We're Watching: Poland threatens the EU
Poland and the EU are at it again. It’s clear that there’s no love lost these days between Warsaw and Brussels, who have been at loggerheads in recent years over rule-of-law issues, particularly a spate of reforms in Poland that undermine the judiciary’s independence. Poland upped the ante Sunday, saying it would withhold payments to the EU budget and veto EU laws if Brussels follows through on a previous threat to delay COVID relief funds after Poland’s top court ruled that its own constitution trumps EU law. The EU has said that disbursement of funds to “illiberal” member states Hungary and Poland is contingent on domestic democratic reforms — a mechanism that the two Eastern European states have now challenged in court. Poland is legally obligated to pay its EU dues in order to reap the bloc’s benefits, but clearly Warsaw is banking on Brussels acquiescing in the near term. However, the EU knows that Poland might not want to push the boundaries much further because a majority of Poles want to remain part of the EU. Who will cave first?
Anti Polexit banner is seen during 'We're staying in EU' demonstration at the Main Square in Krakow, Poland on October 10, 2021.
What We're Watching: EU-Poland judicial fight, Turkey joins Haiti prez murder probe, Pfizer’s COVID pill deal
EU vs Poland (yes, again). The EU's top court on Tuesday ruled that Poland's recent judicial reforms, which give the government leeway to appoint sympathetic justices, violate EU rule-of-law norms. Warsaw claims that its own constitutional court has already decided that Polish law supersedes EU law, so the stalemate continues. The EU and Poland have been fighting over this issue for years, but Brussels has recently begun showing its frustration with Poland — and Hungary too — over these issues. While the "illiberal" governments of both countries are popular, the EU also knows that most Hungarians and Poles want to stay in the 27-member union, and Brussels' ability to delay badly-needed EU pandemic relief money is a strong point of leverage. Defying Brussels is already starting to get expensive for Warsaw — in a separate judicial dispute, the EU is fining Poland 1 million euros ($1.1 million) per day until it abides by the bloc's rule-of-law norms.
Haiti's presidential assassination investigation goes global. Turkey has arrested a Haitian businessman of Jordanian origin allegedly connected to the plot to kill Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse last July. The suspect — detained in Istanbul en route to Jordan from the US — has been linked to a Florida-based doctor with Haitian roots who reportedly wanted to return to Haiti and assume the presidency after Moïse's death. More than 40 suspects have been arrested so far, including several Haitian security personnel and Colombian mercenaries. Although we still don't know who ordered the hit, the most plausible theory is that wealthy Haitians living abroad hired professionals to do the job. Meanwhile, Haiti itself remains mired in the political chaos that followed Moïse's assassination. With a weak government, gangsters like the notorious Monsieur Barbecue, Haiti's most powerful mobster, are now running the show in the chronically unstable Caribbean nation.
Pfizer's COVID pill plans. US drug manufacturer Pfizer will allow its experimental COVID treatment pill to be produced and sold in 95 developing nations that are home to more than half of the world's population. The deal is part of a UN-backed, for-profit consortium. Pfizer says that as long as COVID remains a WHO-designated public health emergency, it won't charge royalties for the pill, which clinical trials show reduces the risk of COVID hospitalization or death by 89 percent. While the treatment is still good news, inequality in access to COVID vaccines and treatments persists, with numerous issues outstanding — from pharma patent issues, to global production supply deals, to local drug production capacity. Still, having cheaper access to effective treatment is a big deal for the countries on Pfizer's list, most of which have very low vaccination rates and weak healthcare capacity.Polish service members and police officers are seen behind a barbed wire fence as hundreds of migrants gather on the Belarusian-Polish border in an attempt to cross it in the Grodno region, Belarus November 9, 2021.
The EU’s big Eastern problems
Let's take a trip along the eastern fringes of the EU today, where two big problems are brewing at a time when Brussels seems particularly unable to respond effectively.
Our first stop is along the frigid and bleak border of Belarus, where thousands of migrants, mostly from the Middle East, have been trying since June to cross into EU member states Lithuania and Poland.
In recent days, tensions at these borders have escalated significantly. The migrants, allegedly driven forward by Belarusian police, are trying to break through Polish border fences. Lithuania, which initially let some of the migrants in, has now declared a state of emergency. The Poles, meanwhile, have sent some 12,000 troops to the border to stop them, and Polish officials accuse Belarusian troops of firing warning shots in the air to intimidate their Polish counterparts.
European officials say Belarus is using the freezing and malnourished migrants as pawns in a diplomatic showdown with the EU, which last year imposed sanctions on strongman president Alexander Lukashenko over his sham 2020 re-election and human rights abuses, as well as his hijacking of a Ryanair flight last May. But even if that's true, EU critics point out, the Europeans had months to prepare a coherent plan to manage this border problem — and failed to act. An ongoing spat between EU officials and the Polish government over rule of law issues has made matters worse: the Poles haven't asked EU border authorities for help.
Lukashenko, for his part, says Poland's troop movements pose a threat to Belarus and blames the EU and US for the instability that is pushing people from the Middle East to seek refuge in Europe in the first place.
The EU, caught off guard, is now threatening to slap even more sanctions on Lukashenko's regime and to punish the airlines that are ferrying would-be migrants to Minsk from countries like Iraq, the UAE, Lebanon, and Turkey. That could raise hackles in EU member Ireland, where many of the companies that lease planes to the airlines are based.
But more sanctions don't look likely to change Belarusian behavior. Particularly when Lukashenko's old frenemy Vladimir Putin is eagerly egging him on. And while the EU has managed other refugee problems by simply paying neighboring countries — like Libya or Turkey — to prevent migrants from reaching EU borders, that's not an option here: you can't send money to a government you are sanctioning.
Now, let's fly a thousand miles southeast, to the marchlands of eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, where the Kremlin has recently begun (again) massing troops along a Ukrainian "border" that isn't much of a boundary. It's more a porous line of demarcation administered by Russia and the Kremlin-backed separatists who control parts of eastern Ukraine.
Moscow has deployed some 90,000 troops to the region, raising lingering fears about Russia's broader designs on Ukraine. The US calls the buildup "unusual." And it's alarming enough that CIA director Bill Burns reportedly discussed the matter with Putin in Moscow last week.
Recall that back in April Russia brought as many as 150,000 troops into the area, before slowly drawing them back. What's Moscow up to this time?
To be clear, it's hard to imagine that the Kremlin intends to invade (and occupy) a significant piece of Ukraine. The cost in Russian money and lives would not be popular at home.
But Putin likes to rattle that sabre every so often, in part to remind Europeans and Americans that he can. And lately Russia is feeling particularly prickly: Moscow cut ties with NATO last month and is upset about US warships sailing around the Black Sea. The recent delivery of $60 million worth of US military aid to Ukraine didn't go over well in the Kremlin either.
With winter coming, it's actually a great moment for Russia to flex a little muscle. Europe is currently mired in an energy price crisis caused by a shortage of natural gas. The one country that could help alleviate that pressure is, of course, major exporter Russia. But the Kremlin — which is still under a raft of sanctions in response to its 2014 invasion of Ukraine — has refused to open the taps until Russia is treated better by Brussels.
Upshot: Once again, some of the EU's most intractable problems rise in the East. And things aren't going to get any easier once experienced crisis manager Angela Merkel retires next month.A person wearing a Sudan's flag stand in front of a burning pile of tyres during a protest against prospect of military rule in Khartoum, Sudan October 21, 2021.
What We’re Watching: Sudanese protesters vs each other, NBA vs China, EU vs Poland
Protests in Sudan: Protests are again shaking the Sudanese capital, as supporters of rival wings of the transitional government take to the streets. Back in 2019, after popular demonstrations led to the ouster of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir, a deal was struck between civilian activists and the army, in which a joint civilian-military government would run the country until fresh elections could be held in 2023. But now supporters of the military wing are calling on it to dissolve the government entirely, while supporters of the civilian wing are counter-protesting. Making matters worse, a pro-military tribal leader in Eastern Sudan has set up a blockade which is interrupting the flow of goods and food to the capital. The US, which backs the civilian wing, has sent an envoy to Khartoum as tensions rise, while Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are all vying for a piece as well.
NBA in hot water again with China: The NBA season is barely underway, and the league is already embroiled in a fresh political scandal involving China. Boston Celtics center Enes Kanter posted a video supporting Tibetan independence (a throwback issue to be sure, but hey the 1990s are popular again) and blasting Chinese President Xi Jinping as a "brutal dictator." He also posted, and wore, these absolutely fire "Free Tibet" sneakers. In response, the Chinese sports app Tencent promptly pulled all Celtics games and highlights. The NBA is wildly popular — and lucrative — in China, and the CCP knows it: back in 2019, Chinese state TV stopped broadcasting NBA games for months in response to an NBA team exec's pro-Hong Kong tweet, in a move that reportedly cost the league hundreds of millions of dollars. So what should the NBA do now? If they stand up for Kanter, they risk losing big money. If they don't, they look like they are kowtowing to a repressive government. Is it an impossible situation? Maybe, but it's only the latest values vs valuations struggle for an American company that does business in the world's largest market.
EU leaders talk Poland, energy: EU leaders are meeting in Brussels for a two-day summit where two items will dominate the agenda. First, how to respond to Poland's defiance of the bloc's rules, after the country's top court recently ruled that its own constitution trumps EU law. Brussels is fuming at this direct challenge to its power and values, and may withhold badly-needed COVID relief funds until Warsaw backs off. The "illiberal" Polish government, meanwhile, is in a pickle because EU membership is so popular among Poles they can't push Brussels too far, let alone seriously threaten to leave. The other big issue at the summit is how to deal with rising energy prices, an issue that has split the Union: the European Commission, Germany and others say the current price surge will be resolved once pandemic-related shortages are over, but Greece, Hungary, and Spain want the bloc to reform the way power is bought and sold across the EU. Both sides agree that Russia could do a lot more to help its top natural gas customers, but Vladimir Putin perhaps thinks it's precisely the best time to squeeze the EU amid a broader rift with NATO.A carnival float depicting leader of the ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) in Poland Jaroslaw Kaczynski and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the traditional "Rosenmontag" Rose Monday carnival parade in Duesseldorf, Germany, February 12, 2018.
The EU takes a swing at Poland and Hungary
The European Union is, for better or worse, the most ambitious experiment in human history in institutionalized multinational cooperation. Its success depends on the willingness of its members to abide by its rules.
In recent years, the populist-nationalist governments of former Communist bloc members Hungary and Poland have flouted some of those rules in order to boost their own popularity with citizens suspicious of the EU's liberal values on issues like immigration and minority rights. In response, the EU has scolded these "illiberal" governments and threatened forceful action – so far without much effect.
The fight between EU institutions and Poland and Hungary has escalated.
In Poland, the latest battle is over judicial authority. According to EU treaties, all union members are subject to EU laws and the final authority of the European Court of Justice. But Poland's constitutional court ruled last week that Poland's constitution trumps EU law, a direct challenge to the basis of EU membership.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has faced off with the EU over press freedom and minority rights. The latest row began when Hungary's parliament passed legislation that bans the display to minors of products that depict or promote homosexuality or gender transformation themes. The government says the law protects kids and Hungary's family values, while the European Commission says it undermines values of tolerance and individual freedom enshrined in European law.
In the past, picking fights with the EU has boosted the popularity of both Orbán and Poland's Law and Justice Party-led government, headed by Jaroslaw Kaczyński, by playing on the anger that social conservatives feel toward liberal elites in Brussels. That's the main reason these governments tend to welcome fights with the EU.
They also know that, no matter how frustrated EU officials become with challenges from Warsaw and Budapest, the EU can't kick them out. Ejection requires a unanimous vote of all 27 EU members. To protect their own interests, Poland would veto such a move against Hungary, and Hungary would do the same for Poland.
But… there are three main reasons to believe that this time it's different.
First, it appears EU officials have had enough. Poland's court ruling is too direct a challenge to EU rules to ignore, and Hungary's government has been picking fights with Brussels for years.
Second, the European leader most instrumental in persuading EU institutions to go easy on Poland and Hungary is now leaving the stage. Germany's Angela Merkel will soon be out of power, and the country's likely incoming center-left coalition government will be much less sympathetic to rule-of-law challenges from its Eastern neighbors.
Third, Brussels has a powerful new weapon. The European Commission can withhold large amounts of much-needed COVID recovery funds until these two governments prove they respect EU rules. That's 36 billion euros ($41.7 billion) for Poland and 7.2 billion euros for smaller Hungary. The Commission is already signaling that Poland and Hungary will have to offer serious and specific concessions before checks are cut. Initial disbursements have already been delayed.
The Polish and Hungarian governments have limited leverage to fight back. Opinion polls show that strong majorities in both countries favor continued EU membership — and both governments have acknowledged as much. In Poland, the court rulings sent hundreds of thousands of pro-EU Poles into the streets in protest.
And Hungary's Orbán faces a tough fight for re-election next year against a united opposition that has labelled the race a choice of "Orbán or Europe."
Both governments need only look toward the Czech Republic, where a surprise election result last weekend leaves euroskeptic, anti-immigration populist Andrej Babiš on the verge of losing power.
These fights will drag on into next year. But this time, Brussels may finally be fighting to win.
What We're Watching: Turkey's Afghanistan play, Indonesia as COVID epicenter, EU's rule of law report
Turkey's Afghanistan play: With the US withdrawal from Afghanistan nearly complete, many countries (and non-state actors) are vying for influence there. The latest player to enter the stage is Turkey, with president Recep Tayyip Erdogan proposing that Turkish troops defend and operate Kabul's international airport when the US is gone. Erdogan said that to make the plan work, the US would need to hand over logistical facilities to Ankara, and has called on Washington to back Turkey in ongoing diplomacy in Afghanistan, which it says is crucial to securing Kabul's airport, the main way into the country for the international community. The Americans, for their part, appear to be open to the idea. That's because it would mean handing over the headache of securing Afghanistan's only international airport to a fellow NATO member, reducing the likelihood of Afghanistan becoming completely shut off from the rest of the world in the (likely) event of a Taliban takeover. From Turkey's perspective, taking a more active role in stabilizing Afghanistan might earn it some goodwill from Washington and Brussels at a time when relations with both are at historic low points. The Taliban, meanwhile, said Turkey's pitch was "reprehensible."
Indonesia — COVID hot zone: Indonesia is now the epicenter of the global COVID crisis, overtaking Brazil this month in recording the most daily deaths from COVID-19. Indonesia, a country of 270 million, is now also registering more new cases than India. The worst outbreaks are on populous Java island, where more than half of all Indonesians live. The country's cumulative official death toll currently stands at over 74,000, but experts say that is certainly an undercount given scarce testing and contact tracing throughout the country. The current deadly surge comes as Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim country, celebrates the Eid al-Adha holiday, sparking fears of yet more infections spreading despite bans on gatherings in many places. What's more, just 6 percent of Indonesians are fully vaccinated, and mostly with the Chinese-made Sinovac shot, which has a lower efficacy rate than the European and American-made vaccines. (Over 100 healthcare workers died from COVID after being fully vaccinated with the Sinovac shot, according to one study.) Jakarta is now vying for Western made vaccines, which have proven to be more effective against the spreading Delta variant, and said it expects millions of doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot to arrive in the second half of this year.
Does the EU's rule of law report matter? When Ursula von der Leyen took the reins of the European Commission in 2019, she backed a new, annual rule of law report for the 27-member bloc as one of several tools to monitor — and prevent — democratic regression in member states. This year's reports, released on Tuesday, shine a light on the usual suspects: Poland and Hungary and their crackdowns on LGBTQ rights and undermining of judicial independence. The report also highlights attacks on the media in Malta and Slovenia, which currently holds the bloc's rotating presidency. But civil society advocates say that while the EU's report is welcome, it's also toothless because it lacks enforcement power and dishes out no real consequences for governments that fail to adhere to EU norms. The Commission, on the other hand, says the report is not meant to be a coercive tool, and that it serves its purpose of illuminating the problem by highlighting best — and worst — practices. We're watching for the responses of both Poland and Hungary, which are waiting on the EU to approve their spending plans for post-COVID recovery. (In order to unlock EU COVID relief funds, the bloc's 27 economic and finance ministers need to give the go ahead to member states' individual spending proposals. Poland and Hungary are still waiting.)